The TCU Horned Frogs take on the UNC Tar Heels in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, on Monday, Sept. 1. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
TCU is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -170. UNC, meanwhile, comes in at +155 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 55.5 points.
Here are my TCU vs UNC prediction and college football picks for Monday, September 1.
TCU vs UNC Prediction
- TCU vs UNC Pick: 1H Under 28
My UNC vs TCU best bet is on the first-half under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
TCU vs UNC Odds
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -112 | 55.5 -105o / -115u | -170 |
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -108 | 55.5 -105o / -115u | +145 |
- TCU vs UNC Spread: TCU -3.5, UNC +3.5
- TCU vs UNC Over/Under: 55.5 Points
- TCU vs UNC Moneyline: TCU -170, UNC +145
TCU vs UNC College Football Betting Preview
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview: Strong Defense Expected
The Horned Frogs will take to the skies with quarterback Josh Hoover returning for offensive coordinator Kendal Briles. The fourth-year signal caller posted 27 touchdowns to just 11 interceptions last season, but he failed to execute as many big-time throws as turnover-worthy plays.
Hitches, slants and out routes are the bread and butter of the TCU offense, and Hoover capitalized from a big-play rate perspective on those plays.
The portal will provide new weapons for Briles' passing attack, but the return of Eric McAlister is one of the biggest in the Big 12. The senior posted a large 2.9 yards per route run for the Frogs in 2024.
The 4-2-5 defense from Andy Avalos returns, and the Frogs are fielding one of the better pass defenses in the Big 12 this season.
National title run holdover Bud Clark returns to safety, while linebackers Devean Deal and Namdi Obiazor combined for 10.5 tackles for loss and eight sacks.
Avalos had a renaissance in Fort Worth in terms of fundamentals, placing TCU as the 18th-best tackling team in the nation.
UNC Tar Heels Betting Preview: Belichick's in Business
North Carolina's direction in 2025 is a mystery to the college football world. Super Bowl-winning head coach Bill Belichick takes over, bringing his son, Steve Belichick, in as defensive coordinator.
The latter had an amazing turnaround for Washington last season, as the Huskies ended 2024 ranking 17th in pass coverage and as the top overall tackling team in FBS, per PFF.
The bad news comes in defending the rush, where Washington finished bottom 15 nationally in Success Rate. The 4-2-5 scheme will depend on nickel Kaleb Cost and edges Smith Vilbert and Pryce Yates to generate Havoc.
New offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens has emphasized a need to make North Carolina a run-first "collaborative" project with the entire coaching staff. A pro-style unit with 12 and 13 personnel is expected, with transfer quarterback Gio Lopez under center.
Lopez was on fire his entire sophomore year at South Alabama, throwing 17 touchdowns to just five interceptions. He also amassed more than 500 rushing yards, with nearly 300 coming off of designed calls.
TCU vs UNC Pick, Betting Analysis
The market has done nothing but steam in the direction of TCU since the opener early in the summer. The wave of money is expected to continue on the Horned Frogs, but one critical element could keep TCU off the board early.
Steve Belichick called a heavy amount of man coverage with a single high safety for Washington last season. The defensive scheme is designed to stop attacks over the middle with hitches and slants, the go-to routes for Hoover and TCU.
Conversely, TCU's recommitment to assignment football with tackling fundamentals was a primary factor in a nine-win season in 2024.
The ability to tackle in open space is critical against a quarterback like Lopez, who has a quick trigger to leave pockets when pressure is applied from opposing defensive lines.
Look for both offenses to struggle in the beginning stages, as both coaching staffs are experienced enough to make halftime adjustments and light up the scoreboard.
Pick: 1H Under 28 or Better
