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The Penn State Nittany Lions take on the Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor, MI. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Michigan is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -220. The total is set at 42.5 points.
Here’s my Penn State vs. Michigan prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 17, 2026.
Penn State vs Michigan Prediction, Pick
- Penn State vs. Michigan Pick: Penn State Team Total Under 17.5 Points (-118)
My Michigan vs. Penn State best bet is on the Nittany Lions to score under 17.5 points. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Penn State vs Michigan Odds: Spread & Total
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -115 | 42.5 -114o / -106u | +184 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -105 | 42.5 -114o / -106u | -225 |
- Penn State vs Michigan point spread: Michigan -6.5 (-105), Penn State +6.5 (-115)
- Penn State vs Michigan over/under: 42.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Penn State vs Michigan moneyline: Penn State +180, Michigan -220
Penn State vs Michigan NCAFF Preview
Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Preview: Three and Counting
One injury can quickly derail a season, especially when the team is thin at the position. Penn State, for example, is 0-3 since Koby Howard went down with an injury. When Howard was healthy, he was able to flip field position in the blink of an eye, averaging nearly 30 yards per reception.
Until Howard returns from injury, Penn State will continue to plummet down the board in success rate and explosiveness while lacking the big-play talent that's needed to stretch the field.
When an offense is overly reliant on methodical drives, the probability of stalling out increases.
To make matters worse for the Nittany Lions, James Peoples and Carson Hansen have been unable to keep the offense afloat, as they enter Week 7 ranked well below league average in rush success rate, PPA and explosiveness.
With neither facet of the offense clicking, Penn State will continue to be vulnerable to falling into prolonged scoring lulls.
On the other side of the ball, the Nittany Lions' defense has been unable to mask the regression on offense while falling outside the top 70 in points per opportunity and explosiveness.
Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview: Quarterback in Quicksand
After losing to Iowa at the last second, Michigan was unable to get back up off the mat against Minnesota, losing to the Golden Gophers 20-14.
Bryce Underwood was abysmal in the Wolverines' stunning loss, throwing two back-breaking interceptions.
Minnesota was also able to neutralize Underwood’s legs, holding the Michigan QB to two yards per carry.
With Underwood under center, Michigan has been unable to get into a groove, ranking near the bottom of the board in success rate, explosiveness, finishing drives and havoc allowed.
His inability to take care of the ball has been a thorn in the Wolverines' side, spotting the opponent with generous field position.
Underwood’s lack of production through the air also allows opposing defenses to stack the box at a high rate to help stop the run. When the middle is stacked, it’s much easier to spy, keeping an outside linebacker on the edge of the line to bottle up Underwood before he's able to get out to the open field.
Fortunately for Michigan, the defense has fared far better at this point in the season, ranking in the top 10 in defensive success rate and finishing drives.
While the front seven does give up explosive runs at a stunningly high rate, the Wolverines are able to mask it by taking advantage of the shortened field, holding opponents to just 1.93 points per opportunity.
Penn State vs Michigan College Football Week 7 Pick, Best Bet
This Saturday’s Big Ten tilt has lost its luster, as Michigan and Penn State are limping into the contest. While the Nittany Lions are already out of contention for the playoffs, the Wolverines are still clinging on for dear life, needing to go undefeated the rest of the way.
Before we get ahead of ourselves, Michigan must take care of business this weekend. Luckily for the Wolverines, the defense has a great opportunity to hold Penn State off the scoreboard by using the pressure up front to get the ball out of Becht’s hands shortly after the snap.
When Becht is forced to weave the ball through tight windows, the amount of havoc in his throws will skyrocket, leading to turnover-worthy plays.
The Nittany Lions' lack of production on the ground will also allow the Wolverines to stretch out in coverage, smothering Becht’s passing lanes at multiple levels of the field.
Penn State doesn't possess the explosiveness that's needed to convert at a consistent rate.
With no clear path to the red zone, the Nittany Lions will struggle to get into scoring position while bleeding the clock, making the under on the team total worth a wager at no lower than 17.5.
If Howard is able to suit up, then reduce the size of your wager.
Pick: Penn State Team Total Under 17.5 Points
Penn State vs Michigan Betting Trends
