The Tennessee Volunteers take on the Kentucky Wildcats in Lexington, Kentucky. Kickoff is set for 7:45 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Tennessee is favored by -9 points on the spread with a moneyline of -360. The total is set at 54.5 points.
Here’s my Tennessee vs. Kentucky prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 25.
Tennessee Volunteers vs Kentucky Wildcats Prediction, Picks
- Tennessee vs. Kentucky Pick: Under 54 or Better
My Kentucky vs. Tennessee best bet is on the Under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Tennessee vs Kentucky Odds, Spread, Lines
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -105 | 54.5 -115o / -105u | -300 |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -115 | 54.5 -115o / -105u | +240 |
- Tennessee vs Kentucky Spread: Tennessee -8, Kentucky +8
- Tennessee vs Kentucky Over/Under: 54.5 Points
- Tennessee vs Kentucky Moneyline: Tennessee ML -300, Kentucky ML +240
Tennessee vs Kentucky NCAAF Week 9 Preview
Tennessee Volunteers Betting Preview
This is a prime sandwich spot for Tennessee, as the Vols are coming off their matchup against Alabama and have Oklahoma on deck.
The Vols cannot afford another loss if they want to make the College Football Playoff, so there is a good chance they are caught sleepwalking in Lexington on Saturday.
Tennessee’s offense has the firepower to draw headlines, but the advanced metrics suggest a more balanced and methodical attack than one built for track meets.
The Volunteers rank 21st nationally in EPA per pass at +0.24 and 24th per rush at +0.13, showing they’re efficient in both phases but not necessarily explosive on every drive.
Their 59.1% available yards percentage ranks 19th nationally, which confirms that they move the ball consistently. Yet their average third-down distance of 6.65 yards indicates they occasionally get behind the chains.
Still, Tennessee’s 54.3% third- and fourth-down Success Rate, which ranks top-15 nationally, gives them the ability to sustain possessions.
Early-down efficiency tells the same story. With a +0.16 EPA per play on early downs, Tennessee tends to stay ahead of schedule and rarely faces long-yardage situations.
Against a Kentucky defense that allows just a -0.03 EPA on early downs and ranks 56th nationally, this is a matchup of two steady, disciplined units.
I expect the Vols to move the ball methodically, but the Kentucky defense is highly underrated. I would not be surprised to see Tennessee settling for field goals instead of scoring touchdowns in the red zone.
If the Vols establish the run early, which the numbers suggest they can, expect more time of possession, fewer total plays, and a game flow that trends towards a lower-scoring contest.
Kentucky Wildcats Betting Preview
Kentucky’s offense has struggled to match Tennessee's efficiency, and the metrics paint a clear picture of a group that prefers to grind games to a halt.
Look at last week's game against Texas, as the Wildcats' defense dominated throughout the matchup.
Quarterback Cutter Boley has been inconsistent since taking over for Zach Calzada, throwing for four touchdowns and four interceptions.
The Wildcats currently rank 115th nationally in EPA per pass at -0.14, while their rushing attack has been slightly better at -0.02 EPA per rush (82nd). That imbalance often forces Kentucky into predictable downs and longer drives.
Their early downs EPA of -0.06 ranks 108th nationally, which illustrates that they don’t create enough positive plays early in the series to sustain tempo or pressure opposing defenses. The Vols' defense is not elite by any stretch, but they must capitalize in the red zone to give themselves a chance here.
Facing a Tennessee defense that ranks 86th nationally in EPA per rush allowed and 116th in EPA per pass allowed, Kentucky might find occasional success on the ground. Still, the Vols’ aggressive pass rush and strong early-down defense should keep the Cats in check.
Their third-down efficiency at 44.3% isn't impressive, likely translating into more punts and clock-draining possessions. Kentucky doesn’t have the firepower to keep pace with Tennessee.
Stoops's game plan should replicate last week's: shorten the game, rely on defense, and keep things manageable.
Tennessee vs Kentucky NCAAF Week 9 Pick
It's scary given Tennessee's offensive talent, but I believe in Kentucky's defense.
Tennessee’s offense can move the ball, but does so through balance and control, not breakneck tempo.
Kentucky’s offense struggles to string together big plays, and its defense is built to force opponents into methodical drives rather than explosive sequences.
The Vols' script will most likely follow this blueprint: build a big lead through methodical drives and sit on the ball in the second half to get out of Lexington victorious and healthy.
Also, teams coming off a top-10 matchup the previous week tend to look flat the following week, and they will undoubtedly be looking ahead to Oklahoma.
At the same time, the Cats’ defense is far better than the market implies — they showed that last week.
Pick: Under 54 or Better
