The No. 13 Ole Miss Rebels (4-0, 2-0 SEC) host the No. 4 LSU Tigers (4-0, 1-0 SEC) in a top-15 SEC showdown on Saturday afternoon. The game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET and can be seen on ABC.
The Rebels are coming off a 45-10 shellacking of Tulane last week, while the Tigers decimated Southeastern Louisiana by a score of 56-10.
With a ranked matchup on deck this week, let's take a look at the Ole Miss vs. LSU odds and college football picks for this Week 5 matchup on Saturday, Sept. 27.
Ole Miss vs. LSU Odds
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
By Pete Ruden
A top-15 SEC showdown. This is the kind of game that makes a college football Saturday great.
LSU snuck by Ole Miss, 29-26, in overtime a season ago, but this isn't the same Rebels team.
Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin has turned to Trinidad Chambliss at the quarterback position after Austin Simmons led the team to begin the season.
Chambliss has completed 67.7% of his passes for 719 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions, while rushing for another 195 yards and two scores.
Now, the question is: Can he go toe-to-toe with Garrett Nussmeier?
In a wide-open Heisman race, the LSU signal-caller still has an opportunity to secure an invitation to New York for the most coveted individual award in all of college athletics.
So, who has the advantage here? Brian Kelly and Nussmeier or Kiffin and Chambliss?
We polled 10 of our college football writers to get their take on the Ole Miss vs. LSU spread and over/under. Let's dive in and see what they think.
Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: LSU +1.5
Saturday’s top-15 SEC showdown features a scenario in which the betting markets and AP Poll disagree on the favorite.
No. 4 LSU is catching a point against No. 13 Ole Miss.
The Action Analytics staff will gladly take +1 on the visitors. LSU sits 11 spots ahead of Ole Miss in Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s betting power ratings by a full 3.5 points.
The Tigers have covered six of the last nine against the Rebels, including last year’s overtime win as four-point ‘dogs.
LSU has already shown up on the road in a big way this year, defeating Clemson as an underdog in a marquee night game.
The Tigers defense figures to be a great challenge for Ole Miss and quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who’s had fun running up points against the likes of Arkansas and Tulane.
Models built by Action Network's Director of Research, Evan Abrams, also support LSU to not only cover but win the game.
The “Short Road Dogs” angle popped on the Tigers, as this profitable system recommends betting short visiting teams who may be flying under the radar in certain spread and over/under ranges.
Finally, our in-house PRO Projections completely disagree with the LSU-Ole Miss line. Those with access to our spreads and totals already know what we expect to happen in The Grove on Saturday afternoon.
Over/Under Pick
Over 56.5 | 3 Picks |
Pass | 3 Picks |
Under 56.5 | 4 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Under 56.5
There were a lot of expectations surrounding LSU’s offense this season. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier was a possible Heisman candidate, and an early-season showdown with Clemson and Cade Klubnik seemed to cement him as a front-runner.
Alas, as we have learned, Clemson is not a good football team this year, and LSU’s offense is definitely not humming.
The Tigers rank 131st in Havoc allowed, in the bottom 50 in Success Rate and in the bottom 15 in Points Per Opportunity.
This LSU team has all the makings of a classic Brian Kelly bust season: star power and high preseason expectations before crushing disappointment against competent football teams.
Make no mistake: Ole Miss is a competent football team.
Lane Kiffin has done a great job coaching this team to a 4-0 start, considering they’ve played two bona fide SEC teams in Kentucky and Arkansas.
However, this is not the pass-happy offense we're used to seeing out of Kiffin. The Rebels run the ball at the 31st-highest clip in the country, and with good reason. They rank 19th in Success Rate and 39th in Rushing PPA.
However, they're methodical with it, as they rank just 89th in Rushing Explosiveness.
I think this is part of the reason Trinidad Chambliss is a better fit for this particular Ole Miss team. He's a better runner and also takes much better care of the ball than Austin Simmons, as he has no turnover-worthy plays this season.
Look for offensive incompetence out of LSU and a strong, methodical run game for Ole Miss to carry us to this under.
