Koerner’s National Championship Game Pick: How I’m Betting Trevor Lawrence’s TD Prop for LSU vs. Clemson

I won't get to project Trevor Lawrence as an NFL quarterback until 2021, so I love the fact that I get to take my first shot at projecting him for the National Championship Game.

Now let's get to my pick on his passing touchdown prop for LSU vs. Clemson.

National Championship Game Prop Betting Pick

Trevor Lawrence Over/Under 2.5 Passing Touchdowns

Lawrence has averaged 2.57 pass touchdowns per game this season on an offense that averaged 45.3 points a game. The overall offense averaged 5.85 touchdowns per game, and with a team total of 30.5 points tonight, I am projecting the offense to score about 3.8 touchdowns against LSU.

Only 48.8% of Clemson's touchdowns came via the pass this season. A lot of that could be due to blowing out nearly every opponent, therefore I'm regressing them to an expected rate of 59% of their touchdowns to come via the pass tonight. That translates to 2.24 projected passing touchdowns for Lawrence.

Based on that projection, here's my probability distribution for exact number of touchdowns:

I'm getting a 61.2% chance of this going under, and we are getting plus odds on it at DraftKings. Sign me up for the under at those odds.

PICK: Under 2.5 Pass Touchdowns (+125)

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