UMass vs UConn Odds, Predictions, Picks: Friday CFB Betting Preview (Nov. 4)
M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Langston Hardy of the UConn Huskies
UMass vs UConn Odds
| UMass Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15.5 -110 | 40.5 -105o / -115u | +500 |
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15.5 -110 | 40.5 -105o / -115u | -720 |
Saturday's slate presents some big-time games as Tennessee looks to take down Georgia between the hedges and further establish itself as the best team in the country. Alabama heads to Death Valley to square off with the Tigers under the lights and Texas will try to hold off the red-hot Kansas State Wildcats.
But before we get to all those games, we kick the weekend off right — with a battle of two independent programs that rank among the bottom 10 in the nation.
This is a game only alums and true gamblers could love. The UMass Minutemen, who rank dead last in Collin Wilson's Power Ratings, will make the 51-mile trek to Hartford to square off with the UConn Huskies.
"The U Game" rivalry dates back to 1897, with the Minutemen leading the all-time series 37-34-2. This year's meeting will mark the fourth consecutive showdown since the 1990s.
Since the two rekindled the series in 2018, neither team has won back-to-back years. UMass won last year's meeting 27-13 and is slated as a 15.5-point underdog Friday.
Massachusetts Minutemen
The Minutemen have yet to win a game against an FBS opponent this season as their only win came against FCS Stony Brook in Week 3.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Minutemen are the worst in all of college football in scoring and passing yards, averaging 12.1 points and 78.8 yards per game.
Their offense relies entirely on the run and they rank fourth in the country in rush rate. They do have some talented rushers and have had five players put up over 100 yards on the ground, but the team averages less than four yards per carry.
When they find themselves in the red zone, they run into even more problems. No team in FBS is worse than Massachusetts at Finishing Drives.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Minutemen show signs of being a real college football team. They rank among the top 75 in Defensive Rush Success, Pass Success, Finishing Drives and Havoc.
The Huskies offense hasn't been as bad as UMass, but this defense could give them some issues on Friday night.
Connecticut Huskies
The Huskies come into this matchup looking to make it 2-0 against the state of Massachusetts after they shocked the world last week and beat Boston College, 13-3, as 7.5-point underdogs.
Their upset win moved UConn to 4-5 on the season and, more importantly, 7-2 ATS. Friday night's matchup will be the third time the Huskies are favored this season and they both won and covered in each of the first two.
UConn's win over Boston College was primarily due to the five forced turnovers. Those won't be as readily available against a Minutemen team that runs the ball more than 70% of the time and ranks 49th in turnover margin.
The Huskies offense is very similar to UMass, leaning almost entirely on the rush as they rank 127th in the nation in pass success. Connecticut (6th) doesn't rank far behind UMass in rush rate but has gotten more out of every rush and is averaging 4.4 yards per carry.
UConn averages 17.6 points and 178 rush yards per contest.
The Huskies defense may rank outside the top 100 in rush and pass success, but you don't need to be much better than that to have an advantage over the Minutemen.
UMass vs UConn Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UMass and UConn match up statistically:
UMass Offense vs. UConn Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 129 | 113 | |
| Line Yards | 117 | 108 | |
| Pass Success | 131 | 117 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 52 | 83 | |
| Havoc | 119 | 99 | |
| Finishing Drives | 131 | 55 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
UConn Offense vs. UMass Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 89 | 52 | |
| Line Yards | 106 | 70 | |
| Pass Success | 127 | 54 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 24 | 103 | |
| Havoc | 120 | 38 | |
| Finishing Drives | 76 | 51 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 42 | 93 |
| PFF Coverage | 121 | 31 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 110 | 74 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.3 (119) | 29.3 (118) |
| Rush Rate | 70.6% (4) | 66.2% (6) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
UMass vs UConn Betting Pick
UConn is the better team, and while our Action Network projections make the Huskies a 16-point favorite over UMass, I can't lay a double-digit number in this game.
Both teams rank inside the top 10 in rush rate and are also outside the top 100 in seconds per play.
Neither team has been productive on offense when it comes to finishing drives, and when you look at their Defensive Finishing Drives numbers, you could make a case it's the best quality for both teams.
I wouldn't be surprised to see this game have less than 15 total points. Therefore, I will be making the only bet that could make this game even less enjoyable to watch: the under.
I'm confident in this game staying under 40 points.
Pick: Under 40.5 or Better |
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