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Pitt vs Duke Odds & Prediction: Bet This Home Favorite

Pitt vs Duke Odds & Prediction: Bet This Home Favorite article feature image

Via Nicholas Faulkner/Getty Images. Pictured: Duke Blue Devils running back Jaquez Moore (9) runs for a touchdown during the college football game between the Duke Blue Devils and the Clemson Tigers on September 4, 2023 at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, NC.

Pitt vs Duke Odds

Saturday, Nov. 25
12 p.m. ET
ACC Network
Pitt Odds
-110o / -110u
Duke Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

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The Duke Blue Devils face the Pitt Panthers at Wallace Wade Stadium on Saturday in an ACC clash. At 6-5, Duke is waiting to see which bowl game it will play in, while Pitt is just hoping to end a disappointing season on a two-game winning streak.

Both teams are looking to end on a high note, and as Pitt showed earlier this season when it beat Louisville, anything can happen in the ACC, even if this game isn't on the CW Network.

Find my betting pick and prediction for Pitt vs Duke below.

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Pittsburgh Panthers

After five consecutive winning seasons, the wheels have fallen off for Pitt this season. The Panthers just could not get things figured out on offense, and that put them in a huge hole from a jump; now they are 3-8.

While some teams with similar records to Pitt show some fight at times, six of Pitt's eight losses have been by multiple scores. This offense is not a pretty watch, and it really hasn't mattered who's been under center because neither Phil Jurkovec nor Christian Veilleux have played well.

Third-stringer Nate Yarnell looked decent in the Panthers' win over Boston College last weekend (11-19, 207 yards, TD), but he wasn't asked to do much, so it remains to be seen how he plays against Duke.

Unsurprisingly, Pitt is 129th in Passing Success Rate and 132nd in Quality Drives, which are both absolutely terrible. The offensive stats paint an ugly picture, but wide receiver Bub Means (636 yards, five touchdowns) and running back Rodney Hammond Jr. (526 yards, four touchdowns, 5.0 yards per carry) are capable of making plays each week.

The Panthers defense has been much more competent, and it's a shame their efforts have been rendered useless. Despite getting little help from the offense, Pitt ranks 29th in Rush Success Rate Allowed and 32nd in Finishing Drives Allowed. Samuel Okunlola and Shayne Simon lead the Panthers front seven with five sacks apiece.

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Duke Blue Devils

Oh, what could have been for Duke football if Riley Leonard didn't get injured against Notre Dame.

The Blue Devils just haven't looked the same since Leonard went down, but to their credit, they have hung on just enough to clinch a trip to a bowl game, which shouldn't be taken for granted in Durham.

Interestingly, Duke's offense has been effective in its last two losses. The defense just couldn't get the job done in those defeats to North Carolina and Virginia, but freshman quarterback Grayson Loftis acquitted himself well by throwing for five touchdowns and one interception in that span. The Blue Devils will need another strong game from him to finish the season 7-5, and that shouldn't be too much to ask.

Loftis has been aided by a strong running game in his past three starts, and that should continue since Jordan Waters (722 yards, 12 touchdowns, 5.4 yards per carry) and Jaquez Moore (591 yards, five touchdowns, 6.1 yards per carry) are both having good seasons.

Coach Mike Elko is known for his defensive prowess, and that has shown up for Duke. The Blue Devils defense is 34th in Havoc Rate, 40th in Quality Drives Allowed and 43rd in Pass Success Rate Allowed.

Pitt vs Duke

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Pitt and Duke match up statistically:

Pitt Offense vs. Duke Defense
Rush Success4879
Line Yards9392
Pass Success12943
Finishing Drives9746
Quality Drives13240
Duke Offense vs. Pitt Defense
Rush Success8029
Line Yards6233
Pass Success5990
Finishing Drives2532
Quality Drives6352
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling93101
PFF Coverage7237
Special Teams SP+9851
Middle 810444
Seconds per Play28.0 (88)28.1 (92)
Rush Rate49.9% (102)56.6% (34)

Pitt vs Duke

Betting Pick & Prediction

Most sportsbooks are favoring Duke by six points, and that makes perfect sense to me. Even though the Blue Devils lost their last two games, they have at least looked competent without Leonard, and that can go a long way against this Pitt team.

I just can't take the Panthers here, either. They have stacked uncompetitive losses throughout the season, so as far as I'm concerned, their win over Boston College is an anomaly. This team was beaten comfortably by Syracuse — need I say more?

The potential motivational factors help Duke as well. Pitt just won last week, so is it going to be fired up to play a noon ET game at a half-full Wallace Wade Stadium when it knows it won't go bowling? I doubt it.

Duke has been the better team all season, with or without Leonard, so roll with the Blue Devils in this one.

Pick: Duke -6

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