The UTEP Miners take on the Missouri State Bears in Springfield, Mo. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Missouri State is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -200. The total is set at 49.5 points.
Here’s my UTEP vs. Missouri State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, November 15.
UTEP vs Missouri State Prediction
- UTEP vs. Missouri State Pick: UTEP +4.5 (-110, bet365)
My Missouri State vs. UTEP best bet is on the Miners to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UTEP vs Missouri State Odds
| UTEP Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
| Missouri St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
- UTEP vs Missouri State point spread: Missouri State -4.5 (-110), UTEP +4.5 (-110)
- UTEP vs Missouri State over/under: 49.5 (-110o / -110u)
- UTEP vs Missouri State moneyline: UTEP +165, Missouri State -200
UTEP vs Missouri State Preview
This game triggered one of our Action PRO systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
Small Dog in Small Game is a college football system built around the idea that underdogs in lower-profile matchups can be undervalued when attention and betting volume are limited.
These games typically kick off in the afternoon or evening window and occur early in the season, within the first nine contests, when teams are still developing identities.
The underdog in this range is slight to moderate, with spreads of 2 to 11.5 points, and often comes into the game with little momentum, having won or lost only a game or two in a short streak.
Because betting activity on these contests is lower than the daily average, the market is less efficient, and lines move very little from open to close, creating opportunities in which perception has more influence than performance.
When public money leans toward the favorite but not overwhelmingly, the small dog benefits from value created by these market dynamics and covers more often than expected.
UTEP vs Missouri State Pick
As Stuckey wrote in his Situational Spots piece last week, UTEP is one of the nation's most undervalued teams.
The Miners boast an elite defense (sixth nationally in EPA per Play allowed) paired with an offense that's improving after switching to Skyler Locklear at quarterback.
They've suffered a few brutal beats recently. The Miners lost to Kennesaw State by 13 after allowing 16 non-offensive points. They lost to Jacksonville State last week on a last-minute field goal despite out-gaining the Gamecocks (463 yards to 419) and posting a far higher Success Rate (49% to 41%).
Meanwhile, Missouri State might be overvalued. The Bears don't do anything particularly well, and they've won four consecutive one-score games (21-17 over Liberty, 28-21 over FIU, 24-17 over New Mexico State, 22-20 over Middle Tennessee).
Our Action PRO projections make UTEP a one-point road 'dog on Saturday, so I'll take a shot with Miner Nation at anything over a field goal, especially with this PRO system on my side.
Pick: UTEP +4.5 (-110, bet365)
