The Samford Bulldogs take on the Baylor Bears in Waco, Texas. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Baylor is favored by 47.5 points on the spread, and the total is set at 58.5 points.
Here’s my Samford vs. Baylor prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 13.
Samford vs Baylor Prediction
- Samford vs. Baylor Pick: Baylor 1H Spread
My Baylor vs. Samford best bet is on the Bears to cover the first-half spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Samford vs Baylor Odds
| Samford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+47.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 / -110 | N/A |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-47.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 / -110 | N/A |
- Samford vs Baylor point spread: Baylor -47.5
- Samford vs Baylor over/under: 58.5 points
Samford vs Baylor Preview
Samford Bulldogs Betting Preview: Major Question Marks
Samford comes into this matchup in a really bad way, as this once proud SOCON program has fallen on hard times. The Bulldogs have opened 0-2, losing both games as home favorites.
Looking at the competition reveals even more concern. West Georgia and The Citadel aren't good FCS programs, and Samford couldn’t run the ball against either of these teams.
For the season, Samford is averaging 1.9 yards per carry on the ground, with just one rush longer than 12 yards. Samford plays fast and has thrown the ball quite a bit with quarterback Quincy Crittendon, but the offense has committed eight turnovers in two weeks.
The Bulldogs have been flippant with the football in the early going. This high-risk, high-reward mindset has come up snake-eyes so far, as Samford is just 2-for-7 on fourth-down conversions this season and have turned it over on downs five times already.
The offense isn't very efficient and situationally, Samford hasn't shown a high level of execution. This game against Baylor could turn sideways for it quickly.
Defensively, Samford hasn't been good, as both The Citadel and West Georgia were able to move the ball and score a ton of points against this group.
The defensive line has struggled to secure havoc or create pressure on the opposition, which could spell disaster for the Bulldogs against the high-octane Baylor offense.
Baylor Bears Betting Preview: Much Easier Matchup
Baylor needed a miracle comeback to avoid an 0-2 start, as the Bears were down two touchdowns with five minutes to go against SMU. Baylor forced overtime and won it from there. Now it can exhale before getting ready to reload for Big 12 play next week.
Baylor has started slow in both games this season, as it hasn't scored a touchdown in the first quarter yet this season. The drives have lacked explosive plays, and the quick strike nature of Baylor’s fast-paced attack hasn't been present early on.
Getting off to a hot start has to be the focused this week for Baylor.
Defensively, the metrics look bad, but given the competition it's played, I don’t think this group has performed too badly. Auburn and SMU both have high-powered offenses with dynamic quarterbacks who were able to shred this Baylor defense in different ways.
SMU was able to pass the ball efficiently on the secondary, and Auburn ran for 300 yards on this bunch.
Samford won't provide nearly the same challenges that Baylor’s first two opponents were able to, and I have to assume the Bears come out defensively ready to go against Samford.
Samford vs Baylor Pick, Betting Analysis
I'm looking to back Baylor in the first half in this one.
Baylor needs to get off to a fast start and get its starting platoon to the sidelines early. I would expect Sawyer Robertson to completely shred this Samford defensive secondary, and we should see very little pressure in the pocket against him.
I can't see a scenario where Samford is able to cover Kole Wilson, Michael Trigg or Josh Cameron, who should all approach 100 pass receiving yards in the first half.
I fully expect Baylor’s first-quarter touchdown-less streak to end here and for the Bears to score on every possession of the first half.
Samford is going to play fast and throw the ball around, but it's been so careless with the football this season. Baylor should force a turnover or two in the first half, along with quick possessions in which the Bulldogs don't advance the ball far.
Lastly, Samford has given up a ton of havoc against it offensively, as its offensive line doesn't have the talent to prevent pressure.
Samford quarterbacks have been sacked eight times and the unit has surrendered 17 tackles for loss already this year. I would expect Baylor and its defensive front seven to feast, further compounding the issue for Samford.
Look for the Bulldogs to be in third-and-long a ton in the first half and for this one to snowball quickly.
Pick: Baylor 1H Spread
