The Texas State Bobcats take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves in Jonesboro, Ark. Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Texas State is favored by 13.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -500. The total is set at 64 points.
Here are my Texas State vs. Arkansas State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 4, 2025.
Texas St vs Arkansas St Prediction
- Texas State vs Arkansas State Pick: Texas State 1H -6.5 (-105, bet365)
My Texas State vs Arkansas State best bet is on the Bobcats to cover a first-half spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Texas State vs Arkansas State Odds
| Texas St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 64 -110o / -110u | -500 |
| Arkansas St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 64 -110o / -110u | +390 |
- Texas State vs Arkansas State point spread: Texas State -13.5 (-110), Arkansas State +13. 5 (-110)
- Texas State vs Arkansas State over/under: 64
- Texas State vs Arkansas State moneyline: Texas State -500, Arkansas State +390
Texas State vs Arkansas State Preview
Texas State Bobcats Betting Preview: Thriving Attack
The only blemish on Texas State's record this season was a 34-15 loss at College Football Playoff quarterfinalist Arizona State.
Quarterback Brad Jackson has been one of the country's most effective, throwing for six touchdowns and rushing for five more with just one interception thrown. His favorite receiver, junior Beau Sparks, has been on the receiving end of five of those scores, tied for the most among receivers with four games played.
However, a porous defense keeps Texas State's Sun Belt odds significantly lower than those of frontrunner James Madison.
In Year 2 under defensive coordinator Dexter McCoil, Texas State fell from 65th nationally in points per drive allowed to outside the top 100 with a slate that includes UTSA (86th in points per drive), Eastern Michigan (76th), and FCS Nicholls.
Losing Ben Bell on the defensive line has proven to be costly. To make matters worse, starting defensive end Jo'Laison Landry was lost for the season to injury.
The Bobcats rank eighth-worst nationally in allowing 20-plus yard runs (10) and are the worst in the country in Early Down EPA afforded. The defense gets behind the 8-ball early, and teams take advantage of the leaky run defense – not a good combination given this schedule.
Opportunities do lie ahead to improve their marks, given that the Bobcats played two excellent ground attacks in UTSA and ASU.
Losing offensive coordinator Mack Leftwich to Texas Tech hasn't hurt the State offense, as the offensive system is uniquely G.J. Kinne's. Jackson's an elite catalyst for the job, and that's what makes this team so dangerous to all opponents.
Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview: Tough Matchup
Seven of Arkansas State's eight wins last season came by one score. Its five losses combined for a -135 point margin.
So, at 1-4 with losses to Kennesaw State (125th in FBS) and ULM (117th), the obvious regression is validating.
Despite a freshman year flash, quarterback Jaylen Raynor hasn't really progressed all that much as a player, and this year is by far his worst. In 2023 and 2024, Raynor was credited with 14 and 17 turnover-worthy plays; this year, he already has 11 (and not a single game that individually boosts that total, either).
Building the whole plane out of Raynor and wide receiver Corey Rucker just isn't working. Rucker has pulled in fewer than 50% of his targets, and sophomore Chauncy Cobb — a nice surprise to the offense, for sure — has out-everything'd Rucker, save for the lone receiving touchdown Rucker has.
The Arkansas State offense has been painfully inefficient. Without leading rusher Ja'Quez Cross (torn ACL in September), there's no semblance of a run game.
So, holding Iowa State to 24 points must indicate the Red Wolves' defense is offsetting things and keeping the ship afloat, right?
Not exactly. Arkansas ripped this unit to shreds – an expected mismatch, but it was a shredding of Biblical proportions as Arkansas gained 78% of available yards and averaged 54 yards per drive — WHILE Kennesaw State and ULM jumped on this defense early for easy points. There's inexperience on the back end and a lack of depth up front.
Fortunately, Butch Jones has a bye week coming up to correct things. Nevertheless, he has to face the ultra-efficient Bobcats first.
Texas State vs Arkansas State Pick, Betting Analysis
To be up front, the opening number that lined Texas State as an 8.5-point favorite was likely a mistake. The market jumped on board early and moved this number to -13.5 as of Thursday.
Given the matchup, it's easy to see why.
I hate to chase a bad number, but Arkansas State is dreadful. It benefited from a horrible situation against Iowa State at home (after CyHawk) and dropped inexcusable games against Kennesaw State and ULM.
Now, it's time for Arkansas State's own bad situation.
The Red Wolves return home after those back-to-back road losses and, before that, back-to-back Power Conference games (vs. Arkansas in Little Rock, vs. Iowa State). Arkansas State had three road games in four weeks and plays with a rest disadvantage (Texas State comes off a bye). There's a bye week in sight, but this is its sixth straight game, and it's abundantly clear 8-5 isn't in the cards.
Texas State's spread-and-shred offense is a nightmare for a weary team coming off a tough stretch. If Arkansas State can't force turnovers — something Texas State has been stingy to hand out thus far — then this game gets ugly and fast.
Last year played out in San Marcos, but this is a worse Arkansas State team than the 2024 one, and a comparable Texas State team. The Bobcats fronted nearly 600 yards of offense and won, 41-9.
In addition, Arkansas State allows an avalanche of first-half points. Arkansas dumped 28 points on them before the first quarter expired, Iowa State scored 17 of its sleepy 24 in the first half, Kennesaw State scored 21 of its 28 in the first quarter, and ULM scored 14 in the second quarter.
Everything here suggests a strong early start for Texas State.
Pick: Texas State 1H -6.5 (-105, bet365)
