Texas A&M vs. Clemson Betting Odds & Guide: Is This Line Too High?

Texas A&M vs. Clemson Betting Odds & Guide: Is This Line Too High? article feature image
Credit:

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kellen Mond and Clelin Ferrell

  • Texas A&M is a big betting underdog to Clemson, according to the latest odds on Saturday morning.
  • Is Clemson's power rating inflated based on decimation of bad teams, or will the Tigers take care of business against the Aggies?

Texas A&M vs. Clemson Betting Odds, Pick

  • Odds: Clemson -16.5
  • Over/Under: 63.5
  • Moneylines: -750, +575
  • Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN
  • Location: Clemson, S.C.

All odds from PointsBet as of Saturday morning.

Clemson continues to get massive respect from oddsmakers and the betting market, entering Saturday’s game against Texas A&M as a 17-point favorite.

The Tigers have won 11 straight games by at least 20 points, and have been a double-digit favorite in 15 of their last 16.

Can this Texas A&M team keep it close like last year, when the Aggies nearly pulled off a stunner in College Station? Let’s dive in.

Market

It’s not often that the books need Clemson in a big way — the Tigers haven’t received less than 30% of bets in a game since 2010 — but that’s exactly what’s taking place in this matchup.

Only 24% of bettors making up for 18% of actual money are taking Clemson, which has helped bring this line down from -20 to -17.

Even more popular than A&M has been the over, which has driven 78% of bets and 91% of dollars, sending the total from 61 to 64.

Jimbo vs. Dabo

These two coaches are very familiar with each other, as they split eight meetings when Fisher was at Florida State. Dabo now leads their head-to-head 5-4 after last season’s narrow victory.

Each coach also has one of the game’s best defensive coordinators by their side but Fisher has always seemed to find a way to move the ball against Brett Venables. — Stuckey

Stuckey: Where I Make This Line

For me, this is pretty simple. I make this number two touchdowns, so I’ll gladly take anything at 17 or above, which I did earlier in the week when I locked in +17.5.

I think the market is inflated on the defending champs, which shouldn’t be surprising for a team that has won 17 straight.

But I actually thought Georgia Tech played Clemson pretty tough at times in a fairly misleading final score. Texas A&M was on the opposite end of the spectrum in Week 1, as it should’ve beat Texas State by 50 with ease if not for some bad luck. The Aggies looked damn good.

You can really throw out last year’s game. Yes, Texas A&M only lost by two but Kelly Bryant played the majority of snaps under center for Clemson, which also didn’t have wide receiver Justyn Ross. The Tigers also had to revamp their entire defensive line, which was one of the most dominant in recent memory.

Against Georgia Tech, Clemson’s defense looked a lot worse up front than I was expecting. I think the Aggie offensive line, which returned all five starters, can give Kellen Mond time to make plays on Saturday night. — Stuckey

Stuckey’s Pick: Texas A&M +17 or better

Wilson: How I’m Betting This Game

I got down as much as possible on Texas A&M at an opener of +20. Using Line Watcher in Sports Insights, I’ll be looking to buy Clemson at -16.5 or lower.

The total also deserves some attention.

Swinney mentioned in his presser that Kellen Mond threw against an inexperienced secondary in last year’s game. This season, the Clemson defense is heavily experienced in the back but more green up front. Jimbo Fisher will throw naked bootlegs and run-pass options in space to keep the Clemson defense on its toes, but the point of attack should be on the new offensive line.

Expect those Mond rollouts to be geared for mid-ranged targets, not big plays downfield. Mond had 10 carries for 30 yards in this game last season, but I expect him to have many more rushing attempts with plenty of his receivers covered.

As for the Clemson attack, Trevor Lawrence will look to rebound from a 2-interception performance against Georgia Tech. To take advantage of the safeties, Lawrence will rely on a rushing attack led by Travis Etienne.

Once the run is established, Lawrence and the stable of receivers will take shots down field. With running expected on both sides of the ball, I will wait for the steam to end on the total before taking an under.

Collin’s Picks:

  • Under, but wait until Saturday afternoon 
  • A&M +20, buy back on Clemson -16 if you got a good A&M number

Special Teams Edge, A&M

The Aggies should have the edge in special teams, primarily due to punter Braden Mann, arguably the best punter in the nation. He’ll be booting to a Clemson team that finished 123rd in the country in punt return efficiency, per SP+.

And the Tigers will be without their most-dynamic punt returner in Amari Rodgers, who’s still recovering from injury.

Texas A&M should win the field position battle and have the more proven field goal kicker.