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The New Mexico Lobos take on the Hawai'i Warriors in Honolulu, Hawaii, on Saturday, Oct. 17. Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
New Mexico is favored by -15.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -800. Hawaii, meanwhile, enters as a +15.5 underdog and is +540 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 45.5 total points.
Here’s my New Mexico vs. Hawaii prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 17.
New Mexico vs Hawaii Prediction
- New Mexico vs. Hawaii Pick: PICK
My Hawaii vs. New Mexico best bet is on PICK. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
New Mexico vs Hawaii Odds
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15.5 -105 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -800 |
| Hawaii Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15.5 -115 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +540 |
- New Mexico vs Hawaii point spread: New Mexico -15.5 (-105), Hawaii +15.5 (-115)
- New Mexico vs Hawaii over/under: 44.5 (-110o / -110u)
- New Mexico vs Hawaii moneyline: New Mexico -800, Hawaii +540
New Mexico vs Hawaii College Football Preview
New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview: Mountain West Contenders
New Mexico has been incredible this season, sitting at 4-1 straight up and 5-0 against the spread. The Lobos are fresh off a bye week before hitting the critical stretch of their schedule hard in Mountain West play.
Head coach Jason Eck has this defense playing really inspired football, and the Lobos look poised to make a serious run to win the MW.
The defensive line has had an impact all season, as the front has registered 16 sacks and 43 tackles for loss.
Opponents are really struggling to run the ball against the Lobos. New Mexico is allowing just 101 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry this season.
The pass defense has also been very sound as well. The secondary doesn't allow explosives, and New Mexico has allowed only five touchdown passes while intercepting 12 passes. Facing this secondary will be a tough test for Hawaii this week.
The offense is a ball-control unit that operates at a slow pace while running the ball 70% of the time.
Luke Moga and Toa Fa’avae have split reps at quarterback this season, combining to complete 58% of their passes for 887 yards with eight touchdowns between the two.
The pass game doesn't put up a ton of explosive plays. Wide receiver Bailen George and tight end Cade Keith are the top two pass-catchers with a combined 25 catches.
The offensive line is serviceable in pass protection but not excellent.
The ground game has been strong, as New Mexico is averaging 209 yards per game running the football.
Scottre Humphrey has morphed into the lead back role we saw him take on at Montana State. Humphrey has racked up 332 yards and six rushing scores, while Kiefer Sibley and Cameron Mathews also share duties.
The pace will be interesting to watch, as UNM ran 70 plays against Mercyhurst in a blowout win. However, this team wants to be in the 60-62 play range while operating methodically.
Hawai'i Warriors Betting Preview: Falling Flat
Hawaii has been such a disappointment this season, as many thought the Rainbow Warriors would ascend toward Mountain West title contention.
However, this season has seen those goals already dashed, as Hawaii sits at 1-5 with a non-explosive passing game and an offensive line that can't hold up long enough to give quarterback Micah Alejado time to throw.
The Hawaii offense ranks 118th nationally in explosiveness, a stunning ranking given the system the Bows operate out of.
Negative plays have happened way too frequently, and because this offense can't sustain drives, Hawaii regularly experiences poor field position.
The run game is also nonexistent. The Bows are averaging just 83 yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry.
Pofele Ashlock is Hawaii’s best receiver, but he hasn't played a snap all season. Audric Harris and Carson Brown have also missed time, and the timing has been off with this new receiver group most of the year.
Kainoa Carvalho and Tama Uiliata are the leading receivers with a combined 560 receiving yards, but Hawaii has just six passing touchdowns, which is unbelievable halfway through the season.
The Hawaii defense has kept this squad in games this year, allowing just 21.8 points per game against non-P4 competition.
The Rainbow Warriors have seen a lot of run action, and the Bows are allowing 170 yards per game and 4.8 yards per rush. The secondary isn't strong and can be passed on, and the defensive front creates very little Havoc.
The pace of this game should be slow, and there's a chance the defense will have to keep Hawaii in this game.
New Mexico vs Hawaii Pick, Betting Analysis
This game opened with New Mexico listed as a 14.5-point favorite with a total that has been bet down from 46.5 to 44.5. I like Hawaii to stay under its posted team total of 14.5.
This Hawaii offense has been one of the least explosive passing offenses in the country, ranking 130th nationally.
The Bows have posted just eight passes that have gone for 30-plus yards all season. Without the threat of a downfield passing attack, everything has fallen on Alejado to be perfect with situational execution, but that hasn't been the case.
Hawaii is converting just 38% of third-down attempts this season, and because the Bows have had such little success on early downs, they've been in third-down situations a lot.
The bigger issue has been execution in the red zone, where Hawaii has scored touchdowns on just 7-of-20 trips. The Bows have gone for it on fourth-and-goal frequently, but the decisions haven't paid off, as Hawaii has been turned away empty-handed seven times this year.
New Mexico has the best defense in the country at preventing red-zone trips, allowing just two red-zone touchdowns on four trips all season, both the lowest marks in the country.
Without explosiveness out of this Hawaii offense, scoring is going to be exceptionally difficult.
This game will be played at a slow pace, with both teams working methodically. We should see sustained 22 MPH wind with gusts of 30 MPH or stronger, which will hamper deep passing and field-goal kicking.
Expect a conservative approach from New Mexico, and for that defense, which is fresh off a bye, to be strong on the Island.
Pick: Hawaii Team Total Under 14.5
