USC vs Arizona State Odds & Prediction: Target Saturday Night’s Over/Under

USC vs Arizona State Odds & Prediction: Target Saturday Night’s Over/Under article feature image

Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13).

USC vs Arizona State Odds

Saturday, Sept. 23
10:30 p.m. ET
USC Odds
-105o / -115u
Arizona State Odds
-105o / -115u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

The USC Trojans embark on their first road trip of the season to face the Arizona State Sun Devils on Saturday.

These teams enter this game on completely different trajectories, as USC is flying high with Caleb Williams, while ASU has lost its last two games amid lots of injuries.

While there have been plenty of entertaining games in this series, this will not be one of them. The gap between the Trojans offense and the Sun Devils' injury-riddled offense is about the size of the Grand Canyon, which is why it makes perfect sense for USC to be such a big favorite.

Let's take a look at the odds in the final Pac-12 matchup between ASU and USC.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

USC Trojans

When they aren't restricting access to local reporters, the Trojans are pretty good at putting points on the board.

Williams is the rare hyped-up quarterback who actually lives up to all the hype. He's so good that nobody bats an eye when he's compared to Patrick Mahomes, and he's putting up Mahomes-level stats in college.

After a masterful Heisman campaign last year, Williams already has thrown for 878 yards and 12 touchdowns in three games this season, and that's with him sitting out large portions of second halves because USC is blowing teams out.

It helps that Williams has an almost endless stream of weapons in Lincoln Riley's offense.

Tahj Washington leads the team in receiving with 233 yards and three touchdowns, but there's hardly any drop-off from him to Dorian Singer, Zachariah Branch, Mario Williams, Brenden Rice and Duce Robinson.

The Trojans can kill teams on the ground as well, with MarShawn Lloyd rushing for 7.8 yards per carry.

Even though USC's offense grabs the headlines, its defense looks to be a bit better than it was last year. The Trojans defense also grades out well, and it makes sense after they allowed 24 total points in their last two games, and most of those scores were in garbage time.

USC has gotten after the passer with eight sacks as a team, led by Solomon Byrd with a team-leading 2.5 sacks.

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Arizona State Sun Devils

Good fortune has not been on the side of the Sun Devils this football season.

Head coach Kenny Dillingham brought in tons of transfers to help ASU bounce back after the Herm Edwards era, but a poorly-timed postseason ban announcement and an almost comical amount of injuries have thrown everything out of whack.

This isn't just missing a few starters. Just look at how bad the Sun Devils offensive line has been hit with the injury bug:

ASU OL is a MASH unit. That's the primary problem.

Isaia Glass — DNP injury
Ben Coleman — DNP injury
Cade Briggs — DNP injury
Aaron Frost — DNP (not fully back from ACL)
Emmit Bohle — Done on first drive
Joey Ramos — Played with hand in a club.

How many offenses are…

— Chris Karpman (@ChrisKarpman) September 10, 2023

Not good! And the offensive line isn't the only problem.

Freshman starting quarterback Jaden Rashada is out. Backup QB Trenton Bourguet is out. Running backs DeCarlos Brooks and Tevin White likely won't play. Defensive end Clayton Smith, backup offensive tackle Max Iheanachor and wide receiver Melquan Stovall each left the Fresno State loss with injuries as well, just to name a few.

As a result, ASU has not scored a single point in its last six quarters. It suffered eight turnovers in its 29-0 loss to Fresno State last Saturday (yes, you read that right), four of which came from backup QB Drew Pyne.

Pyne actually threw for 318 yards and three touchdowns against the Trojans last year when he was at Notre Dame, but he does not have the ND offensive line in front of him this time, so it's hard to envision a repeat performance.

In spite of all the offensive issues, the Sun Devils defense has actually been decent.

ASU had six sacks against the Bulldogs and that helped them limit Fresno State to 29 points, which is pretty impressive given all the turnovers. The Sun Devils are top-40 in Rushing and Passing Success Rate, so maybe they provide a bit more resistance than USC is used to.

USC vs Arizona State

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how USC and Arizona State match up statistically:

USC Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
Rush Success1438
Line Yards367
Pass Success440
Finishing Drives1979
Quality Drives14108
Arizona State Offense vs. USC Defense
Rush Success9461
Line Yards9223
Pass Success12320
Finishing Drives1251
Quality Drives12925
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling5965
PFF Coverage4977
Special Teams SP+5666
Middle 84876
Seconds per Play26.0 (55)25.3 (35)
Rush Rate43.9% (111)49.5% (101)

USC vs Arizona State

Betting Pick & Prediction

When most sportsbooks are favoring USC by 34 to 35 points, it is fair to expect this game to be an absolute blowout. I just don't like the spread because I don't want to risk a backdoor cover by ASU. It's just too many points.

That's why I like the over of 61.5 points. The Trojans can get to 50 on their own, and I think the Sun Devils are capable of a functional offensive outing that scores 14 or 17 points. ASU won't commit that many turnovers again and that should lead to more scoring drives — even if they come in garbage time.

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