The Nevada Wolf Pack take on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in Bowling Green, KY. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Western Kentucky is favored by -10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -400. The total is set at 55 points.
Here’s my Nevada vs. Western Kentucky predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 20, 2025.
Nevada vs Western Kentucky Prediction
- Nevada vs. Western Kentucky Pick: Western Kentucky Team Total Over 33.5
My Western Kentucky vs. Nevada best bet is on the Hilltoppers team total over. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Nevada vs Western Kentucky Odds
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -105 | 55 -110o / -110u | +320 |
| Western Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -115 | 55 -110o / -110u | -400 |
- Nevada vs Western Kentucky point spread: Western Kentucky -10.5
- Nevada vs Western Kentucky over/under: 55 points
- Nevada vs Western Kentucky moneyline: Nevada +320, Western Kentucky -400
Nevada vs Western Kentucky Pick, Betting Analysis
Nevada just had an absolutely gut wrenching loss at home against Middle Tennessee. The Wolf Pack controlled the game, as they were up 13-0 with six minutes remaining in the fourth quarter.
Middle Tennessee's Nicholas Vattiato took over late with a couple of long drives, and that resulted in a deflating defeat for the Wolf Pack.
Now they have to get up and travel across the country for this game.
The Nevada defense has some really troubling numbers, as it's 122nd in defensive success rate while Western Kentucky is 71st in offensive success rate. Nevada is also 101st nationally in finishing drives defensively while Western Kentucky is 30th nationally in offensive finishing drives.
When the Toppers get around the red zone, they typically score.
Meanwhile, Nevada is 111th in defensive havoc secured, which means Western Kentucky is going to be able to protect quarterback Maverick McIvor. He's going to be able to make his reads, assess the defense and sling it around at home.
The kicker for me is Nevada is 107th in pass play success rate surrendered. The Wolf Pack aren't going to be able to stop the pass, and McIvor is going to be able to go over the top to Matthew Henry. In fact, McIvor may throw for 400 yards.
This is just a brutal matchup for Nevada, as it's a bad travel spot and the crushing defeat to Middle Tennessee is just going to compound the issue.
McIvor's 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio is also superb, and with the Toppers being back at home — where they really play well — I expect him to continue his success.
I'm looking for the Toppers to put up a massive, massive number here, and we're getting the team total at 33.5. I would play the over on that, and I would also look at the team total over at 37.5 at +160.
I think we have room here, as the Toppers are going to put up a ton of points this week on Nevada.
Pick: Western Kentucky Team Total Over 33.5
