Wilson: Projecting Week 2 College Football Point Spreads

Sep 02, 2018 7:24 AM EDT
  • Oddsmakers will release the opening spreads for Week 2's college football matchups on Sunday around 3 p.m. ET.
  • By comparing our projected point spreads to the numbers that the books actually post, you can find betting value before the lines adjust.
  • Notre Dame projects to be a 37.5-point favorite against Ball State. The Irish are in a hangover spot after their victory over Michigan.

Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee. Let this column serve as a your first look at the projected point spreads for Week 2’s college football matchups.

When the real lines come out later on Sunday, I’ll compare my power-rated spreads to what oddsmakers posted to find betting value.

Be sure to follow me in The Action Network app to get alerts whenever I make a pick off these numbers.


Week 2 Point Spread Projections

Situational Edges I’m Eyeing

  • Ball State is healthy and its offense looked great in Week 1. The Cardinals should be a big underdog against Notre Dame. The Irish are in a hangover spot off a huge victory against Michigan.
  • Appalachian State, North Carolina, UMass, and Cincinnati all have back-to-back travel in Week 2
  • Bowling Green covered Pinnacle’s closing line against Oregon, and returns home to catch a Maryland team off a Texas upset

A Few Other Week 2 Notes

  • Kentucky has lost 31 straight to Florida straight up, including last year’s one-point loss
  • QB Nick Fitzgerald returns for Mississippi State after being suspended for the opener. Our metrics suggest the Bulldogs should be double-digit favorites when they travel to Kansas State.
Credit:

Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Notre Dame defensive lineman Khalid Kareem (53) and wide receiver Chase Claypool (83)

Follow Collin Wilson on Twitter
@_Collin1

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OPEN
CURR
# BETS
-2.5
44
-1.5
41.5
55
-4.5
53.5
-2.5
-3
54.5
-3
51.5
-6
66.5
-4.5
59
48
-11
50
-12
-2.5
73
-3
73
67.5
-5
59.5
-5
-3
53.5
-2
49
-1.5
57.5
-1
61
55
-3.5
56
-2
61
-3.5
57.5
-5
41
-2
39.5
PK
56.5
-3
55
-4.5
-3
47
-3.5
48
-6.5
55
-4
55
54.5
-5
54.5
-3.5
-7
74
-1.5
67.5
54.5
-6.5
55
-3.5
50.5
-6
50.5
-7.5
-6.5
55
-5.5
54.5
-2
58.5
-2
57.5
56
-11
55
-13.5
79
-13.5
80
-14
-6.5
53.5
-5.5
53.5
-6.5
52
-6.5
52
48
-1.5
48
-3
-10
71
-8
74.5
45
-6.5
46
-7
58.5
-4.5
58.5
-6.5
-5
44.5
-7
44
-8
54.5
-7.5
55.5
48
-4
47.5
-7
58.5
-5
58
-6.5
58
-10.5
58
-13.5

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