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UAB vs North Texas Prediction, Pick, Odds: Neither Defense Has a Chance

UAB vs North Texas Prediction, Pick, Odds: Neither Defense Has a Chance article feature image
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Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: UAB head coach Trent Dilfer.

UAB vs North Texas Odds

Saturday, Nov. 25
2 p.m. ET
ESPN+
UAB Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+2
-115
73.5
-115o / -105u
+115
North Texas Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-2
-105
73.5
-115o / -105u
-140
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

I have to take a moment and express how much of a pleasure it's been to dunk all over Trent Dilfer for 12 weeks this year.

This season has been more fun to write about because of him.

Let's break down Dilfer's squad for the last time this season and head out to Denton, Texas, where the North Texas Mean Green will host the UAB Blazers.

With both teams out of the bowl picture, I expect some funkiness in this matchup. I hope both coaches empty their playbooks, which, in Dilfer's case, could be more negative than positive.

Let's break down both of these teams and uncover some betting value with our UAB vs. North Texas prediction in our college football betting preview for Saturday, Nov. 25.



Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

UAB Blazers

Dilfer let me down last week with some questionable play-calling early on in the first half. I shouldn't be surprised, but it took until the second half for the Blazers' offense to kick into gear against Temple.

The Blazers won the game, and quarterback Jacob Zeno continues to compile a terrific statistical season. This week, he will need to play his best going up against Mean Green quarterback Chandler Rogers, who has been shredding defenses of late.

It's the same old story for these Blazers: terrific offense, horrific defense. Although it took them time to wake up a bit last week, this offense resumed their prototypical explosiveness after taking a week off against Navy.

This Blazers offense should have a massive advantage against the Mean Green defense. They're top 10 in Rush Success Rate and Line yards, categories that the Mean Green rank in the bottom 10 defensively.

Whether it's Zeno or running back Jermaine Brown Jr., there are plenty of options for the Blazers to move the chains in this game. I have concerns about the Blazers being 85th in Finishing Drives, but the Mean Green defense gives you a free pass to the end zone once you cross the 40-yard line.

I'm not wasting any more words on this pathetic defense. I've spent 12 weeks talking about how awful it is, and honestly, that doesn't even do it justice.

The Blazers have one of the worst defenses in the entire Power 5, and I can't see how they make stops in this matchup. Temple easily should've cleared 40 points last week, but it shot itself in the foot multiple times.


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North Texas Mean Green

After a 0-3 start, this Mean Green team has looked entirely different.

I have no idea why Rogers was not the starter to begin the season because this kid is an absolute baller.

There isn't a throw he can't make, and he's going to bed every night this week with a big smile heading into this matchup. As I mentioned, the Blazers' defense is nearly dead last in every advanced defensive metric.

Notably, the Mean Green are 14th in Line Yards, a category the Blazers are third to last. Whether it's Rogers or running back Oscar Adaway III, the Mean Green can move the chains consistently all game long.

Adaway torched the Tulsa defense last week for 16 carries and 126 yards. He will get plenty of chances to be explosive on the ground again.

The defensive side of the ball is what is leaving me doubts about the Mean Green winning this game. Just like the Blazers unit, it's a complete horror show.

This group is neck-and-neck with the Blazers, with both ranking at the bottom of the defensive metrics list. It's pretty much going to come down to whichever team has the ball last, as I doubt either of these teams will make stops.


UAB vs North Texas

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UAB and North Texas match up statistically:

UAB Offense vs. North Texas Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success9128
Line Yards3124
Pass Success29112
Havoc107128
Finishing Drives85129
Quality Drives48128
North Texas Offense vs. UAB Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success34133
Line Yards14130
Pass Success5177
Havoc7178
Finishing Drives31115
Quality Drives39131
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling6676
PFF Coverage9890
Special Teams SP+13221
Middle 861112
Seconds per Play24.6 (21)23.2 (9)
Rush Rate49.6% (99)49.5% (105)

UAB vs North Texas

Betting Pick & Prediction

Unless there is a turnover frenzy, I don't see a world where this game goes under. Both defenses are in the bottom 10 in quality and finishing drives allowed, which leads me to believe there will be no shortage of points in this game.

Considering both teams can't make a bowl, I think an underrated aspect of this matchup is that both offenses will empty their bag of tricks. I wouldn't be surprised to see some fake punts and a lot of fourth-down attempts in their own territories.

Rogers and Zeno should carve up the opposing defenses, and I expect both to have tremendous success. I think you're a crazy person for taking this Under because I can't back either defense with how they're playing.

This could be a tremendous live-trading game where you can get both teams at +3 or better at some point.

Regardless, the pregame play is over, and I just hope Dilfer doesn't disappoint me.

Pick: Over 74 (Play to 75.5)

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