Week 12 College Football Analytics Betting Preview: Value on East Carolina vs. Navy (November 18)
Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: A Navy flag.
It's always nice to have an easy win following a loss, and that's exactly what happened last week in the Florida-LSU game.
Despite an over/under up at 63.5, the Gators and Tigers easily surpassed that for a 52-35 final. That's 87 points for those keeping score at home.
However, we can't rest on our laurels. Instead, we have to look forward to Week 12 and find any edge we can. Let's dive into some advanced metrics!
This breakdown looks at three metrics that have proven to be relevant to covering the spread:
If you're interested in why these metrics have been chosen, check out this piece by Collin Wilson. To quote his findings:
“Data from the past five years indicates defensive Success Rate, Havoc and Finishing Drives are the biggest indicators in beating oddsmakers this college football season.”
Let’s dive in and see where we can find an edge in Week 12.
Havoc
What is Havoc?
Havoc is a college football term defined as a play where there’s an unexpected outcome. Pass breakups, forced fumbles and tackles for loss are just a few of the plays that cause chaos on any given Saturday. Collectively, these plays are used to build an identity for a team.
The calculation for Havoc is simply a cumulative number of tackles for loss, interceptions, fumbles and passes defensed divided by the number of plays on both sides of the ball.
Let's see where we can find some big Havoc discrepancies in Week 11:
Home Team Havoc Allowed vs. Away Team Havoc Rate
Top 3 Havoc Mismatches (Home Offense vs. Away Defense)
- Air Force Offense vs. UNLV Defense
- Syracuse Defense vs. Georgia Tech Offense
- Tulane Defense vs. FAU Offense
Away Team Havoc Allowed vs. Home Team Havoc Rate
Top 3 Havoc Mismatches (Away Offense vs. Home Defense)
- Georgia Southern Defense vs. Old Dominion Offense
- Oklahoma State Offense vs. Houston Defense
- Notre Dame Defense vs. Wake Forest Offense
Success Rate
What is Success Rate?
Success Rate is an advanced metric in football that measures efficiency but with the important context of down and distance considered.
A play is defined as successful if:
- It gains at least 50% of the yards required to move the chains on first down
- 70% of yards to gain on second down
- 100% of yards to gain on third or fourth down
To calculate Success Rate, simply divide the number of successful plays (as defined by down and distance above) by total plays.
This definition is taken from our article on Success Rate.
Home Team Offensive Success Rate vs. Away Team Defensive Success Rate
Top 3 Success Rate Mismatches (Home Offense vs. Away Defense)
- Liberty Offense vs. UMass Defense
- ECU Defense vs. Navy Offense
- Oregon State Offense vs. Washington Defense
Away Team Offensive Success Rate vs. Home Team Defensive Success Rate
Top 3 Success Rate Mismatches (Away Offense vs. Home Defense)
- Oregon Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
- Kansas State Offense vs. Kansas Defense
- Boise State Offense vs. Utah State Defense
Finishing Drives
What is Finishing Drives?
Finishing Drives is calculated as points per opportunity when the offense passes the opponent’s 40-yard line.
Defensively, this is how many Points per Opportunity a defense allows when the opposing offense crosses the 40-yard line.
Home Team Offensive Finishing Drives vs. Away Team Defensive Finishing Drives
Top 3 Finishing Drives Mismatches (Home Offense vs. Away Defense)
- ECU Defense vs. Navy Offense
- Ohio State Offense vs. Minnesota Defense
- Northwestern Offense vs. Purdue Defense
Away Team Offensive Finishing Drives vs. Home Team Defensive Finishing Drives
Top 3 Finishing Drives Mismatches (Away Offense vs. Home Defense)
- Navy Defense vs. ECU Offense
- South Alabama Defense vs. Marshall Offense
- Notre Dame Defense vs. Wake Forest Offense
College Football Week 12 Betting Takeaways
Matchup Analysis
After a week in which we took an SEC over, we're back on our Group of Five under grind.
I'm sorry to Pirates fans everywhere, but East Carolina is becoming an auto-under bet for me. They have an extremely interesting combination of wildly inept offense and borderline elite defense.
If they could control the explosive plays, they would be fully elite and not borderline.
Top-10 ratings in Success Rate Allowed, Havoc and Points per Opportunity Allowed bolster this defense's reputation. And against Navy, it doesn't have to worry much about explosive plays.
On the other side of the ball, this Navy offense has been almost as inept as ECU's. The one thing it has going for it is a strong Havoc Allowed ranking, but that's to be expected when running the triple option.
The Midshipmen rank 120th in Success Rate, 105th in Points per Opportunity and 118th in explosiveness.
This one may put you to sleep, but if you bet the under, at least you'll sleep well!
Pick: ECU vs. Navy Under 30.5
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