Living in Florida limits some of the ways I can attack the college football landscape, but it doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities out there.
Underdog is one of the places where I can take advantage of my college football research through player projections, and that’s what I’ll be focusing on here.
My approach to these picks goes beyond simply looking at last year’s box scores.
Coaching changes, scheme adjustments, personnel movement, depth charts and expected roles all play a major part in projecting what these players will look like this season.
Early in the year, there can be an advantage in identifying those changes before we have multiple weeks of data telling us what has already happened.
For this slate, there are six numbers that stand out to me, with several that I’m comfortable pushing well beyond the current projection.
Let's take a look at my college football underdog picks and NCAAF plays for Week 1.
College Football Underdog Plays
| Time (ET) | Underdog Play |
|---|---|
| Friday, 9 p.m. | |
| Saturday, 12:45 p.m. | |
| Saturday, 3:30 p.m. | |
| Saturday, 3:45 p.m. | |
| Saturday, 7:30 p.m. | |
| Sunday, 7:30 p.m. |
Miami vs Stanford Underdog Pick
Darian Mensah Higher Than 235.5 Passing Yards
The Miami Hurricanes are a team I expect to have a much higher pass rate and a more explosive passing game this season.
Carson Beck was coming off elbow surgery last year, while Darian Mensah is coming off a season with 3,900 passing yards and 34 touchdowns.
Miami’s offense played at a slow pace and wasn’t consistently chasing explosive plays, but it attacked that weakness in the portal.
The Canes brought Mensah’s No. 1 wide receiver, Cooper Barkate, with him, added Vandrevius Jacobs and return Malachi Toney, one of the best players in the country.
I expect Stanford to load the box against Miami’s offense, which should create opportunities for deep shots to Barkate and the screen game with Toney.
I believe Mensah is on a similar talent level to Cam Ward, who threw for 280-plus yards in 12-of-13 full games at Miami.
Mensah is someone I expect to finish in the 270-300 yard range in this matchup, with explosive plays to Barkate and Toney doing much of the damage.
Pick: Darian Mensah Higher Than 235.5 Passing Yards
Kent State vs South Carolina Underdog Pick
Nyck Harbor Higher Than 58.5 Receiving Yards
The new South Carolina offense is perfect for Nyck Harbor’s skill set, and I expect him to have a massive performance against Kent State.
I wouldn’t mind pushing this to the 100-yard mark because Harbor should become a much bigger deep threat in Kendal Briles�� offense.
South Carolina also lost two wide receivers who were expected to be involved, which should keep Harbor on the field longer in this matchup.
Harbor had just nine targets on go routes last season, per PFF. In comparison, Briles’ offense had Josh Hoover target Eric McAlister and Jordan Dwyer 56 times on go routes.
They’re going to chase explosive plays with Harbor, and against Kent State, those opportunities should come early and often.
Pick: Nyck Harbor Higher Than 58.5 Receiving Yards
Baylor vs Auburn Underdog Pick
Jeremiah Cobb Higher Than 71.5 Rushing Yards
Auburn has a completely new look with head coach Alex Golesh taking over, and he’s bringing the USF/Tennessee offense with him.
This scheme puts a ton of stress on the front seven to control the box with lighter numbers, and having a dynamic athlete like Byrum Brown at quarterback makes it even more dangerous in the run game.
Running back Jeremiah Cobb was phenomenal last season and rushed for over 70 yards on just 16 carries against Baylor. I expect him to be the lead back here and cruise into the 80-90 yard range while Baylor focuses on limiting Brown’s legs.
Pick: Jeremiah Cobb Higher Than 71.5 Rushing Yards
Oklahoma State vs Tulsa Underdog Pick
Chris Barnes Higher Than 41.5 Receiving Yards
Barnes followed his wide receivers coach from Washington State to Wake Forest and now to Oklahoma State.
On top of that, he was once committed to Eric Morris at North Texas before flipping his commitment, so it’s no surprise that he’s listed as a starting receiver this weekend.
Barnes dealt with terrible quarterback play last season but is one of the most explosive playmakers in the country, and now he joins one of the most explosive passing offenses in college football.
This couldn’t be a better fit, and he’s another player I’d be comfortable pushing into the 60-70 receiving yard range.
Pick: Chris Barnes Higher Than 41.5 Receiving Yards
Western Michigan vs Michigan Underdog Pick
Bryce Underwood Higher Than 32.5 Rushing Yards
Bryce Underwood wasn’t much of a runner last season, but that was largely due to how the offense used him.
This new staff won’t be afraid to call designed runs for him. Underwood is one of the most talented athletes in the country, and when he’s gotten opportunities as a designed runner, he’s made plenty of plays with his legs.
I think he comfortably lands in the 45-55 rushing yard range in this matchup, and hopefully any additional rushing production comes from scrambling rather than being offset by sacks.
Pick: Bryce Underwood Higher Than 32.5 Rushing Yards
Wisconsin vs Notre Dame Underdog Pick
CJ Carr Higher Than 224.5 Passing Yards
CJ Carr is a highly talented quarterback who I believe puts Notre Dame in a position to have more pass-friendly early-game scripts than we’ve seen in years past.
They no longer have Jeremiyah Love or Jadarian Price on the roster, while Aneyas Williams has already made an impact as a pass-catching running back, which should only help Carr get over this number.
This is a projecting-forward play for me, as I fully expect Notre Dame’s pass rate to be much higher this season than in years past. I’d personally feel comfortable pushing Carr into the 240-250 yard range.
Pick: CJ Carr Higher Than 224.5 Passing Yards
College Football Underdog Summary
Early in the season, I want to take advantage of what I believe teams are going to do before we have several weeks of data confirming it.
Whether it’s a new offensive system, an expanded role or a player landing in a better situation, each of these picks is built around projecting forward rather than simply relying on last year’s production.
Mensah, Carr, Harbor, Barnes, Cobb and Underwood are all players I expect to benefit from those changes immediately.
The numbers will adjust as we learn more about these teams, but for Week 1, these are the spots where I believe there’s an opportunity to get ahead of the market.
