The Iowa State Cyclones take on the Iowa Hawkeyes in Iowa City, Iowa. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC/Peacock.
Iowa is favored by -13.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -633. The total is set at 40.5 points.
Here’s my Iowa State vs. Iowa prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 12, 2026.
Iowa State vs Iowa Prediction
- Iowa State vs. Iowa Pick: Under 41.5 (Play to 40)
My Iowa vs. Iowa State best bet is on the under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Iowa State vs Iowa Odds
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -103 | 40.5 -122o / +100u | +460 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -117 | 40.5 -122o / +100u | -633 |
- Iowa State vs Iowa point spread: Iowa -13.5 (-117), Iowa State +13.5 (-103)
- Iowa State vs Iowa over/under: 40.5 (-122o / +100u)
- Iowa State vs Iowa moneyline: Iowa State +460, Iowa -633
Iowa State vs Iowa College Football Preview
Iowa State Cyclones Betting Preview: Beyond the Score
Iowa State opened the Jimmy Rogers era with a convincing 38-10 win over Southeast Missouri State, but the final score was a bit misleading.
The Cyclones generated only 301 yards on 49 offensive plays and rushed for just 108 yards on 3.5 yards per carry.
Jaylen Raynor provided the explosives through the air, throwing for 184 yards and two touchdowns, but he completed just eight of his 16 attempts.
Now that offense has to step up in class against Iowa.
The Hawkeyes held Northern Illinois to 120 total yards, seven rushing yards and seven first downs last week. NIU didn't record its first first down until late in the third quarter.
Iowa finished seventh nationally in Adjusted EPA per Play defensively and 12th in EPA against the pass last season. Yes, this is a new unit with some questions, but the Cyclones' offense isn’t exactly a juggernaut.
That's a tough assignment for Raynor in his first Cy-Hawk game, especially at Kinnick. Raynor is a far worse QB than Rocco Becht, and even he struggled to move the ball in last year’s clash.
The injury report doesn't help Iowa State, either. Running back Aiden Flora is questionable after leaving last week's game, while wide receiver Jordyn Bailey remains out.
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Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Preview: Wait on the Revival
Iowa's offense looked like a wagon last week. The Hawkeyes scored on six of their first eight possessions, but somehow the total stayed under 44.5.
The Hawkeyes rolled up 507 yards and 40 points against Northern Illinois, with Kamari Moulton exploding for 183 yards and two touchdowns on just 11 carries.
However, this was about as favorable of a matchup as Iowa will see all season.
NIU entered the year with zero returning starters on defense after going 3-9 last season. The Huskies were undergoing a complete roster overhaul and were projected to field one of the weaker defenses in the FBS.
Iowa State is a completely different test.
There's also still a quarterback question in Iowa City. Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski remain listed together on the depth chart after splitting reps last week.
Brown finished 12-of-20 for 129 yards, while Hecklinski went 7-of-16 for 76 yards with an interception.
That's only 5.5 yards per pass attempt combined despite playing one of the weakest defenses on the schedule.
The ground game was explosive, but Iowa's passing efficiency didn't exactly scream offensive renaissance.
Iowa will also be without running back L.J. Phillips Jr., who's been ruled out with an ankle injury.
Iowa State vs Iowa Pick, Betting Analysis
If there's ever a spot to sell a Week 1 box score, this is it.
Both teams scored at least 38 points last week, yet Iowa State produced only 301 yards against an FCS opponent, while Iowa's offensive explosion came against a completely rebuilt NIU defense.
The last four Cy-Hawk meetings have finished with 29, 39, 33 and 17 combined points. Last year's game featured just 452 total yards in Iowa State's 16-13 win.
That's not exactly appointment television for Over bettors.
SP+ ranks Iowa's defense 16.8 nationally while projecting its offense at 30.8, and I'm much more willing to trust the defensive side of that equation against a legitimate opponent.
Iowa should lean on Moulton, play field position and force Raynor to consistently drive the length of the field against this defense.
That's exactly the type of rock fight I'm looking for. Give me another ugly Cy-Hawk game.
Pick: Under 41.5 (Play to 40)
