Week 11 College Football Analytics Betting Preview: Success Rate, Havoc & More (November 11)
Rob Foldy/Getty Images. Pictured: A Florida flag.
We have to throw an Action Analytics preview in the loss column following a despicable beat in the Coastal Carolina-Old Dominion game.
After an absolutely beautiful 13-point first half, the Chanticleers and Monarchs combined for 39 in the second half for a last-minute beat in a thriller.
Again, absolutely despicable, but we must look forward to Week 11 and put this in the rearview somehow. Onto the next one!
This breakdown looks at three metrics that have proven to be relevant to covering the spread:
If you're interested in why these metrics have been chosen, check out this piece by Collin Wilson. To quote his findings:
“Data from the past five years indicates defensive Success Rate, Havoc and Finishing Drives are the biggest indicators in beating oddsmakers this college football season.”
Let’s dive in and see where we can find an edge in Week 11.
Havoc
What is Havoc?
Havoc is a college football term defined as a play where there’s an unexpected outcome. Pass breakups, forced fumbles and tackles for loss are just a few of the plays that cause chaos on any given Saturday. Collectively, these plays are used to build an identity for a team.
The calculation for Havoc is simply a cumulative number of tackles for loss, interceptions, fumbles and passes defensed divided by the number of plays on both sides of the ball.
Let's see where we can find some big Havoc discrepancies in Week 11:
Home Team Havoc Allowed vs. Away Team Havoc Rate
Top 3 Havoc Mismatches (Home Offense vs. Away Defense)
- SMU Offense vs. North Texas Defense
- Kansas Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
- UTSA Offense vs. Rice Defense
Away Team Havoc Allowed vs. Home Team Havoc Rate
Top 3 Havoc Mismatches (Away Offense vs. Home Defense)
- Oklahoma State Offense vs. UCF Defense
- Toledo Defense vs. Eastern Michigan Offense
- Syracuse Defense vs. Pittsburgh Offense
Success Rate
What is Success Rate?
Success Rate is an advanced metric in football that measures efficiency but with the important context of down and distance considered.
A play is defined as successful if:
- It gains at least 50% of the yards required to move the chains on first down
- 70% of yards to gain on second down
- 100% of yards to gain on third or fourth down
To calculate Success Rate, simply divide the number of successful plays (as defined by down and distance above) by total plays.
This definition is taken from our article on Success Rate.
Home Team Offensive Success Rate vs. Away Team Defensive Success Rate
Top 3 Success Rate Mismatches (Home Offense vs. Away Defense)
- Oregon State Offense vs. Stanford Defense
- Boise State Offense vs. New Mexico Defense
- Troy Defense vs. ULM Offense
Away Team Offensive Success Rate vs. Home Team Defensive Success Rate
Top 3 Success Rate Mismatches (Away Offense vs. Home Defense)
- Arizona Offense vs. Colorado Defense
- New Mexico State Offense vs. Western Kentucky Defense
- Ohio State Defense vs. Michigan State Offense
Finishing Drives
What is Finishing Drives?
Finishing Drives is calculated as points per opportunity when the offense passes the opponent’s 40-yard line.
Defensively, this is how many Points per Opportunity a defense allows when the opposing offense crosses the 40-yard line.
Home Team Offensive Finishing Drives vs. Away Team Defensive Finishing Drives
Top 3 Finishing Drives Mismatches (Home Offense vs. Away Defense)
- Oregon State Offense vs. Stanford Defense
- Troy Defense vs. ULM Offense
- SMU Offense vs. North Texas Defense
Away Team Offensive Finishing Drives vs. Home Team Defensive Finishing Drives
Top 3 Finishing Drives Mismatches (Away Offense vs. Home Defense)
- Kansas State Defense vs. Baylor Offense
- Ohio State Defense vs. Michigan State Offense
- Florida Offense vs. LSU Defense
College Football Week 11 Betting Takeaways
Matchup Analysis
I know this article seems boring since it probably seems like we constantly take Group of Five unders. However, I am here to tell you: not this week!
This week, we have our eyes not only on a Power 5 matchup, but a Power 5 over (save your applause for the end).
I bet you wouldn't know that LSU and Florida are entering this game with very similar trajectories, and yet, only one school has garnered national respect.
And I understand why.
LSU has just been flashier recently: hiring Brian Kelly, having a Heisman hopeful at quarterback and scoring 45 points a game to rank third in the country.
However, don't sleep on Billy Napier and this Gators team. While they're 5-4 compared to LSU mark of 6-3, Florida has been much more of a grind-it-out team. It also has a transfer quarterback in Graham Mertz, who's posting his best PFF grade (77) since his true freshman year at Wisconsin.
He's not a Heisman hopefulm but he has been more than serviceable during a transition time for this program.
The Florida offense is certainly not going to set the world on fire, but ranking top-40 in Offensive Success Rate and top-20 in Offensive Finishing Drives means that this Gators team is relatively efficient.
Overall, I think LSU will put up a ton of points, but I expect Florida to move the ball and score touchdowns instead of field goals when given the opportunity. Give me the over here.
Pick: Florida vs. LSU Over 63.5
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