The East Texas A&M Lions take on the Mercer Bears in Macon, Georgia. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Mercer is favored by 24.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -4500. The total is set at 60.5 points.
Here are my East Texas A&M vs. Mercer predictions and college football picks for Saturday, August 29, 2026.
East Texas A&M vs. Mercer Prediction
• East Texas A&M vs. Mercer Pick: Under 60.5
My East Texas A&M vs. Mercer best bet is on the under for this game. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
East Texas A&M vs. Mercer Odds
| East Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+24.5 -113 | 60.5 -106o / -120u | +1200 |
| Mercer Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-24.5 -113 | 60.5 -106o / -120u | -4500 |
- East Texas A&M vs. Mercer point spread: East Texas A&M +24.5, Mercer -24.5
- East Texas A&M vs. Mercer over/under: 60.5 points
- East Texas A&M vs. Mercer moneyline: East Texas A&M +1200, Mercer -4500
East Texas A&M vs. Mercer Preview
East Texas A&M Betting Preview: No Clear Improvements
East Texas A&M (formerly known as Texas A&M-Commerce) fielded its worst defense in quite some time, surrendering almost 40 points and 478 yards per game. That performance landed it 123rd in the FCS and with a 3-9 overall record.
Aside from a 40-10 drubbing of FCS bottom-feeder Northwestern State, the Lions needed 52 and 37 points, respectively, to notch their other two wins over Incarnate Word (who scored 45 of their own) and Houston Christian (32).
Despite a difficult schedule that featured two power-conference FBS foes, this team was largely non-competitive.
So, what changes did the program make to get back on track? Not many.
Head coach Clint Dolezel returns for a fourth season despite a 7-27 record, and he’ll call plays for a third year in a row. Dolezel’s play-calling ability wasn’t the primary issue as the offense showed flashes of competence (it scored 30+ three times) despite a disaster of a QB room.
It was a revolving door of starters, and the offense’s 25 turnovers were the third-most in the country.
Dolezel made a change at defensive coordinator and brought in Jesse Thompson from NC Central. Thompson led the Eagles to the 54th-ranked defense, albeit against a much easier cast of opponents.
The issue here is far less schematic and more about a talent void, especially up front. A bad pass rush led to efficient outings from opposing QBs, and the defense simply couldn’t get off the field on third down.
However, with so many offensive turnovers, the defense was constantly put in bad spots. It starts with the QB, and the Lions are in a dire spot.
Eric Rodriguez appears to be the starter, but he hasn’t played a healthy season yet for a career that started in 2022. He also throws far too many interceptions, though the upside is something Dolezel probably risks.
Mercer Betting Preview: Lots of New Faces
This isn’t your 2025 Mercer Bears football team. Out goes head coach Mike Jacobs (who owns a .803 career win percentage) and Jerry Rice Freshman of the Year winner quarterback Braden Atkinson (who threw for almost 3,600 yards and 34 touchdowns).
In comes West Georgia head coach Joel Taylor, who brings his staff to Macon.
Taylor found success at WGU, doubling its number of wins from four to eight in 2025.
Replacing Atkinson is one of two options: 6-foot-1 junior JP Pickels or 6-foot-4 transfer Jaylen King. Pickles saw action in nine games for Mercer last year, but he only attempted eight passes (61 yards), while King is an ETSU transfer by way of Florida State.
He has the starting experience and size, and even threw for 230 yards in a playoff game against Mercer in 2024.
Austin Peay transfer running back Javious Bond and receiver/return specialist Brayden Smith headline the weapons for the Bears.
Bond rushed for a tick over 320 yards and four touchdowns for the run-heavy Governors, and Smith landed on the preseason Walter Payton Award watch list. The offensive line projects to be dominantly made up of transfers, including tackle Brody Balliew, who followed Taylor from WGU.
Defensively, Mercer must replace the SoCon Defensive Player of the Year Andrew Zock (who left for Toledo) and six additional departures up front. That concern can be reserved for later in the season, as Mercer should be favored in its first two games against East Texas A&M and Presbyterian, both at home.
Offensive coordinator Austin Davis orchestrated a run-heavy approach in Carrollton the last two years. The run/pass splits came out to 160/188 yards per game last year for an offense that ranked 60th with 25.5 points per game.
It’s a methodical approach that complements Tripp Weaver’s physical defense well.
East Texas A&M vs. Mercer Pick, Betting Analysis
Mercer is the better team by far. It has a stark advantage in the trenches despite the departure of 13 total offensive and defensive linemen and a better answer at quarterback.
This game has the potential to range anywhere from a three-score blowout to a complete massacre by Mercer, and a look at laying the 23.5 points, at the surface, could be enticing.
But even with atrocious quarterback play and a truckload of turnovers, Dolezel managed to field a respectable and opportunistic offense. Just a hint of stability and care in the backfield could turn this into a pesky and effective scoring unit.
The Lions suffered just one loss to an FCS foe by more than 20 points last year thanks to an offense that allowed them to hang around despite gaffe after gaffe.
Instead, I’m targeting some growing pains for a brand-new Mercer staff and a fundamental shift in offensive philosophy. With an advantage up front and a perceived quarterback competition still in motion, I expect Taylor and his offense to lean into the ground game.
OC Davis leaned run at West Georgia and ultimately ended up with a 50/50 “balance” in rushing and passing yardage. (“Balance” in quotes because it really was a run-tilted attack.)
This line hasn’t moved up through an elevated point total of 62, telling me that sharp bettors aren’t all that keen on laying those points.
With no obvious answer at quarterback for East Texas A&M and a first game under entirely new management for Mercer–plus the expected run-first approach–I project this game to go under the point total.
Although Dolezel and the Lions were able to hang 42 on NC Central (whose DC they hired after that outing) and 52 on Incarnate Word, Mercer’s defense will be far stouter and superior. This is a step up in defensive class, even including all the turnovers, for East Texas A&M, and that likely results in fewer than 21 points.
Mercer doesn’t project to play with the tempo or aggressiveness needed to offset the visitors' likely lack of scoring.
Pick: Under 60.5 (Play to 58)
