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The Oklahoma State Cowboys take on the Houston Cougars in Houston, Texas. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
Houston is favored by -4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -196. The total is set at 61.5 points.
Here’s my Oklahoma State vs. Houston prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 17, 2026.
Oklahoma State vs Houston Prediction
- Oklahoma State vs. Houston Pick: Over 62.5
My Houston vs. Oklahoma State best bet is on the Over. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Oklahoma State vs Houston Odds
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 61.5 -115o / -106u | +160 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 61.5 -115o / -106u | -196 |
- Oklahoma State vs Houston point spread: Houston -4.5 (-110 ), Oklahoma State +4.5 (-110)
- Oklahoma State vs Houston over/under: 61.5 (-115o / -106u)
- Oklahoma State vs Houston moneyline: Oklahoma State +160, Houston -196
Oklahoma State vs Houston College Football Preview
Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Preview: Pokes on the Rise
Drew Mestemaker spent two years at North Texas before transferring to Oklahoma State along with 15 of his teammates — most notably running back Caleb Hawkins and wide receivers Wyatt Young and Miles Coleman.
However, if he so chooses, this may be Mestemaker's only year in Stillwater as the redshirt sophomore is playing himself into the first-round discussion of next spring's NFL Draft. After a rocky start against Tulsa, Mestemaker has thrown for 10 touchdowns and one interception in his last three games.
He has thrown for 300 yards in each of his past four games, and his 1,575 passing yards are second in the Big 12 and 11th in the FBS. His chemistry with Young has carried over to Stillwater as he leads the team with 27 catches for 462 yards to go along with four touchdowns. However, Justin Bowick is right behind him with 26 catches for 442 yards and five touchdowns. The Cowboys are 15th in Passing Success Rate.
Despite having such a prolific passing attack, Oklahoma State is still balanced as it runs the ball on 53% of its offensive snaps. When it does run, Oklahoma State has not been particularly explosive, ranking 135th in Rushing Explosiveness, but it is 37th in Rushing Success Rate.
Mestemaker actually has the team's longest rush of the year with a 75-yard scamper in the upset of Oregon. However, Hawkins is leading the team with 524 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 4.9 yards per carry.
As much as Oklahoma State has improved offensively, it arguably has made even better gains on the defensive side of the ball. After ranking in the 100s in most defensive categories last season, Oklahoma State ranks in the top 50 in scoring defense and total defense. It has been particularly strong defending the pass, ranking 32nd in passing yards allowed per game and 25th in Passing Success Rate Allowed.
Giving up big plays and defending the run remain areas of improvement as OSU ranks 108th in Passing Explosiveness Allowed and 85th in Rushing Success Rate. Still, the Cowboys are 12th in red zone defense.
They have to like where they're heading into this week's top 20 showdown.
Houston Cougars Betting Preview: Offense Firing on All Cylinders
Oklahoma State is not the only high-powered offense in this game, as Houston enters this game averaging 40 points per game. It has done so with balance, averaging 251.8 passing yards per game and 230 rushing yards per game. Quarterback Connor Weigman is on pace for a career year, completing 66.7% of his passes with 15 touchdown passes against just one interception.
Last week, he tossed four touchdown passes for the fourth time in his career and second this season as the Cougars cruised 35-16 over Kansas State. However, this time, all four of them went to tight end Patrick Overmyer, who tied the NCAA record for touchdowns in a game by a tight end with Isaiah Likely.
Overmyer is up to six touchdowns on the season to go along with 33 receptions and 400 yards. Receivers Amare Thomas, Trent Walker, and Koby Young are all over 200 yards on the season.
Re'Shaun Sanford II and Makhi Hughes have nearly combined for 800 rushing yards and five touchdowns on five yards per carry. Hughes is back with head coach Willie Fritz after a year at Oregon. The run game could get a lot of work this week if the strategy is to keep Mestemaker and Co. off the field.
The Cougars rank fourth in Rushing Success Rate, fifth in Passing Success Rate, and seventh in Havoc Allowed. The defensive numbers are not as pretty, as Houston ranks 55th in Success Rate Allowed and 102nd in Passing Explosiveness Allowed.
Giving up big plays could be an issue this week, but Houston does excel at stopping the run as it ranks fourth in the FBS, surrendering 74 rushing yards per game.
On the other hand, Houston could take Hawkins away and make Oklahoma State one-dimensional on offense. On the other hand, that would put more pressure on a pass defense that is allowing 248 yards per game.
Oklahoma State vs Houston Pick, Betting Analysis
Ranging between 62 and 63.5, this total is one of the highest on the board on Saturday and for good reason.
Oklahoma State's last three games against Power 4 opponents have had at least 65 points, and two have reached exactly 70. The Cowboys are 3-0 to the over in that span.
While Houston's last two games have finished under, it is 3-2 to the over this season. The Cougars have done their part, having scored 35 points in three of their first five games.
Both of these offenses can score quickly and can beat you through the air or on the ground. Both offenses will have the advantage against these defenses, and this game should see at least 63 points.
Pick: Over 62.5 (Play to 63.5)
