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Western Michigan-Ball State Betting Preview: Beware of Fading the Public

Nov 13, 2018 10:30 AM EST

Western Michigan at Ball State Betting Odds

  • Spread: Western Michigan -7.5
  • Over/Under: 54.5
  • Time: 6 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN2

>> All odds as of 9 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets


By John Ewing

Here at The Action Network, we like to go against the grain and back the teams that no one wants to back. But for whatever reason, that hasn’t been a successful strategy when betting #MACtion games.

According to our Bet Labs data, MAC teams during weekday games getting fewer than 40% of bets have gone 67-91-5 (42.4%) against the spread since 2005. Only 26% of spread tickets are it’currently on Ball State.

Should you ride with the public, or are you brave enough to back Ball State?

Market Moves for Ball State-Western Michigan

This line opened Western Michigan -7.5 and has pretty much stayed there despite such a heavy public backing on the Broncos. Some books are offering a juiced Ball State +7.5, which means it’s more likely to move to +7 as of now.

Despite 80% of over/under bets hitting the over, the total has dropped from 56.5 to 56.

No Home-Field Advantage

By Steve Petrella

Ball State has the sixth-worst home-field advantage, according to our metrics. Our Collin Wilson gives the Cardinals just 1.09 points for being at home, way off the standard 3-4 that’s usually given for a home team in college football.

Why? Ball State is 32-43 against the spread at home since 2005. In the last five seasons, it’s 8-20 ATS.

WMU Hurting Without Wassink

By Steve Petrella

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
59
-4
58.5
-3.5
64.5
-11
66.5
-8
52
-3
52
-4
48
PK
47.5
+1
50.5
-7.5
50.5
-7
-2.5
44
-2.5
43.5
55
-4.5
54
-3
-3
54.5
-2.5
55.5
-6
66.5
-5.5
68.5
48
-11
48.5
-12
-2.5
73
-5.5
74
67.5
-5
67
-3
-3
53.5
-2.5
52.5
-1.5
57.5
-1
60
55
-3.5
55
-3
61
-3.5
60.5
-3.5
41
-2
40.5
PK
56.5
-3
54.5
-3.5
-3
47
-4
47
-6.5
55
-3.5
55.5
54.5
-5
54.5
-3.5
-7
74
-1.5
68.5
54.5
-6.5
54.5
-3.5
50.5
-6
50.5
-7.5
-6.5
55
-4
54.5
-2
58.5
-1.5
60.5
56
-11
55
-12
79
-13.5
81.5
-14
-6.5
53.5
-5
53.5
-6.5
52
-6.5
52
48
-1.5
48
-3
-10
71
-8
74
45
-6.5
46.5
-7
58.5
-4.5
58.5
-4.5
-5
44.5
-7
44.5
-8
54.5
-7.5
55.5
48
-4
47.5
-6.5
58.5
-5
58
-6.5
58
-10.5
58
-11.5

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