The New Mexico State Aggies take on the Florida State Seminoles in Tallahassee on Saturday, Aug. 29. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on The CW.
Florida State is favored by -32.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -20000. New Mexico State, meanwhile, enters as a +32.5 underdog and is +3500 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The total is set at 52.5 points.
Here’s my New Mexico State vs. Florida State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, August 29.
New Mexico State vs Florida State Prediction
- New Mexico State vs. Florida State Pick: Florida State 1H -17.5 · Ousmane Kromah 100+ Rushing Yards (+230)
My Florida State vs. New Mexico State best bet is on the Seminoles to cover the first-half spread and running back Ousmane Kromah to rush for at least 100 yards. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
New Mexico State vs Florida State Odds
| New Mexico State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+32.5 -115 | 52.5 -115o / -105u | +3500 |
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-32.5 -105 | 52.5 -115o / -105u | -20000 |
- New Mexico State vs Florida State point spread: Florida State -32.5 (-105), New Mexico State +32.5 (-115)
- New Mexico State vs Florida State over/under: 52.5 (-115o / -105u)
- New Mexico State vs Florida State moneyline: New Mexico State +3500, Florida State -20000
New Mexico State vs Florida State College Football Preview
It’s make-or-break time for Mike Norvell in Tallahassee. Even a projected buyout of nearly $50 million, should the Florida State administration fire him before Jan. 1, isn’t enough to protect him from a scorching hot seat.
All the more reason for Norvell to get off to a hot start this season.
The Seminoles draw two dregs (New Mexico State and Central Arkansas) and two ranked opponents (SMU and Alabama) early. A 3-1 start would set them up for a seven- or eight-win campaign.
Despite a completely new offensive line, a green play-caller at offensive coordinator and a walking turnover in Ashton Daniels as their starting quarterback, there’s plenty to like about this roster.
The receiving corps could be elite by ACC standards, especially if Duce Robinson builds on his first 1,000-yard campaign.
Micahi Danzy was insanely explosive, albeit in a small sample size (21.1 YPR), and Jasen Lopez is the buzzy player of fall camp. The two-sport star was a three-star recruit at point guard, and he’s Florida State’s answer in the slot.
Defensively, coordinator Tony White has the makings of a top-50 unit despite significant losses in the portal.
His defense was stout against the run (3.6 YPC, 27th) and above average against the pass thanks to a strong pass rush. White has earned the benefit of the doubt, but he’ll need EDGE Rylan Kennedy and linebacker Mikai Gbayor to really shine this fall.
Florida State Player Prop
As for my favorite play in FSU-NMSU, let’s turn to a player prop.
This is the time of year when I pore over camp reports, trying to read the tea leaves. Luckily, Florida State has been fairly transparent this offseason.
Running back coach Kam Martin has stated plainly on multiple occasions that the Seminoles have the personnel and mindset to finish as a top-10 rushing team in 2026.
And while Gus Malzahn is gone as offensive coordinator, his protege Tim Harris Jr. will run a very similar system.
It stands to reason Florida State will pound the rock here, because the 'Noles have a deep running back room. They return so little on the offensive line it’s hard to even project their starting lineup, but that won’t be much of a problem when facing a depleted NMSU front.
There’s a high likelihood, given the projected game flow (read: blowout) and limited starting experience from this unit, that we see Norvell work in 10-12 different linemen over the full 60 minutes.
Undaunted by the hog-moly uncertainty, I feel confident that this will be a coming-out party for Ousmane Kromah.
The former blue-chipper was the third-rated running back in the class of 2025. He’s versatile at 6-foot-1 and 220 pounds with a sub-4.4 40-yard dash.
He’s explosive, powerful and a three-down back thanks to his hard work in the offseason. He regularly utilized Florida State’s VR room to better understand his pass protection responsibilities.
If he’s truly Norvell’s bellcow, he’ll receive 20-plus carries against this porous New Mexico State front and cruise past the 100-yard mark.
New Mexico State vs Florida State Pick, Betting Analysis
The good news, from a betting perspective, is that there are a lot of ways to attack Florida State’s Week 0 opener against New Mexico State.
The Aggies put up a fight last year during a 4-8 season by taking the ball away (24 takeaways, 14th) and passing it surprisingly well.
I don’t anticipate the same kind of turnover luck given the talent gap in this game, and Trey Hedden, NMSU’s new starting quarterback, has thrown 22 interceptions in 20 career starts at the FCS level.
While I don’t like Florida State laying 33.5 points in the full game, I do think there’s value in a first-half play.
I also expect Kromah to receive the bulk of the carries, which should translate to a 100-yard game on Saturday.
Pick: Florida State 1H -17.5 · Ousmane Kromah 100+ Rushing Yards (+230)
New Mexico State vs Florida State Betting Trends
