The TCU Horned Frogs take on the Kansas State Wildcats in Manhattan, KS. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
TCU is favored by -1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -120. The total is set at 55.5 points.
Here’s my TCU vs. Kansas State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 11, 2025.
TCU vs Kansas State Prediction
- TCU vs. Kansas State Pick: TCU ML -120
My Kansas State vs. TCU best bet is on the Horned Frogs moneyline. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
TCU vs Kansas State Odds
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
- TCU vs Kansas State point spread: TCU -1.5
- TCU vs Kansas State over/under: 55.5 points
- TCU vs Kansas State moneyline: TCU -120, Kansas State +100
TCU vs Kansas State Preview
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview: Back This Team for Rest of Season
Despite a 4-1 start to the season against a slate that includes 11 power-conference foes (only one of two schedules in the country like it), TCU has managed to avoid the spotlight of the AP Top 25.
The lone blemish on the Frogs' record comes at Arizona State (a team ranked inside the top 25) by a hair.
Quarterback Josh Hoover is among the nation's premier passers. He's tied for fourth in the country with 15 passing touchdowns (second among quarterbacks who have only played five games) and inside the top 10 nationally in passing yards (third among those with five games).
Hoover is a risk-taker and traditional gunslinger capable of elevating talented receivers around him like Eric McAlister and Jordan Dwyer.
The run game received a huge boost with the return of Kevorian Barnes last week, but it was McAlister again who stole the spotlight with two receiving touchdowns.
While Hoover and the offense catch most of the headlines, a top-50 defense in points per drive is what's propelled the Horned Frogs to near the top of the Big 12 odds boards. Three foes this season feature top-60 scoring units, and TCU hasn't allowed 30 on the season yet.
But TCU is hurting without starting corner Avery Helm.
Meanwhile, defensive lineman Ansel Din-Mbuh should return this week after sitting out Week 6.
TCU is a team lurking in the shadows below a ferocious Texas Tech unit and the remnant upstart Arizona State. Even surging Cincinnati received more AP poll votes than TCU.
This is a great position for TCU backers to continue capitalizing on the Horned Frogs, who fare much better in industry power ratings than the odds and rankings may suggest.
This is a team I'm looking to back for the remainder of the season.
Kansas State Wildcats Betting Preview: Turnover Regression Coming?
The Ireland curse appears to have found its next victim. Although 2-4 with a conference win is a better start than Florida State's disastrous 2024, a slate that includes Big 12 contenders like TCU, Utah and Kansas — paired with frontrunner Texas Tech — make the forecast for Kansas State bleak.
Bowl eligibility hinges on toss-up games like TCU and Kansas; lose those, and it's an early end to the season for Chris Klieman & Co.
Quarterback Avery Johnson is playing with fire. His 13 turnover-worthy throws through six games ties the national lead, but only two of those graded throws have been picked off.
Compare that to Malachi Nelson (nine interceptions), Caden Veltkamp (eight) and even Jaylen Raynor (four) – all of whom have an equal or fewer number of turnover-worthy plays this year. There's likely some turnover luck regression inbound for Johnson should he continue to put the ball in harm's way.
Outside of a 166-yard outing against UCF, running back Dylan Edwards has been downright ineffective. That bottomed out last week against Baylor with a 12-carry, 10-yard performance. Youngster Joe Jackson hasn't gotten much going, either.
When the running game isn't there for the Wildcats, nothing really is. A messy offensive line is sometimes the culprit for the ineffectiveness on the ground — seven players have taken at least 100 snaps this year — but Jackson and Edwards haven't done enough to regularly offset the deficiencies.
Defensively, Kansas State just isn't very good. It's a unit that gives up far too many big plays and suffers from not having at least one NFL corner in the secondary. This year's corner room is really inexperienced, both in class (two starters are sophomores) and game action.
Against upcoming foes like TCU, Kansas and Texas Tech, having a porous secondary is a one-way ticket to stacking losses.
TCU vs Kansas State Pick, Betting Analysis
TCU is the better football team, but it's also a squad that hasn't won in Manhattan since 2017. Kansas State is 8-2 against the spread when hosting TCU since 2015, and it's a place Horned Frog fans hate to see their team play.
This is also a tough spot for TCU, which finds itself in the middle of a seven-game stretch without a bye, six of which come against power-conference teams and five of those against the Big 12.
That's a long stretch with three road games and a big rivalry on deck next week (Baylor, which comes off a bye).
Last week's Colorado result was a matter of covered tracks and a rough beat for Buffs backers. TCU scored late when the game was likely put away, up seven points.
So roll together trends and team history in Manhattan, and it appears +1.5 is a good lean with the home 'dog. But Klieman hasn't been a home 'dog since 2022 (a 34-27 loss to Texas as +2.5 'dogs) and against a current Big 12 opponent since 2021 against Iowa State (a 33-20 loss at +6).
I'm taking the team I believe is both better and not fully appropriately rated yet this season in TCU.
It's a team I fully believe to be in the Big 12 Championship race with one of the country's best quarterbacks, a formidable cast of weapons and a defense that's both improved and good enough to win 10 games again.
We'll certainly find out whether that belief is founded with November stints against BYU and Iowa State, plus next week's home game against Baylor.
Pick: TCU ML -120
