I hope you had a fun and profitable Week 9.
Let's close out Week 9 with my final two situational spots and Saturday NCAAF Picks, including bets for Tennessee vs. Kentucky and Houston vs. Arizona State.
For all of my spots on Saturday's slate, click here.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:45 p.m. | Kentucky +9 |
  | 8:00 p.m. | Houston +7.5 |
Kentucky +9 vs. Tennessee
7:45 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network
I haven't been a believer in this Tennessee team since the summer, and I haven't really changed my tune after four straight non-covers.
Yes, the Vols arguably should have beaten Georgia earlier this season, but they also could've easily lost to Mississippi State and Arkansas. The Hogs, who outgained the Vols, only lost by three in Knoxville despite a -3 turnover margin.
And against the Bulldogs, Tennessee needed a last-minute game-tying touchdown to force overtime, even after getting a defensive touchdown earlier in the fourth quarter.
The defense is just not special, in part because of the absence of its two projected starting cornerbacks, who would have certainly elevated this group as a whole.
The Vols are a poor tackling unit that struggles in short-yardage situations, which should help Kentucky keep the sticks (and the clock) moving throughout.
Tennessee has also struggled to contain wide receivers after the catch, which the 'Cats offense relies upon to sustain drives.
I heard from many during the Kentucky bye week (before the Texas game) that quarterback Cutter Boley really benefited from the extra time after taking over for Zach Calzada under center a few games into the season. That makes logical sense for such an inexperienced quarterback.
Well, that certainly proved to be true.
Boley had an outstanding game against an elite Longhorn defense, setting a program freshman record for completion percentage (31-for-40 for 258 yards). The entire operation looked much crisper and seemed to find an identity.
I believe Boley and the entire unit can carry that momentum over into this week against a much softer defense that will allow opponents to methodically move the ball down the field, which is essentially the entire Kentucky offense.
On the other side of the ball, Tennessee features a terrific offense led by quarterback Joey Aguilar, running back DeSean Bishop (who not enough people are talking about), and wide receiver Chris Brazzell II.
Aguilar has been particularly lethal throwing the deep bal,l but still can get a bit careless with the ball under pressure, which the 'Cats can certainly generate.
The Vols will hit their fair share of big plays, but the Kentucky defense can compete on a down-to-down basis.
Keep in mind Kentucky should have beaten Texas (85% post-game win expectancy with over 200 more net yards) and played Ole Miss tight until the very end in a one-possession loss in its two ranked matchups at Kroger Field this season.
While you could argue that either team may be deflated after last week's losses, I don't envision that being the case in a rivalry game. If anything, maybe the Vols come out a bit flat, expecting to beat an inferior opponent before facing Oklahoma next week — a game that will undoubtedly make or break their season.
Lastly, if you're looking for small edges, I give Kentucky the nod in the special teams department, while Tennessee has a significant penalty problem (118th in penalties per game) that could plague it on the road.
Ultimately, I believe Kentucky remains a bit undervalued coming out of the bye with an improving quarterback after playing one of the five most difficult schedules in the country to date.
To me, this line should be 7, which I believe it would be if Kentucky had scored from the 1-yard line against Texas and/or Tennessee had dropped either game against Mississippi State or Arkansas.
There's also potential for positive regression for the 'Cats in the fourth-down and turnover departments, while the opposite holds true for Tennessee.
Go 'Cats.
Pick: Kentucky +8 or Better
Houston +7.5 at Arizona State
8:00 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
I bet Houston +7.5 earlier in the week in anticipation of a poor injury report for Arizona State, which also finds itself in a tough spot after an emotional comeback win over Texas Tech. It turned out the Sun Devils will indeed be shorthanded.
Most noteworthy is the loss of Jordyn Tyson, who might be the best wide receiver in the country. That could completely neuter the offense and make Houston's game plan much more straightforward.
Additionally, the defense may have to make do without its top pass rusher, starting linebacker, and a couple of starting safeties.
The ASU special teams remain an absolute disaster. While head coach Willie Fritz is a covering machine, so is Sam Leavitt (15-2 ATS!).
I don't fully trust this Houston offense on the road, so I may come back for some if the line drops.
Pick: Houston +7 or Better
