South Alabama vs Troy Picks & Prediction: Value on Trojans?

Editor's Note: South Alabama quarterback quarterback will miss tonight's game against Troy with a knee injury, according to AL.com's Creg Stephenson. Freshman Gio Lopez will get the start. Check out our live college football odds page for up-to-date NCAAF odds.

It's time to dive into South Alabama vs. Troypicks and predictions for Thursday night's college football game.

The Jaguars head to Troy to meet their in-state rival in a rematch of one of the best Group of Five games from last season.

This year’s game features Troy as a favorite of -5.5, while the over/under sits at 44.5.

The Trojans offense has improved in 2023, but their historic 2022 defense has regressed. South Alabama has a good offense, but the health of quarterback Carter Bradley is in question.

Let's not waste any more time and get right to the matchup. Here's my South Alabama vs. Troy prediction and betting pick.

Kane Wommack’s outfit entered 2023 with visions of getting revenge against Troy and claiming the Sun Belt West as its own.

The Jaguars brought back a squadron of returners on both sides of the ball but have been done in by unfocused play and a tough schedule and are now 4-4.

While the dream of the division crown is nearly dead, the rivalry revenge is still real. However, that'll get a lot harder if Bradley can’t suit up.

The Toledo transfer has started the past two seasons in Mobile. He has completed 62% of his passes for 2,156 yards, 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Additionally, his QBR is 70, good for 30th in the country.

But he suffered a knee injury on the final play last week against Louisiana. He's been practicing this week, but his status won't be official until closer to game time.

If he can’t go, his replacement will likely either be Desmond Trotter, a fifth-year senior who has started some contests but lost his role to Bradley, or Gio Lopez, a precocious freshman talent who has 15 career passes, all in mop-up duty.

Regardless of who starts, they'll have the luxuries of handing the ball to La’Damian Webb and throwing to Caullin Lacy, two of the most productive players in the Sun Belt. Webb has rushed for 5.7 yards per carry and found the end zone 13 times, while Lacey ranks second in the country with 957 receiving yards.

All told, they power a very good offense. The Jaguars' attack is 36th in Success Rate, ninth in explosives and 11th in Finishing Drives.

The defense is a good unit for the Group of Five but not an impenetrable one. It's better against the run (61st in EPA/play) and leaky against the pass (94th in EPA/play).

Troy’s offense is going to run the ball a lot with Kimani Vidal. He has a lot of yards, but the team’s rush efficiency metrics aren't stellar.

However, Troy's offense has found a newly explosive passing game and ranks sixth in the country in big-play passing. Conversely, the Jaguars rank 95th in defending such plays.

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The defending champions weren't themselves to open the season.

They dropped a pair of early games to Kansas State and James Madison, and the defense looked questionable.

However, a revitalized passing attack and a return to form on defense has led the Trojans to a five-game win streak. They're also back in the top 25 in defensive SP+.

It was always going to be tough to match last year’s top-10 finish in that metric, but this is still one of the best stop units in the Group of Five. Despite losing coordinator Shiel Wood and a host of starters from last year, the Trojans are still 24th in Success Rate Allowed, 31st in Havoc and 33rd in Finishing Drives.

More importantly, they have allowed just 23 combined points in their past four contests.

The offense has improved from last season. Vidal is a workhorse and has had two games with over 245 rushing yards. He's third in the nation in rush yards, but Troy's Success Rate on the ground sits at just 105th. However, the Trojans are 35th in rushing explosives.

The efficiency/big-play split is even more pronounced in Gunnar Watson’s passing. The Trojans are 90th through the air in Success Rate but sixth in big plays.

Jabre Barber has been Watson’s favorite target (38 catches), but Chris Lewis' ability to take the top off the defense has been a welcome addition to Troy's offense, as he's averaging 23.1 yards per catch.

Essentially, this Troy offense doesn't have the comportment of an efficient attack. It'll probe and take some three-and-outs, but it'll eventually look to hit the big play.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how South Alabama and Troy match up statistically:

South Alabama Offense vs. Troy Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	47	26
Line Yards	15	25
Pass Success	28	31
Havoc	46	40
Finishing Drives	11	33
Quality Drives	30	18

Troy Offense vs. South Alabama Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	105	23
Line Yards	52	56
Pass Success	90	90
Havoc	105	91
Finishing Drives	111	40
Quality Drives	42	39

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	89	18
PFF Coverage	65	12
Special Teams SP+	47	95
Middle 8	49	8
Seconds per Play	26.0 (52)	28.3 (92)
Rush Rate	51.4% (81)	53.3% (78)

Bradley’s injury adds a difficult wrinkle. If he's healthy and looks right, I think both teams will score. I'm intrigued by the over and by the live betting possibilities.

I'm also intrigued by a Troy second-half bet. The Trojans have been dominating Sun Belt opponents in the second half, and that could certainly be the recipe again in front of the home crowd.

But ultimately I'm going to keep it simple and ride with the defending champs.

This defense is white-hot right now, and I think it'll be able to create big scoring plays through the air against a dicey South Alabama secondary. The Jaguars' question mark at quarterback only strengthens my conviction.