The Tulane Green Wave will go against the UTSA Roadrunners in San Antonio, Texas. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Tulane is favored by -4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -200. The total is set at 55.5 points.
Here is my Tulane vs. UTSA prediction and college football picks for Thursday, October 30.
Tulane vs UTSA Prediction
- Tulane vs. UTSA Pick: UTSA +4.5
My UTSA vs. Tulane best bet is on the Roadrunners to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Tulane vs UTSA Odds
| Tulane Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
| UTSA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
- Tulane vs UTSA point spread: Tulane -4.5 (-110), UTSA +4.5 (-110)
- Tulane vs UTSA over/under: 55.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Tulane vs UTSA moneyline: Tulane -200, UTSA +165
Tulane vs UTSA Preview
Tulane Green Wave Betting Preview: Living Dangerously
Tulane enters this matchup as a narrow road favorite, but that number may not fully reflect how evenly matched these teams are.
Offensively, the Green Wave have relied on explosive passing moments more than consistent efficiency.
Quarterback Jake Retzlaff only has five touchdown passes in the season, but let's not forget that he missed action due to injury. He's also chipped in eight scores on the ground.
Tulane ranks near the bottom half of the nation in rushing efficiency (102nd in EPA per rush). Its early-down numbers are average, outside the top 70 nationally.
That inconsistency has led to longer third downs, with the Wave averaging nearly 7.7 yards to go. The Roadrunners could create a decent amount of Havoc on the defensive line, forcing Tulane into unfavorable down-and-distance situations throughout the contest.
That is what we call living dangerously, as many of Tulane's wins are dubious. Four of Tulane's six wins have been by one possession or less.
The Wave's defense has also been inconsistent throughout the season. There have been moments when they look stout, but other times, they look completely lost.
Against the run, Tulane has been sound, ranking 44th nationally in EPA allowed per rush while holding opponents to just 41.5% of available yards.
However, the pass defense has been a concern. Opponents generate +0.20 EPA per pass, ranking 125th nationally. This glaring weakness can be exploited by a UTSA offense led by quarterback Owen McCown, who’s comfortable pushing the ball vertically.
Tulane’s offense has also struggled to establish favorable field position, starting around its own 27-yard line on average. That tells me the Wave have been lacking on Special Teams.
Let's also factor in that head coach Jon Sumrall has been receiving a lot of buzz for the new vacancies at elite Power 4 programs, so that type of distraction could throw off a team's motivation and morale. It's not definite, of course, but I think it plays into the handicap.
UTSA Roadrunners Betting Preview: Efficient QB Play
UTSA’s 3–4 record doesn’t tell the whole story of how competitive this team has been, particularly at home.
The Roadrunners are built on efficient quarterback play and elite field position. They rank first in the nation in average starting field position, beginning drives at their own 38-yard line.
That advantage consistently shortens the field and offsets occasional inefficiency in the run game. I was very high on the Roadrunners entering the year, and their 3-4 record has not deterred me from backing them.
Quarterback Owen McCown is the leader of the offense, having another fine season with 12 touchdown passes and two interceptions. The Roadrunners rank 40th nationally in EPA per pass at +0.15, while the rushing attack sits slightly below average at −0.05 EPA per rush.
They’re converting 44.5% of third and fourth downs and maintaining control of drives, gaining 58.5% of available yards — a top-20 national mark. With the extra week of preparation, they should be able to move the ball here, especially against a suspect Tulane secondary.
Defensively, UTSA has been quietly underrated. The Roadrunners’ pass defense ranks 28th nationally in EPA per pass at −0.11, meaning they’re not just surviving in the backend but forcing inefficient throws through their defensive line, causing Havoc.
Their run defense is less consistent, ranking 106th, but Tulane cannot run the ball on offense. What stands out is how they limit big plays and force long drives.
At home, UTSA has been a different team. The Alamodome atmosphere has consistently fueled sharper execution and improved efficiency, especially early in games. That edge can't be overlooked against a Tulane team that has been fortunate to begin the season.
Thus far in 2025, UTSA has scored at least 36 points per game at home, and I like its chances to explode offensively, primarily through the air.
Tualne is also coming off a bye, but this is the perfect buy-low opportunity for Meep Meep.
Tulane vs UTSA Pick, Betting Analysis
This number feels inflated given the situational and statistical context.
Tulane’s defensive backfield has been vulnerable to efficient passing teams, and UTSA’s offense fits that profile perfectly.
Tulane’s run defense may slow UTSA’s ground game early, but the passing matchup strongly favors the Roadrunners, especially given that Tulane ranks 125th nationally in EPA per Pass allowed.
Meanwhile, UTSA’s defense can hold its own against a Tulane offense that has struggled to sustain drives and should face long third downs.
In a controlled dome environment and under the Thursday night lights, the home-field advantage should really help.
Expect a tight, one-possession-driven game where Tulane’s efficiency doesn’t justify being more than a field-goal favorite.
I am not giving up on UTSA and am ready to sell the Green Wave high.
Pick: UTSA +4.5 (Play to +3)
