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Weekday Conference USA action is officially back!
With college football and NFL games stretching from tonight through next Monday and more CUSA action starting back up on Tuesday, we have nonstop football every day this week.
The action on Wednesday, Oct. 7, features two games in Conference USA.
First, Kennesaw State meets Jacksonville State in a very close regional matchup. Then, FIU and New Mexico State meet for what should be a stellar nightcap.
Our college football writers came through with Wednesday college football predictions and NCAAF picks for both games, so let's strap in — and be sure to check back tomorrow for our Thursday night college football betting coverage.
Be sure to download the Action Network app for more expert picks and analysis!
Wednesday's College Football Predictions, Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Wednesday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State Pick
By RoadToCFB
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
One of my biggest concerns when Jacksonville State lost running back Cam Cook to the transfer portal was that quarterback Caden Creel would shoulder too much of the offensive load.
That has been exactly the case. Through five games, Creel has 49 more rushing attempts than the next back (not including sacks!) and accounts for almost 47% of the Gamecock's rushing attempts.
Creel already accounts for seven turnovers — four interceptions and three fumbles.
As a result, you get an inconsistent offense with a pretty clear ceiling. The attack hasn’t accounted for more than 24 points in regulation against FBS competition (its 31-27 win over Georgia Southern came via a punt return touchdown).
Backs Lucas Farrington (6.7 yards per attempt) and Jalen Likely (5.6) have been excellent in small doses. It’s clear Charles Kelly’s system works, but the Gamecocks rely too much on Creel.
On defense, Brian Williams employs a bend-don’t-break approach that has held 4-of-5 opponents under 28 points. However, the defense ranks 92nd in Success Rate allowed and 82nd in Points Per Drive allowed.
This is a rotation-heavy unit but lacks the strength in the two-deep to successfully employ that strategy — at least against better competition.
Fortunately for Jax State, opposing offensive talent has been scant. The Gamecocks faced North Dakota State, FCS Eastern Kentucky, Ohio (without its starting QB), Georgia Southern and Middle Tennessee.
The cracks are there for a fast-tempo offense to take advantage. But luckily for the Gamecocks, there aren’t many great offenses left on the schedule.
Kennesaw State Owls
Since losing breakout star quarterback Amari Odom to Syracuse, Kennesaw State’s offense has been a mess.
Rickie Collins was way out of his depth as a power conference quarterback, and while he’s been markedly better at Kennesaw State, that hasn’t translated to a lick of offensive success.
Since taking down FCS West Georgia, 47-0, Kennesaw has averaged 13.3 points per game.
The Tennessee game went predictably for the offense (9 points) and Georgia State was far better than expected (17 points), but Collins was held to just 129 passing yards on 17 attempts against Arkansas State, the 102nd-ranked defense in Points Per Drive.
There aren't any threats in the passing game, a product of both Collins’ limited shots downfield (10 attempts of 20-plus yards) and the scheme.
Receiver Zion Booker leads the team in targets, but those targets come at an average of 2.5 yards past the line of scrimmage; Javon Rogers leads in yards, but his average depth of target comes 19 yards downfield.
It’s too predictable what offensive coordinator Mitch Militello wants to do and whom he wants to target.
The other side of the ball — which was often the unsung hero of Kennesaw State’s 10-win season last year — doesn’t do anything well enough to thrive.
The defense ranks 123rd in Points Per Drive allowed, bottom-five in non-explosive EPA (in other words, what can teams do on the “average” play?) and last in Havoc rate (turnovers, sacks and tackles for loss).
This unit was completely gutted last season, and that’s very apparent through five games in 2026.
Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State Prediction
Jacksonville State opened as a -2.5 favorite on the road, a number that was bet up to -4 before Kennesaw State received respected movement. It’s likely this number stays at or around -3 (some books still offer -2.5 at a juiced number).
Also sitting around a key number is the total, which straddled either side of 51 points for most of the life of this line.
On Tuesday, respected money came in on both Kennesaw State and under 50.5.
Jacksonville State is a much different team on the road than at home, and that’s not a new phenomenon in 2026.
Conversely, Kennesaw State has played much better at home, posting a 9-2 ATS mark since 2024 (1-1 this year). Note that Jacksonville, Alabama, is just 90 minutes away from Kennesaw, Georgia.
Expect both teams to lean on the ground game and utilize the quarterback run. The weakness of the Gamecock defense comes on the ground, a place where the Owls are talented. In fact, four Kennesaw players have 100-plus rushing yards.
Asking Creel, who has continued his mistake-prone tendencies this year, to carry the load on the road is a proposition I’m not ready to make.
With a number trending further and further down, I’m inclined to take the points with the home underdog in conference play.
Pick: Kennesaw State +3 or Better
| |
FIU vs. New Mexico State Pick
By Joshua Nunn
New Mexico State Aggies
New Mexico State is coming off an impressive home win over Western Kentucky after struggling through a 1-3 stretch in the non-conference portion of its schedule in September.
The ground game was effective against the Hilltoppers' defense, and quarterback Adam Damante threw the ball well in relief of Trey Hedden, who started the first four games but has played poorly for much of the season.
The defense had its best performance of the season, and New Mexico State is starting to figure out its strengths just in time for conference play.
Damante gives the Aggies consistency under center, completing 71% of his passes and throwing four touchdown passes in six quarters.
James Jones has shined, averaging 6.6 yards per carry and has become the featured back the last couple of weeks.
While the offensive line is still a work in progress, this offense is much farther ahead than what we saw at times last season.
The task this week is daunting against an FIU defense that grades out as the best in CUSA.
New Mexico State has also played a little better defensively this season, despite being on the losing end of three games. The Aggies frustrated Florida State in the opener on the road, and the stop-unit was able to hold down Hawaii for long stretches of that game.
The showing last week against Western Kentucky was impressive, as New Mexico State allowed just 43 rushing yards on 31 attempts without giving up an explosive run.
The defense doesn't register much havoc, but the coverage units have held serve against decent passing offenses and should have success in this game.
FIU Panthers
FIU has played really good football this year but comes in at just 2-2 after close losses against South Florida and FAU, two of the stronger Group of 6 teams in the country.
The defense has shined, as FIU is allowing just 244 total yards and 14.5 points per game.
The front has been impressive, registering three sacks in each of the last three games, and Elisha Baldridge and Dee Jay Holmes have been making plays all season.
None of the offenses faced have had success against this run-stop group, as FIU is allowing just 80 yards per game and 2.5 yards per carry this season on the ground.
Expect an excellent performance from the defense.
The FIU offense has remained balanced this season, despite the ground attack struggling at times, and this group is still trying to figure out exactly what it wants to be.
JJ Kohl has been solid at the quarterback position, but he threw 50 passes in the opener and 43 against FAU.
This team wants to run the ball, and we saw a more conservative, ball-control approach last time out against FCS-level Long Island.
Expect Anthony Carrie and Devonte Lyons to tote the rock quite a bit, but FIU will succeed in the passing game as well if the ground attack gets going.
New Mexico State vs FIU Prediction
This line opened with FIU listed as a short 3.5-point favorite, and FIU has taken money all week, pushing this line out to -6.5. The total has remained consistently priced at 47.5.
I like FIU to win this game and cover the number.
FIU has been much better than its 2-2 record would suggest, and the defense has created issues for every opponent it's faced. New Mexico State has been balanced out of necessity — throwing the ball in the second half when trailing by multiple scores — but this team wants to run the football.
FIU ranks 12th nationally in rush play success rate defensively, and there's a lot to like about the front. The Panthers have one of the best run defenses in CUSA, and this is an excellent tackling defense.
The New Mexico State ground attack will look nothing like what we saw last week when the Aggies played against Western Kentucky.
A lack of success on the ground will force New Mexico State to throw the ball more frequently than desired, and FIU has an elite CUSA secondary accompanied by a strong pass rush.
Last week was more of an anomaly for the Aggies, as their offensive output was aided by playing the worst run defense and worst tackling defense in the conference. Western Kentucky was also playing its fourth road game in five weeks.
Watch the FIU red zone defense in this one, and anticipate a strong showing when New Mexico State does move the football inside the Panthers' 20-yard line. FIU has allowed just four red zone touchdowns all season in 12 trips.
The situational spot favors FIU in this game, as the Panthers are fresh off a bye week and have had 10 days off. Meanwhile, New Mexico State is actually playing its third game in 11 days.
The last two games have been spirited “play-up” spots, hosting rival New Mexico and then having the conference opener. This is a tough spot, and I could see New Mexico State fading badly in the second half.
I'm willing to lay the number with FIU.
Pick: FIU -6.5
