LSU vs. Alabama Line Movement Suggests Betting Market Is Preparing for Tua
Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tua Tagovailoa
- Even though most bettors are taking LSU, oddsmakers have made Alabama an even bigger favorite this morning.
- Based on that line movement, as well as the change to the total, it would appear that the market is expecting Tua Tagovailoa to have a pretty significant impact.
It’s been quite a roller-coaster ride for both the spread and over/under of this afternoon’s LSU-Alabama matchup. I suppose that’s to be expected when one of the most valuable players in college football’s status is uncertain.
But based on how lines have moved, specifically over the past few hours, it would appear that oddsmakers are expecting Tua Tagovalioa to be a significant factor in today’s game.
Odds as of Saturday at 10:45 a.m. ET. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Even though their 5.5-point spread was already attracting bettors to LSU, oddsmakers still found a reason to raise that spread to 6.5 points on Saturday morning, and it doesn’t seem to be a result of increased confidence in the Alabama defense.
A simultaneous rise to the total — which has gone from 63 to 64/64.5 this morning — means that oddsmakers are expecting a touch more offense, specifically from Alabama, which would imply that they’re expecting more out of Tua.
Our college football guru, Collin Wilson, power rated this game at Alabama -7.5 with a healthy Tua, so we’re not quite at that point yet — and probably never will be. I don’t think anyone is expecting a 100% performance from the Bama quarterback, and given the importance of seven points in football betting, it would take a much more convincing status update — or some serious sharp action — to get this spread up to a full touchdown.
Without Tua, however, Wilson sees the Tide as just 2.5-point favorites, so the current spread being four points higher — and on the other side of some key numbers — allows us to assume that the market is expecting him to play a pretty major role.