Before we move on to Week 12, I'm betting on four more games for the Saturday night slate.
Read on for my Week 11 college football picks.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | Wake Forest +7 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | LSU +10.5 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Kentucky +3.5 |
  | 9 p.m. | UCLA -2.5 |
Wake Forest +7 at Virginia
7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
For starters, on the season, Wake has played the slightly more difficult schedule and has a superior net yards per play mark (+0.5 to +0.4). Why? It's the defense, which ranks among the top 10 when adjusted for opponent.
Last week, the Demon Deacons had a disappointing effort in Tallahassee, but I think a lot of that had to do with a poor matchup and a tough situational spot, where I happily faded them.
I'm happy to buy low here at a touchdown or better against a completely fraudulent Virginia team that somehow has eight wins on the season, but in reality, should have the same number as Wake (5).
The Hoos' first three wins of the season came against Stanford, William & Mary, and a brand-new Coastal Carolina club. Take a look at their past five victories since taking on real competition:
- Louisville by 3 in OT thanks to two defensive touchdowns (outgained, 383-237)
- Florida State in double overtime (outgained, 514-440)
- North Carolina by 1 in OT (outgained, 353-259)
- Washington State by 2 on a last-second safety (outgained, 318-301)
- Cal by 10 (last-second pick-six to win by margin and cover)
They could easily have gone 1-4 in that stretch with four of the five games going to overtime despite a +8 turnover margin. They deserved the Cal win, but should have only won by a field goal.
Despite sitting all alone in first place in the ACC, I don't even have Virginia power-rated as a top-50 team in the country.
While the Wake Forest offense is nothing to write home about, it should have some success running the ball on early downs this week, which is paramount for it to have any shot at sustaining drives.
The red-zone offense is downright dreadful, which is definitely a concern, but the Hoos have been very vulnerable in short-yardage and goal-line situations on defense.
They also struggle to contain opposing mobile quarterbacks, which could be an issue in this matchup.
Wake has a terribly inefficient passing attack that will make you want to pull your hair out while watching, but it can hit explosives (top-10 in that department), which is an area where teams can exploit Virginia's defense.
Most importantly, UVA just hasn't proven it can get a margin on any team with even a faint pulse.
With Duke on deck in a game that will likely determine who goes to the ACC Championship, it's also possible the Hoos come into this one with a bit of a lack of focus to boot.
Regardless, the offense has been solved for the most part, and the defense isn't anything special.
Wake will have the best unit on the field with its defense. I just don't see much separating these teams outside of their records, so I'm happy to take a touchdown on the road against a Virginia team traveling back across the country.
Pick: Wake Forest +7 or Better
| | |  |
LSU +10.5 at Alabama
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
This is a smaller play here, as it looks like star LSU linebacker Whit Weeks won't suit up even after the bye week.
That's a big loss, but I still think this line is a bit too high, so I'm happy to buy low on the Tigers, who should benefit from the temporary interim coach bump we usually see for one week.
Don't be shocked if we even see some packages for backup quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. in addition to some other new wrinkles that Alabama won't have on film.
I also think there could be some renewed energy in the locker room, as I get the sense Brian Kelly wasn't the most likable head coach among the players.
Additionally, the Alabama defense isn't generating elite pressure. Similar to Georgia, this isn't your older brother's Alabama front seven.
That will provide a lot of relief for a struggling LSU offensive line, which usually causes its downfall against SEC competition.
The Tigers may also find some semblance of balance with something on the ground against a Tide defense that ranks outside the top 100 in yards allowed before contact. I like this for many of the same reasons I fancied South Carolina to keep it close.
LSU still has an elite defense that won't have to worry too much about Alabama's ground game. That will allow it to pin its ears back on passing downs, where it should generate plenty of pressure against Ty Simpson, who will take his fair share of sacks.
Ultimately, you should get LSU's best effort here in what now becomes its Super Bowl.
I also just think this Alabama team is a bit overrated. Yes, it won four straight against ranked opponents, but the Tide also got blown out at Florida State and arguably should have lost at South Carolina.
Even against Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee, it's not like they completely dominated on the field, also benefiting from a +9 turnover margin.
I believe a much fairer price for this game would be around Alabama -8.5, so I was happy to take double digits with the road 'dog under a new regime.
Pick: LSU +10.5 or Better
| | | |
Kentucky +3.5 vs. Florida
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network
Will Florida show up here after an all-out effort against Georgia that saw the Gators come up just short?
I'm not sure we'll get a fully focused effort from the Gators, who unloaded the clip in a rivalry game last week with games against Ole Miss, Florida State, and Tennessee on deck. Talk about a potentially sleepy spot.
Additionally, Florida will lose the temporary bump from a new coach, which typically lasts only one week. All the latest wrinkles it showed are now on tape as well.
Plus, it's not like DJ Lagway looked great coming out of the bye with some of the offensive changes. I was expecting a much sharper effort. It may just be a lost season for the talented Lagway.
It's also worth noting that Florida will arrive in Lexington with a shorthanded roster.
I thought wide receiver Eugene Wilson III (who was all the rage during the bye) benefited the most from the new-look offense. He finished with over 100 receiving yards, but he will miss this game due to injury.
The same is true for stud five-star freshman wideout Dallas Wilson.
With the statuses of Aidan Mizell and Vernell Brown III also in doubt, the Gators could be decimated entirely on the outside, which will make life much easier for a Kentucky defense that's much stronger against the run (top-20 adjusted run defense among all P4 teams).
Kentucky's offense also has more juice since making a quarterback change to Cutter Boley, who has looked better following the bye week.
Boley won't have to worry about much pressure against Florida (118th in pressure rate), and the entire offense is predicated on generating yards after the catch, which is the exact way teams want to attack this very stingy Florida defense.
The 'Cats have been playing with a lot of confidence over the past month. They should have beaten Texas at home and just pulled off an upset on the road against Auburn.
I'm not worried about their care level at home against a rival. Ultimately, adjusting for the spot and injuries, I don't think this line should be over a field goal.
Trending: Before last year's loss in Gainesville, Kentucky had covered seven straight in this rivalry. In other words, I don't really have a nice trend worth highlighting here.
Pick: Kentucky +3.5 or Better
| | | |
UCLA -2.5 vs. Nebraska
9 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
This is one of the best situational spots on the board for several reasons. Let's start with why it's a tough spot for Nebraska.
The Huskers have to travel a couple of time zones west after a devastating loss to USC that ended their College Football Playoff hopes.
They also lost starting quarterback Dylan Raiola to a long-term injury, forcing freshman TJ Lateef into his first-ever start.
Based on what I saw last week, it's a steep drop-off to the tune of maybe a touchdown or more, especially with some of the injury issues Nebraska is also dealing with at offensive tackle.
Without having to worry about Nebraska throwing as much, UCLA can load the box to help out its run defense, which will put all of the onus on the freshman, who I'll make prove he can find enough success to pull out a road win in his first start.
On the UCLA side, the Bruins will benefit from coming off a bye, which I believe carries more weight with a brand-new staff that took over after a disastrous start to the season.
I expect even more wrinkles after defenses adjust to some of the original changes they implemented with great success in their first few games.
Keep in mind this is also Nebraska's sixth game in six weeks.
Plus, UCLA should find success on the ground against a shaky Nebraska run defense that ranks in the bottom five among all P4 teams after adjusting for opponent. On the season, the Huskers rank outside the top 100 in both yards before and after contact.
They also don't generate much pressure and really struggle to contain mobile quarterbacks, which means Nico Iamaleava's legs could be a significant factor in keeping the chains moving.
Even with Raiola at the controls, it's not like Nebraska has traveled well this season. The Huskers have played only two true road games, including a blowout loss at Minnesota and a three-point comeback victory over Maryland.
I like UCLA at anything under a field goal.
Pick: UCLA -2.5 or Better
| | | |
