Welcome to our weekly Havoc Rankings, where the volatility of offenses and defenses is graded for potential wagering.
Havoc is the collection of stats that can derail offensive momentum on the defensive side of the ball. The summation includes tackles for loss, pass breakups, forced fumbles, interceptions and sacks.
Havoc allowed, meanwhile, is a stat used to quantify an offense's ability to avoid chaos that creates a negative play. Offenses that are elite in Havoc allowed have a low number of fumbles, interceptions and tackles for loss.
Let's take a look at our Week 8 college football picks for UTSA vs. North Texas and Week 8 Havoc Rankings for the upcoming week.
College Football Pick, Havoc Rankings for Week 8
UTSA vs North Texas Odds, Pick
| UTSA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 68.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 68.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
Defensive Havoc: UTSA 13th · North Texas 117th
Havoc Allowed: UTSA 97th · North Texas 33rd
There's a good reason to ignore the final score of the UTSA-Rice game from Week 7.
The Roadrunners boat-raced the Owls in San Antonio, 61-13, thanks to four forced fumbles and 17 tackles for loss.
Rice had injury problems under center, as starter Chase Jenkins attempted three passes before hitting the medical tent. The Owls would field three other quarterbacks due to a mix of injury and inefficiency.
The main takeaway for UTSA was the number of Havoc plays on defense, vaulting the Roadrunners to 13th nationally.
North Texas experienced much of the same as Rice in a blowout loss to South Florida.
Quarterback Drew Mestemaker posted three interceptions on top of five quarterback hurries. The Mean Green rank top-35 in quality drives but were limited to just a single methodical drive of 10 plays in 14 possessions against the Bulls.
There's smoke in the numbers for North Texas, which ranks 121st in overall strength of schedule.
The difference in this game is Defensive Havoc, as North Texas has been inept at causing chaos. The Mean Green sit 117th in Havoc, ranking outside the top 100 in passes defensed.
The biggest advantage in this game is UTSA's rushing attack against the North Texas defense.
The Roadrunners call inside zone more than any other concept, ranking second nationally in Rush EPA. The Mean Green have been poor against inside zone, averaging a 42% Success Rate while sitting outside the top 100 in limiting Rush EPA.
Pick: UTSA +4.5
