The No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels take on the No. 7 Louisville Cardinals in an SEC/ACC clash on Sunday night.
Ole Miss has been a major headline throughout the offseason following Lane Kiffin's move from Oxford to Baton Rouge, but Pete Golding's team will once again be a College Football Playoff contender behind Heisman hopeful Trinidad Chambliss.
On the other side, Louisville head coach Jeff Brohm has printed money as an underdog. While the Cardinals return one of the best running backs in the country in Isaac Brown, they're breaking in a new quarterback in Ohio State transfer Lincoln Kienholz.
Ole Miss enters as a facorite of about a touchdown, while the over/under sits near the key number of 55. So, where does the value lie?
We polled 10 members of our college football staff to get their take on the spread and over/under for Sunday night's ranked matchup.
Let's take a look at our Ole Miss vs. Louisville picks and college football predictions for Sunday, Sept. 6.
Ole Miss vs. Louisville Spread Pick
Our Staff's Pick: Louisville +7
By Road to CFB
Our college football experts are aligned on this game, with 9-of-10 voters siding with Louisville +7.
The Cardinals bring coaching continuity to the table, and head coach Jeff Brohm has a stellar record as an underdog.
Since 2018 at Purdue and Louisville, Brohm has gone 11-4 ATS as a 7-plus point underdog, covering the spread by an average of 7.5 points per game (h/t Stuckey).
Last year, Louisville pulled off the outright upset of Miami as a +13.5 underdog, along with an upset over Clemson as a +10.5 underdog the year prior.
Continuity among coordinators also helps (co-defensive coordinator Steve Ellis takes over but has been at Louisville since 2023), even with a new starting quarterback inbound.
It’s the inverse for Ole Miss. The staff is almost entirely new — DC-turned-head-coach Pete Golding will still call the defensive plays — but the Rebels return star quarterback Trinidad Chambliss.
The offensive line turns over both tackles, and these fresh faces must immediately deal with end Clev Lubin (8.5 sacks) and linebacker Stanquan Clark, who returns after a season-ending injury.
It’s a defense that excels in creating Havoc and getting off the field on late downs.
This game has all the makings of a wild back-and-forth affair, and the betting market reflects that. With high projected variance (a 55.5-point total), our experts side with the seasoned underdog at a neutral site.
Ole Miss vs. Louisville Over/Under Pick
Over 55 | 6 Picks |
Pass | 3 Picks |
Under 55 | 1 Pick |
Our Staff's Pick: Over 55
By Road to CFB
To continue along the “wild back-and-forth affair” theme, our staff projects this game to go over. Six of the 10 votes side with the over, and another three deem this a coin flip; only one leans under.
New Ole Miss offensive coordinator John David Baker ran the fourth-fastest tempo in the country at East Carolina (21.8 seconds per play) in the veer-and-shoot system.
Although Brohm doesn’t run a blistering tempo (27.3 seconds per play), it’s an efficient system that ranked inside the top 25 in Success Rate on standard downs (51.6%) and stayed ahead of the marker.
Stars are the name of the game for this one.
Louisville running back Isaac Brown should be good to go after battling a camp injury, and his backup, Keyjuan Brown, is as good as any in the country. This rushing attack ranked 11th in Success Rate and runs behind a line that returns five FBS starters.
On the other side, you have Chambliss and Kewan Lacy — both Heisman contenders — plus a stud receiving corps in Deuce Alexander, Johntay Cook II and Caleb Odom.
The Cards also add dual-threat quarterback Lincoln Kienholz from Ohio State.
Our staff feels confident in the over due to a combination of pace and the absurd talent littering the offensive depth chart. Both offenses are explosive and aggressive, while both defenses are opportunistic but can give up explosives in their own right.
Ole Miss vs. Louisville Odds
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -120 | 55 -110o / -110u | -425 |
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 +100 | 55 -110o / -110u | +320 |
