The Northern Illinois Huskies take on the UMass Minutemen in Amherst, Massachusetts, on Wednesday, Nov. 12. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Northern Illinois is favored by 11 points on the spread with a moneyline of -425. UMass, meanwhile, enters as a +11 underdog and is +325 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 43.5 total points.
Here’s my Northern Illinois vs. UMass prediction and college football picks for Wednesday, November 12.
Northern Illinois vs UMass Prediction
- Northern Illinois vs. UMass Pick: UMass Team Total Under 15.5
My UMass vs. Northern Illinois best bet is on the Minutemen to score under 15.5 points. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Northern Illinois vs UMass Odds
| Northern Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -425 |
| UMass Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +325 |
- Northern Illinois vs UMass Spread: Northern Illinois -11, UMass +11
- Northern Illinois vs UMass Over/Under: 43.5 Points
- Northern Illinois vs UMass Moneyline: Northern Illinois -425, UMass +325
Northern Illinois vs UMass College Football Betting Preview
Northern Illinois Huskies Betting Preview: Defense Trending Up
Northern Illinois was a popular preseason darkhorse to consider for the MAC title. And then the season started.
At 2-7, NIU will not be bowling, and head coach Thomas Hammock's time in DeKalb might be running out.
The Huskies kept most of their games within reason until they visited Toledo to open MACtion play and were blown to smithereens, 42-3.
Much of the pain comes from a difficult situation at quarterback. Josh Holst has seen the majority of snaps, but a 5-for-13 performance against the Rockets ended with Holst getting the hook in favor of Brady Davidson.
There wasn’t much of a difference, to say the least. NIU ranks dead last in Passing Success Rate on the season.
The problem is, the run game hasn’t offset the deficiencies in the passing game.
The Huskies have a below-average offensive line combined with a backfield with no home run potential — a new issue to arise at NIU after losing big play guys like Trayvon Rudolph and Antario Brown.
NIU has scored 21 points twice this season, once in a win (vs. Ball State) and once in a loss (the week before at Ohio). There’s just not much to be excited about on offense.
Fortunately for the Huskies, their defense has mostly kept pace, aside from games at Toledo and Ohio. Losing the coordinator out west this offseason wasn’t a huge step backward; Rob Harley has done a decent job with this unit.
NIU held Maryland to 20 points, Eastern Michigan to 16 points and San Diego State to six points. However, the Huskies went 0-3 in those games.
However, more talented offenses don’t have a problem moving the ball, especially through the air.
NIU’s defense ranks 97th in Passing Success Rate allowed and 109th in Sack Rate. NIU’s rushers can’t get to the quarterback in time, and the secondary isn’t good enough to lock down on the back end.
Nobody on the NIU roster has more than two sacks this year. Linebacker Quinn Urwiler is the nation’s second-leading tackler and is about as sure-handed as they come (8.3% whiff rate is far better than the national average). He’s usually the best player on the field.
Change is likely inbound with this program. There’s an outside chance at 4-8, but that’s almost certainly the ceiling, marking a second losing season in four years and a four-plus win regression from last season.
UMass Minutemen Betting Preview: Trying to Salvage a Lost Season
So, here we are. An FBS team so intensely bad that a touchdown separates it from the rest of the pack.
Following a 28-21 heartbreaker to Buffalo — a game UMass could not have scripted to go worse at the end than it did — the Minutemen have been noncompetitive and disinterested.
A 44-10 burying at Akron really highlights the depths this team has fallen to in 2025.
Remove a 47-yard scamper by backup quarterback Grant Jordan, and UMass rushed 26 times for 30 yards with a long of eight. Truly heinous stuff.
Not only is the roster by far the least talented in the FBS, but it’s also thin from injuries accumulated this season.
Multiple preseason starters in the secondary have missed time, and starting guard Kyle Brown is done for the year. It’s a roster that’s taking hits from injuries that absolutely cannot afford to do so.
Freshman AJ Hairston has taken over at quarterback, and it’s clear he’s not an FBS-level player. He averages less than five yards per attempt and has four touchdowns thrown on nearly 200 attempts. He has also added 100 rushing yards on just 23 attempts with three fumbles.
It doesn’t help that UMass is the single worst pass-blocking team in the country, per PFF grades. Hairston has been pressured a truly astounding 109 times on 228 dropbacks, about 48% of the time.
Running back Brandon Hood’s 179-yard outing against Buffalo is truly the only outlier this team has to hold onto. Hairston also hit a receiver for a 77-yard touchdown on a broken play.
Outside of that, UMass hasn’t exceeded 13 points against FBS competition once and has been held to 10 or fewer points in six of the remaining seven contests.
On defense, the lack of secondary depth plummeted this unit to 129th in Points Per Drive allowed and 136th in net yards per play.
It’s a decent tackling unit that limits explosive runs but is also easy to move the ball through the air against with frequent chunk plays.
Northern Illinois vs UMass Pick, Betting Analysis
UMass took market movement since opening as a +13.5 home underdog. With a low total set at 42.5 points, taking a home underdog with the possibility of some adverse weather makes sense.
What doesn’t make sense is spotting UMass 15.5 points scored in the game.
This is a team that’s so ineffective at scoring points, it took one enormous outlier performance to skew the entire season's total of rushing explosion to score 21.
Over 27% of UMass’ entire FBS scoring output on the season came in 19 minutes of gameplay and featured 167 yards of offense in two scoring plays.
NIU fields a defense with half a pulse — average by MAC standards, even — and we’re getting UMass to score a minimum twice, more likely three times. That’s a feat it’s accomplished once all season with the aforementioned outlier performance.
This is a simple handicap.
UMass’ offense is at historic levels of bad (looking at you, 2023 Iowa), down a few pieces to injury and is a part of an 0-9 team playing on a Tuesday night with potential mixed precipitation.
Weather forecasts for Amherst call for temperatures in the mid-30s, moderate sustained winds between 10-15 MPH and a low chance of mixed precipitation, likely in the form of snow by this hour. Classic MACtion weather.
But even if the night turns out to be perfectly clear, UMass has to hope that three broken plays afford it the ability to find the end zone.
I��ll fade that outcome against a defense that’s done its job limiting explosives on the season.
Pick: UMass Team Total Under 15.5
Northern Illinois vs UMass Betting Trends
