Wilson: My Projected Odds for Week 13 College Football Games

Wilson: My Projected Odds for Week 13 College Football Games article feature image

Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jarrett Smith

  • Collin Wilson uses his college football power ratings to project lines for Week 13 games.
  • Use his odds to find early betting value when books open lines on Sunday.

While Waco and Auburn took center stage in the College Football Playoff landscape on Saturday, an injury in Starkville may have the biggest impact on Tuesday’s rankings.

Tua Tagovailoa remained in the Alabama-Mississippi State game up 35-7 in the second quarter before a Bulldogs sack changed the national outlook. Tagovailoa screamed in pain as he exited the game with a dislocated hip with a posterior wall fracture.

The junior quarterback, Heisman hopeful and 2017-18 national champion will not return this season.

So who stands to benefit the most?

Oklahoma came back to win from 28-3 down, as Baylor scored no points in the second half. The Sooners are expected to make a leap in the rankings with Minnesota taking a loss.

Georgia survived a late Auburn surge, while Utah staked its claim as a national title contender in a blowout of UCLA.

As for projected College Football Playoff spreads, our new Action Network power ratings have been adjusted and would expect to see these numbers posted:

  • Clemson -1 v Ohio State
  • Clemson -5 v LSU
  • Clemson -9.5 v Georgia
  • Ohio State -4 v LSU
  • Ohio State -8.5 v Georgia
  • LSU -4.5 v Georgia

But before we get to that, Week 13 is up. And we are projecting every point spread below in anticipation of Sunday opening lines.

Look here to identity early betting value when opening lines are released on Sunday and follow me in The Action Network App to see when I bet those lines.

Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Projected College Football Odds, Week 13

A negative number indicates the home team is favored by that many points; a positive number indicates the home team is an underdog.

Week 13 Scheduling Notes

  • Charlotte, Nevada, Illinois, Arkansas, Maryland, Old Dominion, Tennessee, SMU, Boston College, North Texas, Western Kentucky, Central Florida, Tulsa, San Jose State, Florida Atlantic and Purdue are all off a bye week.
  • Washington-Colorado, Miami-FIU, East Carolina-UConn  and Liberty-Virginia will each face each other off a bye week.
  • Eastern Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Syracuse, UTEP, Minnesota, TCU, Michigan State, Memphis, Louisiana Tech, Troy and Coastal Carolina will be on back-to-back travel.

Week 12 Injury Notes

  • Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffered a dislocated and fractured right hip and will miss the remainder of the season

Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa goes down hard, visibly in pain and is being helped off the field@AlabamaFTBL | #RollTide pic.twitter.com/vySHyVBufY

— Collin Wilson (@_Collin1) November 16, 2019

Tagovailoa’s injury will put quarterback Mac Jones under center for the season’s final games. The College Football Playoff committee may take this under consideration when rankings are released

Hopefully Tua is OK, but if this is a season-ending injury, @CFBPlayoff selection committee would downgrade Bama because of it when doing final rankings. This obviously would impact Bama's chances to finish in top four

— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) November 16, 2019

  • Alabama wide receiver Henry Ruggs III exited the same game due to bruised ribs.
  • Clemson wide receiver Justyn Ross left with a rib injury.
  • Florida State running back Cam Akers missed FSU’s win over Alcorn State because of an unspecified injury.
  • Georgia wide receiver Lawrence Cager was lifted from his team’s win over Auburn with an upper-body injury.

INJURY UPDATE: The good news for #Georgia was that Brian Herrien came back in the game after a dangerous horse-collar tackle, but WR Lawrence Cager and two offensive linemen couldn't finish: https://t.co/APzd6dhj9M pic.twitter.com/DYpwPSWO52

— DawgNation (@DawgNation) November 17, 2019

  • Indiana wide receiver Whop Philyor exited the last game with an undefined injury.
  • Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan left Saturday’s game to be evaluated for a possible concussion.
  • Oklahoma wide receiver CeeDee Lamb missed the Baylor game for undisclosed reasons, and it has yet to be established if he will play against TCU on Nov. 23.
  • Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders exited Saturday’s game with a hand injury.

Mike Gundy says they took Spencer Sanders out of the game just as a precaution with his hand injury. #OKState

— Dylan Buckingham (@DylanBuckingham) November 16, 2019

  • Penn State wide receiver KJ Hamler left the last game with an unspecified injury.
  • Stanford quarterback KJ Costello missed the last game with an unspecified injury.

Week 13 Situational Spots to Play

  • Minnesota does not have to beat Northwestern to play in the Big Ten Championship. Assuming Wisconsin wins over Purdue, the Gophers can still win the West with a loss to the Wildcats and a win over the Badgers.
  • Miami of Ohio has tiebreakers over Ohio, Kent State and Buffalo. The Redhawks can lose to Akron and Ball State while still representing the MAC East in the championship game.
  • Michigan defeated its in-state rival Michigan State. The Wolverines may overlook Indiana in anticipation of hosting Ohio State in Week 14.
  • The famous Tin Horn Weekend comes for Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi State, North Carolina and Vanderbilt. Of the FCS opponents, only UT Martin has a winning record and was just knocked out of the playoff race by Austin Peay.
  • Teams aiming to reach bowl eligibility against teams that cannot make a bowl include NC State (Georgia Tech), Michigan State (Rutgers), North Texas (Rice), and Nebraska (Maryland),

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