The Oklahoma Sooners take on the Texas Longhorns in Dallas, TX, on Saturday, Oct. 11. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Texas is favored by 1 point on the spread with a moneyline of -120. Oklahoma, meanwhile, comes in as a +1 underdog and is +100 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 43 points.
Here’s my Oklahoma vs. Texas prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 11.
Oklahoma vs Texas Prediction
- Oklahoma vs. Texas Pick: Oklahoma ML -110 or Better
My Texas vs. Oklahoma best bet is on the Sooners to win outright. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Oklahoma vs Texas Odds
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | -120 |
- Oklahoma vs Texas Spread: Texas -1, Oklahoma +1
- Oklahoma vs Texas Over/Under: 43 Points
- Oklahoma vs Texas Moneyline: Oklahoma +100, Texas -120
Oklahoma vs Texas College Football Betting Preview
Oklahoma Sooners Betting Preview: Venables' Move Paying Off
There seems to be little doubt about the status of quarterback John Mateer, as the market took an early-week turn with steam on the Sooners.
The Washington State transfer suffered an injury against Auburn on Sept. 20, which resulted in surgery on his throwing hand.
Mateer hasn't committed a turnover-worthy play since Week 2 against Michigan, but offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle may have him limited to an extensive ground package in this one.
The senior has generated 156 yards on designed calls, posting five rushing touchdowns on the season.
Brent Venables' move to call plays on defense has paid off, as Oklahoma fields one of the best units in the nation. The Sooners rank top-six in Havoc, Success Rate allowed, Quality Drives allowed and Finishing Drives allowed.
A poor grade in rush explosives is due to playing Michigan and Auburn, as the Sooners allowed five rushing attempts of at least 12 yards against those two foes.
Oklahoma has been highly efficient against any opposing run concepts and also ranks top-30 in coverage for multiple defenses.
Pivoting between a nickel and 4-3, Oklahoma has played one of the highest rates of Cover 2 nationally with safeties Peyton Bowen and Robert Spears-Jennings.
Texas Longhorns Betting Preview: Struggling Under Arch
The Texas offense continues to struggle under quarterback Arch Manning, ranking mid-FBS in Success Rate and Quality Drives. The freshman was lit up in "The Swamp," committing turnover-worthy plays against Florida.
Despite a 2:1 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions, Manning has an even number of big-time throws and turnover-worthy plays (10).
Manning has struggled against certain defensive looks, especially those of zone, Cover 1 and man.
The rushing attack has been impotent in power concepts, with a low 44% Success Rate while averaging a negative play on one out of every six attempts.
Manning is the leading rusher on the team thanks to scrambles, as halfback Jerrick Gibson averages a poor 2.3 yards after first contact.
The Texas offense posted two methodical drives against Ohio State; one possession consisted of 10 plays. Since Week 1, Texas has combined to create just two more methodical drives against the defenses of San Jose State, UTEP, Sam Houston and Florida.
Defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski's nickel defense has been forced to carry the water and ranks fifth in Quality Drives allowed.
Texas has produced a top-15 coverage and pass rush grade, making the Longhorns one of the most successful defenses in passing downs in FBS.
The biggest contrast between the offense and defense comes on third downs, where the defense is 17th compared to the offense's rank of 116th.
Oklahoma vs Texas Pick, Betting Analysis
The clearest side to handicap is the Texas offense against the Oklahoma defense, as outside zone and counter concepts have had middling success for the Longhorns this season.
Oklahoma ranks as the top defense nationally in rush efficiency, particularly against the inside zone.
If there's an avenue that's in favor of Texas on the ground, the Sooners have seen minimal counter and misdirection this season.
The Longhorns have played into passing downs frequently this season, as Manning has mid-FBS ranks against Cover 2. Although Oklahoma doesn't play many snaps in Cover 1, the tendency has troubled the Texas quarterback all season.
Sarkisian has been unable to get scoring opportunities on the board, as 32 drives beyond the opponent's 40-yard line have produced an average of 3.7 points.
Mateer's role is unclear heading into the Red River Rivalry. The status of his surgically repaired throwing hand may lead to limited passing attempts.
The Texas defense has a mid-FBS Success Rate against zone read and counter concepts, which are both expected to be a part of the Sooners offense, led by running back Tory Blaylock.
Oklahoma hasn't been able to produce any consistent rush explosives behind an offensive line that's 89th in Line Yards. The Sooners rank 95th in tackles for loss allowed and have dropped the ball on the carpet six times this season.
Texas can win this ball game in many different ways, as Oklahoma's offense has coughed up the ball and will now have Mateer with a repaired throwing hand. The Havoc allowed factor favors Texas, as the Oklahoma offense ranks 88th in that area.
The Sooners defense has been elite in Success Rate allowed, but missed tackles are a concern. Auburn and Michigan combined to force 26 missed tackles against the Sooners.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings projects Oklahoma to be favored by a single point, giving the Sooners a small market edge. Texas would need mistakes and field position — combined with stellar red-zone play calling from Sarkisian — to beat Oklahoma.
Oklahoma may have just enough with Mateer's legs, just as Florida's offense was revived at seven yards per play in a Week 6 victory over the Longhorns.
Pick: Oklahoma ML -110 or Better
Oklahoma vs Texas Betting Trends
