The UCLA Bruins take on the Michigan State Spartans in East Lansing, MI. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on BTN.
Michigan State is favored by -8.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -315. The total is set at 55 points.
Here’s my UCLA vs. Michigan State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 11, 2025.
UCLA vs Michigan State Prediction
- UCLA vs. Michigan State Pick: Michigan State Over 31.5 Team Total
My Michigan State vs. UCLA best bet is on the Spartans to clear their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UCLA vs Michigan State Odds
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | +255 |
| Michigan St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | -315 |
- UCLA vs Michigan State point spread: Michigan State -8.5
- UCLA vs Michigan State over/under: 55 points
- UCLA vs Michigan State moneyline: UCLA +255, Michigan State -315
UCLA vs Michigan State Preview
UCLA Bruins Betting Preview: Overmatched Defense
From Weeks 1-5, UCLA didn't lead a football game for a single second. So naturally, at 0-4, UCLA upset top-10 Penn State at home in Week 6.
Against a shocking defensive performance, quarterback Nico Iamaleava accounted for nearly 300 yards and five touchdowns. From those, 150 yards and a trio of touchdowns came on the ground. There was little else to generate excitement, but to be fair, there wasn't much else needed.
The question remains: Is this model sustainable?
Perhaps, considering UCLA also changed offensive play-callers ahead of the game. However, I'm trusting defensive coordinators to watch the tape and create a game plan to neutralize and penalize UCLA for relying strictly on Iamaleava to do it all himself.
Against veteran defensive coordinators, UCLA is unlikely to drop 42 points again in the future with this approach.
Defensively, the Bruins are still overmatched each and every week. We can chalk New Mexico up to a quit factor, but this personnel stinks in every facet of the game. Teams can choose to run or pass the ball and experience moderate success either way.
Eight defensive starters and three other rotators are now without the coaching staff that recruited them to UCLA through the transfer portal this offseason.
UCLA doesn't have much of a pass rush to speak of (101st in sack rate), and the secondary can't cover average or better FBS receivers.
With Indiana, Ohio State, Washington and USC left on the schedule, this defense is going nowhere but down from its already-abysmal 129th ranking in points per drive allowed.
But could UCLA ride the interim bump for another weekend?
Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview: O-Line in Trouble
Although Michigan State stands 3-0 at home on the season, it hasn't played a quality FBS opponent in East Lansing yet (Western Michigan, Boston College, Youngstown State).
The Spartans opened up Big Ten play 0-2 with losses at USC and Nebraska.
Quarterback Aidan Chiles has cut down on the turnovers so far this season (three interceptions on 121 attempts and no fumbles), but the offense hasn't really progressed from last season.
The lack of a run game has improved slightly under sophomore Makhi Frazier, but the offensive line still isn't very good, especially when trying to generate a push up front.
To make matters worse in that department, starting left tackle Stanton Ramil is out another three or so weeks after suffering an injury late in September.
Without Ramil, a nightmare game unfolded for Chiles. He completed just 9-of-23 passes for 85 total yards and took four sacks. The Huskers logged a ridiculous 12 tackles for loss as Michigan State averaged 2.3 yards per rush.
Those woes on the offensive line won't heal during the upcoming schedule against Indiana, Michigan and Minnesota, but it gets a reprieve this week against UCLA.
Defensively, Michigan State is suffering from a few injury losses. Starting safety Nikai Martinez missed Weeks 1-3 before returning, but he sat out the last game against Nebraska, as did defensive back Ade Willie.
Keep an eye on both; they reportedly practiced this week.
There are only a couple of "winnable" Big Ten spots where Michigan State should be favored this season. A slip-up against UCLA could mean further scrutiny of Jonathan Smith as head coach in East Lansing.
UCLA vs Michigan State Pick, Betting Analysis
Michigan State opened just a -4.5 home favorite, which the market deemed a severe overreaction to last week. The Spartans grew to -8.5, moving through the key figure of -7 in the process.
UCLA plays this game at 9:00 a.m. local time — a really difficult spot for West Coast teams. Temperatures around kickoff aren't forecast to break 60 degrees until the first half is well underway.
Interestingly, UCLA went 4-0 against the spread when traveling two-plus time zones back last season, including twice when the game started at noon ET.
This is also a huge letdown spot for UCLA after its emotional victory. The Bruins face a Spartans team that understands this is one of the few (or the only!) really good shots at notching a Big Ten win, and Smith certainly understands the implications of losing this one.
Chiles and the Michigan State offense are capable of scoring on below-average defenses like Boston College. The Spartans rank 12th in points per quality drive (h/t CFB-Graphs), and they've taken full advantage of scoring off turnovers this year.
UCLA's defense, even in the historic upset, provided little resistance. This is a spot at home for Michigan State to score some points.
Iamaleava tends to turn the ball over, and that'll certainly hurt against an opportunistic defense.
Pick: Michigan State Over 31.5 Team Total
