The UTSA Roadrunners take on the Colorado State Rams in Fort Collins, CO. Kickoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
UTSA is favored by -4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -200. The total is set at 59.5 points.
Here’s my UTSA vs. Colorado State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 20, 2025.
UTSA vs Colorado State Prediction
- UTSA vs. Colorado State Pick: Over 59.5 (Play to 61)
My Colorado State vs. UTSA best bet is on the over for total points in this game. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UTSA vs Colorado State Odds
| UTSA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -105 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
| Colorado St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -115 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
- UTSA vs Colorado State point spread: UTSA -4.5
- UTSA vs Colorado State over/under: 59.5 points
- UTSA vs Colorado State moneyline: UTSA -200, Colorado St +165
UTSA vs Colorado State Preview
UTSA Roadrunners Betting Preview: Struggling Defense
The Roadrunners took care of business last week against Incarnate Word. Now they travel to Fort Collins in a tough spot in altitude.
UTSA has one of the best offenses in the Group of 5, but its metrics are worrisome. First, its offensive line has some issues, as it ranks well below average in Line Yards and Opportunity Rate.
The Roadrunners have done a decent job in protection, but these metrics suggest they're getting pushed around in the trenches.
Also, their offense has lacked the explosiveness that I expected them to have.
However, they're 17th in the nation in EPA/Rush and 30th in Early Down EPA/Play. The Rams are tough to run against, but they've struggled in the secondary.
This matchup is a good opportunity for quarterback Owen McCown, who's completing 65% of his passes with six touchdowns and no interceptions.
Despite their offensive line not showing the best results, running back Robert Henry Jr. has been a man possessed on the ground. He's averaging over 10 yards per carry with 469 yards and five touchdowns.
It's a tough matchup on the ground, but the offense led by McCown and Henry Jr. will eventually translate into more explosive plays down the field.
The issue I have here is that the UTSA defense hasn't been the best thus far. They've allowed a ton of explosive plays, and they rank outside the bottom 100 in Rushing and Passing Success Rate.
The Rams have been excellent up front, so their defensive line is going to have some trouble generating pressure and stopping the run.
I don't envision many stops by the UTSA defense, and that could be the main reason the Roadrunners get upset here.
Colorado State Rams Betting Preview: Secondary Needs to Improve
The Rams are coming off a bye week, which should help immensely against the UTSA offense. The Rams looked ugly in their latest win against Northern Colorado, but I like the situational spot for them to show up at home.
The offense will face a juicy matchup against a Roadrunners defense that's been tormented through its first three games. That's precisely what quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi needs, considering the passing attack has been highly inefficient thus far.
The Rams are 115th in Total Pass EPA, but this matchup is so supreme that Colorado State could build momentum through the air. The Rams have been excellent on the ground, and their running back room is deep.
They're third in Rush Success Rate and 34th overall in Rush EPA. Even if the passing attack is still struggling, they should be able to consistently pick up big chunks of yards on the ground.
Defensively, I have my concerns about the UTSA passing attack. The Roadrunners haven't been firing on all cylinders just yet, but the talent of McCown and the wide receiver room shouldn't be overlooked.
The Rams are 99th in Total Pass EPA Allowed and could be in trouble. Luckily, their run defense has been stout, which is enormous considering how electric Henry has been for UTSA.
I have questions about the Rams' secondary, but the market line movement suggests they're live to win this game at home.
UTSA vs Colorado State Pick, Betting Analysis
I don't trust either team against the spread, but these offenses will score consistently. I'm not in love with the Rams' offense overall, but the UTSA defense needs to prove to me that it can put together a solid performance before I can consider backing them.
It's a tremendous matchup for both offenses, primarily through the air. It's only a matter of time before the UTSA passing attack turns explosive, and this is the time for the Roadrunners to cash in.
The Rams' rushing attack could explode, so we may not even need a strong performance from their passing attack for the total to go over.
I'm staying away from the Rams' market steam, but I expect points galore in Fort Collins.
Pick: Over 59.5
