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USF vs UTSA Prediction, Odds: Bet Friday’s Big Favorite

USF vs UTSA Prediction, Odds: Bet Friday’s Big Favorite article feature image

Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Frank Harris of UTSA.

USF Bulls vs UTSA Roadrunners Odds

Friday, Nov. 17
9 p.m. ET
USF Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

It's time to dive into the USF Bulls vs. UTSA Roadrunners prediction for Friday, Nov. 17.

The Bulls of the University of South Florida visit the University of Texas at San Antonio Roadrunners in Week 12 at the Alamodome for a big AAC matchup late in the year.

USF has had some very competitive games this season, but it currently sits at 5-5 on the season after dropping three of its last five games. The Bulls will be looking to steal a road victory to reach bowl eligibility this week.

UTSA, meanwhile, has been on a roll after a shaky start to the season. The Roadrunners are 6-0 in their last six, resulting in a 6-0 record in conference.

They're in the mix of this three-team race at the top of the AAC.

Do they have the grit to keep the win streak rolling and win big at home this week?

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South Florida Bulls

USF head coach Alex Golesh has done an impressive job with his squad after finishing 1-11 last season with many of the same players. He'll look to really make a statement in this one with a big road win.

Offensively, the Bulls have put up 30 points per game, mostly to the credit of dual-threat quarterback Byrum Brown. The kid has been unbelievable with 2,538 yards through the air and 659 yards on the ground.

While Brown has been impressive, this offense ranks just 93rd through the air and even worse at 105th on the ground.

The only bright spot has been explosiveness. USF ranks second in big plays on the ground, which can be mainly credited to Brown’s ability to keep defenses guessing.

Running Back Nay’Quan Wright has also been impressive, picking up 4.8 yards per carry on the season. The Bulls will need some explosive plays in this one to keep it close because the Roadrunners have been rolling of late.

Golesh’s team has been pretty bad defensively. His squad has been better than his offense in terms of Success Rate, but his team still allows 35.6 points per game on the season. This mainly comes at the expense of a run defense that ranks 80th and 118th in explosiveness.

The front seven for USF is getting gouged in the run game. The pass defense has been pretty solid at 47th overall, but again, it still allows the big play and ranks 133rd in explosiveness.

The Bulls will need to be good against the run and the pass early, because if they fall behind, the Roadrunners could punish them on the ground.

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UTSA Roadrunners

Jeff Traylor will need to have his team focused on an AAC Championship this week at home with only two games remaining on the year. However, it will be difficult to stay focused on this week with a big matchup against Tulane looming next week that will be a key factor in determining the AAC.

Frank Harris and this offense continue to roll after the signal-caller finally got fully healthy this season. I expect them to continue to find success this week.

The Roadrunners average 31.5 points per game and do so with a pretty balanced attack on offense. Harris has the pass offense ranked 44th in Success Rate this season, which plays into USF’s strength on the defensive side of the ball.

The run game ranks 112th, which will need to be better in order to put away USF.

The bright spot is the explosiveness in the run game that the Roadrunners have found this season. They come in at 12th overall in that area, but they'll need to also be methodical to put this one away.

UTSA has a pretty stout defense, allowing only 24.6 points per game on the season. However, it doesn't help this offense much in the turnover battle as the team sits at -1 overall.

The Roadrunners are solid against the run at 47th overall, but they're vulnerable against the big play, where they sit 114th in defensive run explosiveness. That'll be a concern if USF can keep the game close and continue to utilize the run game.

The pass defense for Traylor’s squad has been very solid, ranking 68th against the aerial attack.

The key for this defense is its Havoc rating of 26th. This team flies around on the defensive side of the ball, making it hard for anyone to get their offense going. The Roadrunners will need to lean on that chaos here if they want to win big and start looking to next week.


Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how USF and UTSA match up statistically:

USF Offense vs. UTSA Defense
Rush Success10750
Line Yards9339
Pass Success9151
Finishing Drives10093
Quality Drives8066
UTSA Offense vs. USF Defense
Rush Success10363
Line Yards9633
Pass Success44120
Finishing Drives4485
Quality Drives3095
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling116106
PFF Coverage124112
Special Teams SP+9834
Middle 810236
Seconds per Play21.6 (3)24.6 (23)
Rush Rate57.1% (55)54.4% (60)


Betting Pick & Prediction

While I do have concerns with UTSA’s run game and its ability to put this one away, I trust Traylor to have his guys ready. I especially expect his defense to come out ready to play and slow down the Bulls’ attack.

Harris and the Roadrunners are focused on the prize at the end, and I think they win big this week and keep the momentum rolling ahead of the postseason.

Give me UTSA -16.5.

Pick: UTSA -16.5

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