The Sam Houston State Bearkats take on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in Bowling Green, Ky. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Western Kentucky is favored by 10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -425. The total is set at 61.5 points.
Here are my Sam Houston vs. Western Kentucky predictions and college football picks for Saturday, August 23.
Sam Houston vs W. Kentucky Prediction
• Sam Houston vs. Western Kentucky Pick: Over 61.5 (-110 · BetMGM)
My Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston best bet is on the Over. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky Odds
| Sam Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | +320 |
| W. Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | -425 |
- Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky point spread: Western Kentucky -10.5 (-110 ), Sam Houston +10.5 (-110).
- Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky over/under: 61.5 (-110o / -110u).
- Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky moneyline: Sam Houston +320, Western Kentucky -425.
Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky Pick, Betting Analysis
So much can change in one offseason in college football. The coaching carousel and transfer portal can completely change a team's identity in a matter of weeks.
That's what happened to these two schools during the offseason.
Sam Houston lost its beloved head coach, K.C. Keeler, to Temple. Keeler won the Bearkats an FCS national championship and guided them through the program's FBS transition, culminating with a 10-win season last fall.
Keeler's vision was simple: the Bearkats used a ball-control offense and a salty defense to shrink games down. The Sam Houston offense ranked 22nd nationally in average time of possession and 10th in rush rate, while its defense finished in the top 25 in key metrics like yards allowed, red zone scoring percentage allowed, and takeaways.
Skyler Cassity, the Bearkats' defensive coordinator, got poached by in-state rival North Texas this offseason. He is a rising star in the coaching profession and will be sorely missed.
Replacing the dynamic coaching combo of Keeler and Cassity is Phil Longo and Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay.
Longo is coming off an underwhelming two seasons in Madison, Wisconsin. Longo's "Dairy Raid" at Wisconsin attempted to air things out, but it never got off the ground. The last time he led a program was in 2005 when he was the head coach of La Salle in Philadelphia. He was a part of the downturn (7-14 HC record) that ultimately led to the university discontinuing football altogether.
Aughtry-Lindsay steps in to replace Cassity, and he's never been a full-time playcaller at the college level.
The dropoff in coaching quality, paired with the increase in pace, will be noticeable in this game.
Luckily for Longo, Hunter Watson returns at quarterback and could be a decent fit in Longo's spread offense. Watson is a willing and dynamic runner who could give the Hilltoppers’ front seven fits.
Western Kentucky’s defense lost its top 12 tacklers from last year’s squad, and the Hilltoppers were beyond dreadful when it came to stopping the run, allowing nearly 3100 rushing yards.
Watson could easily hit the century mark on Saturday with designed runs and off-book scrambles.
On offense, Tyson Helton and the WKU coaching staff are ready to play the hits.
He grabbed Bailey Zappe and his playcaller from Houston Baptist four years ago. The quarterback-playcaller two-for-one ended with Zappe setting the FBS record for yardage and touchdowns in a season.
Well, Helton decided to run that back. He added Maverick McIvor and Rick Bowie from Abilene Christian, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle for a second time.
McIvor and Bowie carried Abilene Christian to its first FCS playoff appearance while torching teams through the air in 2024. Bowie's preferred "IndyCar" tempo will be noticeable from the very first drive. Abilene Christian ran over 1000 plays last season, which also forced the defense to be on the field for over 1000 plays.
More plays equal more points.
My projections called for this total to be set at 67.5, so sportsbooks and the public are still reacting too slowly to the coaching and tempo changes. If Sam Houston can pull its weight and get to 24 points, we're in the clear.
Pick: Over 61.5 (-110 · BetMGM)
