Sam Houston vs Liberty, Prediction & Picks | The Team Total to Bet
Lee Coleman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Amarian Williams of Liberty.
Sam Houston vs Liberty Odds
| Sam Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21.5 -115 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +900 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21.5 -105 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -1600 |
Sam Houston has long been one of the top FCS programs. However, it's gone 5-8 over the past two seasons and sits at 0-4 this year as it transitions to FBS.
Seeking their first win of the season, the Bearkats hit the road to battle the undefeated Liberty Flames.
Liberty has been successful in recent years and hasn't missed a beat with Jamey Chadwell now at the helm. The Flames have won all four games by double digits and are also 4-0 against the spread.
So, where does the betting value lie in this Thursday night college football matchup? Let's dive into the Sam Houston vs Liberty odds and make a pick and prediction in this college football betting preview for Oct. 5.
Sam Houston's defense is FBS-caliber, but its offense isn't. It scored just 10 points over the first three games, but the Bearkats enjoyed an offensive breakout last week, scoring 28 points and racking up 435 yards in an overtime loss to Jacksonville State.
Still, the overall numbers aren't pretty.
The Bearkats rank last in FBS in Success Rate and are averaging just 3.6 yards per play. They've been even less effective running the ball, averaging just two yards per carry. They also don't create many big plays, ranking 117th in explosiveness.
Running back John Gentry leads the teams in carries and ranks second with 11 receptions. Wide receiver Noah Smith, who is averaging nine yards per reception, leads the team with 17 catches and a touchdown.
Sam Houston's defense has been impressive at times this season, holding BYU to 14 points and Air Force to 13 in its first two games. Both programs have scored at least 27 points in every other game this season.
Sam Houston ranks 22nd in both Rushing Success Rate and defending explosiveness and sit 24th in Line Yards. Senior linebacker Trevor Williams leads the team with 48 tackles, including three tackles for loss. He has a lot to do with the Bears ranking fourth in PFF tackling grade.
PFF isn't as kind to the Bearkats' secondary. That unit ranks 91st in coverage grade but 56th in Pass Success Rate. It also has to cover for a bit longer, as the team has posted just three sacks this year.
If the Bearkats can't get much pressure this week, they'll have trouble slowing down Liberty's passing attack.
Liberty has averaged 30 points or more per game in four of the past five seasons. With Chadwell at the helm, it's averaging 40 points per game and ranks 13th in FBS in scoring offense. It has done so with a balanced attack, averaging over seven yards per play and 200 yards both passing and rushing.
The Flames have created big plays in the passing game and rank 18th in passing explosiveness. Quarterback Kaidon Salter is averaging 10 yards per attempt and has thrown 11 touchdown passes against just one interception.
His top targets, Treon Sibley and CJ Daniels, are each averaging over 20 yards per catch and have two touchdowns apiece.
Salter has also been a big part of Liberty's running game, racking up 268 yards and five touchdowns. Meanwhile, Quinton Cooley leads the team with 323 yards on the ground. Liberty's top four backs are each averaging over six yards per carry, and Salter isn't far behind at 5.7.
Liberty sits 84th in rushing explosiveness but 22nd in Success Rate. Its steady ground attack keeps the offense on schedule and sets up deep shots in the passing game.
The Flames have also done a good job up front, as they rank 24th in Line Yards and sixth in Havoc Allowed. Thanks to the solid line play, Salter has been sacked just three times on the year.
Conversely, Liberty's defense has done a good job of getting after opposing quarterbacks, ranking fifth nationally in Havoc and averaging 2.5 sacks per game. In fact, eight different players have at least one sack.
Teams can run on Liberty's 4-2-5 base, as it ranks 80th in Rushing Success Rate defensively. However, its nickel package has done wonders in the passing game, helping it rank 18th in Passing Success Rate.
Liberty is tied for third nationally with 12 turnovers, including 10 interceptions. Four different players have two, including Kobe Singleton, who returned one for a touchdown.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Sam Houston and Liberty match up statistically:
Sam Houston Offense vs. Liberty Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 132 | 80 | |
| Line Yards | 130 | 96 | |
| Pass Success | 131 | 18 | |
| Havoc | 103 | 5 | |
| Finishing Drives | 124 | 52 | |
| Quality Drives | 133 | 21 |
Liberty Offense vs. Sam Houston Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 22 | 57 | |
| Line Yards | 24 | 108 | |
| Pass Success | 51 | 56 | |
| Havoc | 6 | 129 | |
| Finishing Drives | 99 | 69 | |
| Quality Drives | 17 | 54 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 4 | 106 |
| PFF Coverage | 91 | 21 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 98 | 73 |
| Middle 8 | 107 | 77 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.5 (110) | 28.8 (99) |
| Rush Rate | 55.1% (53) | 65.6% (8) |
Sam Houston vs Liberty
Betting Pick & Prediction
After opening at 17.5, this line is now at 20.5 points. For Liberty to cover, it will likely need to score 34 points, which it has done in three of its four games this season — and it still scored 33 in the other game.
Per each team's Success Rates, Liberty's offense has the advantage both on the ground and through the air. The Flames run the ball on nearly two-thirds of their offensive snaps, and early rushing success should set up downfield shots to Sibley and Daniels.
Additionally, Liberty's opportunistic defense could generate a few turnovers and give the offense a couple more opportunities to score.
Pick: Liberty Team Total Over 33.5
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