The Oregon Ducks take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in University Park, Pennsylvania, on Saturday, Sept. 27. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
Penn State is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -170. Oregon, meanwhile, comes in as a +3.5 underdog and is +140 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 52 points.
Here’s my Oregon vs. Penn State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 27.
Oregon vs Penn State Prediction
- Oregon vs. Penn State Pick: Penn State -3 (-120 or Better)
My Penn State vs. Oregon best bet is on the Nittany Lions to win the game outright. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Oregon vs Penn State Odds
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 52 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 52 -110o / -110u | -170 |
- Oregon vs Penn State Spread: Penn State -3.5, Oregon +3.5
- Oregon vs Penn State Over/Under: 52 Points
- Oregon vs Penn State Moneyline: Oregon +140, Penn State -170
Oregon vs Penn State College Football Betting Preview
Oregon Ducks Betting Preview: Quality All Around
The Ducks have been nothing but phenomenal to open the season, despite non-covering efforts the past two games against Northwestern and Oregon State.
The offense ranks top-five in pass blocking and Havoc allowed, along with Quality Drives and Finishing Drives.
UCLA transfer quarterback Dante Moore has completed 75% of his passes, producing 10 touchdowns and just a single turnover-worthy play.
True freshman Dakorien Moore has been the benefactor, averaging 3.2 yards per route run while leading all targets in first downs and missed tackles forced.
Defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi has kept Oregon consistent, providing stiff resistance against the pass with a bit of leakiness against the run.
The Penn State offense has shown a severe struggle in creating pass explosives, and now heads directly into a Ducks secondary that's top-15 in coverage and defensive pass efficiency.
The area of concern comes against the run, specifically against outside zone read concepts. Oregon has a low 43% Success Rate against teams using outside zone, also fielding a Stuff Rate rank of ninth in FBS.
Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Preview: Can PSU Win the Big One?
Penn State has put up impeccable offensive numbers against one of the easiest schedules in the nation.
The rushing attack of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen continues to power the offense after a semifinal run just a season ago. Allen has had the better season to date, averaging 5.5 yards after first contact while forcing 14 missed tackles on 34 rushing attempts.
Quarterback Drew Allar enters the game off a horrendous Week 3 performance in which he produced two turnover-worthy plays against Villanova.
Both transfer wide receivers Kyron Hudson and Trebor Pena have failed to post explosive numbers in the passing game, leaving the bulk of the offense to the ground attack.
As for the defense, the switch from Tom Allen to Jim Knowles at defensive coordinator has seen zero slip in the defensive numbers.
The Nittany Lions are second-best nationally in Finishing Drives allowed and own top-10 ranks in Havoc, Defensive Line Yards and hard stops, along with a rank of 21st in tackling.
Cornerback play will be crucial against Oregon. Both Daryus Dixson and Jahmir Joseph are two of the highest-graded coverage players at their position. King Mack, a top-20 individual tackler of all safeties, per PFF, complements that duo.
Oregon vs Penn State Pick, Betting Analysis
The handicap of Oregon vs. Penn State comes down to whether each defense can win specific battles.
Oregon consistently wins the outside battle with Moore's passing to wideout targets. However, thanks to the coverage provided from Dixson and Joseph, the Ducks will be throwing into one of the most volatile defenses in FBS.
Expect the Nittany Lions to continue running plenty of Cover 3, which should keep Oregon from creating explosives.
Penn State holds a supreme advantage in the running game. Oregon has struggled to contain outside zone read against Oregon State, Northwestern and Oklahoma State.
The Nittany Lions have dominated with outside zone, averaging a 66% Success Rate against opposing defenses.
Look for Allen and Singleton to take over the Penn State offense against an Oregon defensive line that has failed against subpar competition.
Pick: Penn State -3 (-120 or Better)
