You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided a couple of years ago that we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers. To keep the chalk talk rolling this week, we're two home favorites — one in a Big Ten battle and one in a Mountain West matchup.
Let's dive into our Week 5 college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Rutgers vs. Minnesota and Hawaii vs. Air Force on Saturday, Sept. 27.
Week 5 College Football Predictions, Picks
Stuckey: Minnesota -5 vs. Rutgers
| Rutgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 51 -110o / -110u | +170 |
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 51 -110o / -110u | -205 |
The Rutgers defense has been a mess this season. The Scarlet Knights are dealing with a pile of injuries, and they just can’t get stops. It’s been that bad.
Meanwhile, Minnesota comes in fresh off a bye week, which is a big deal — especially for a true freshman quarterback navigating a pretty complicated offense. And Drake Lindsey has shown some promise under center.
The Gophers should be healthier in the backfield and all over the roster, unlike Rutgers, which is still nursing injuries.
There’s definitely some extra motivation here, too. Last year, things got heated between these two, with Minnesota facing off against its old coordinator and former quarterback. That kind of matchup tends to bring out the juice.
Sure, Rutgers can move the ball offensively, but Minnesota’s defense has that feisty edge. It'll make enough plays to keep the Scarlet Knights in check.
Remember, Rutgers hasn’t been able to stop anyone lately. Just look at what Iowa did last week when it put up nearly 40 points on this defense.
I'll take Minnesota at home, coming off that extra week of rest.
Collin Wilson: Air Force -6.5 vs. Hawaii
| Hawaii Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +205 |
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
I like Air Force a lot here.
This will be Hawaii’s sixth game this season after it played in Week 0.
Head coach Timmy Chang came into this year with two wins playing off the island, but now the Warriors sit at 2-16 after getting steamrolled by Arizona, 40-6.
Air Force brings a very different look with its power outside zone runs and fullback dives. Hawaii hasn’t really seen anything like that yet.
The Falcons rank top-10 in Stuff Rate allowed, while Hawaii’s Defensive Stuff Rate comes in around 72nd. That’s a big mismatch, and you should expect Air Force to dominate in the trenches.
On top of that, Hawaii is likely feeling the wear and tear of a sixth game. The altitude won’t help either. Playing up there is rough, and Air Force is accustomed to it.
The Falcons also rank second nationally in Finishing Drives, which makes them dangerous in crunch time.
If you’re not sold on Air Force against the spread, consider putting it in a parlay. This feels like a perfect setup for the Falcons to roll.
