The Texas Tech Red Raiders take on the Oregon State Beavers in Corvallis, Oregon, on Saturday, Sept. 12. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+.
Texas Tech is favored by -26.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -4000. Oregon State, meanwhile, enters as a +26.5 underdog and is +1600 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 53.5 total points.
Here’s my Texas Tech vs. Oregon State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 12.
Texas Tech vs Oregon State Prediction
- Texas Tech vs. Oregon State Pick: Over 53.5
My Oregon State vs. Texas Tech best bet is on the over. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page, and be sure to download the Action Network app for more content and expert picks.
Texas Tech vs Oregon State Odds
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-26.5 -110 | 53.5 -115o / -105u | -4000 |
| Oregon St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+26.5 -110 | 53.5 -115o / -105u | +1600 |
- Texas Tech vs Oregon State point spread: Texas Tech -26.5 (-110), Oregon State +26.5 (-110)
- Texas Tech vs Oregon State over/under: 53.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Texas Tech vs Oregon State moneyline: Texas Tech -4000, Oregon State +1600
Texas Tech vs Oregon State College Football Preview
Texas Tech Red Raiders Betting Preview
For a team that possesses all the talent needed to win the Big 12 and make a run to the National Championship, Texas Tech looked flat in its season opener against Abilene Christian.
While it’s tough to put too much stock in a matchup against an FCS opponent, the Red Raiders' metrics on offense were alarming, ranking outside the top 80 in Finishing Drives and Explosiveness.
Their inability to take care of the ball made it tough for their offense to get into a groove, stumbling down to 65th in Havoc allowed.
Even though it resulted in just one interception, the Red Raiders' lackadaisical offense flirted with danger, which could potentially become a thorn in their side in the future when matched up against a defense that creates disruptions at a high rate.
Speaking of defense, Texas Tech carried over its success from last season, jumping up to the top of the board in Success Rate allowed, Defensive Finishing Drives, Havoc and Passing EPA.
It's worth noting that its inability to bottle up the Wildcats' running backs in the trenches was head-scratching, giving up explosive plays at a stunning rate.
With that said, take the Red Raiders' performance with a grain of salt. A conservative game plan and a lack of motivation on defense can swing results, making their performance look far worse than what it really was.
Expect the Red Raiders offense to round back into form against Oregon State, giving their defense the production they need to be a well-rounded contender.
Oregon State Beavers Betting Preview
While we can brush aside the Red Raiders' performance against an FCS opponent, we have far more conviction in Oregon State, which is fresh off a loss to Houston.
Its defense was unable to get the Cougars off the field, giving up 533 yards while hovering near the bottom half of the board in Success Rate allowed and Defensive Finishing Drives.
Houston quarterback Conner Weigman had no issue picking apart the Beavers' secondary, throwing for 305 yards while completing 67% of his passes.
Houston’s stable of running backs also consistently gashed Oregon State’s front seven, with Makhi Hughes and Re’Shaun Sanford II both averaging more than five yards per carry.
On the other side of the ball, the Beavers' lack of continuity was apparent from the jump, ranking near dead last in Passing Down EPA and Rushing Success Rate.
With neither facet of the offense clicking, the Beavers were incapable of keeping their drives alive, making it nearly impossible to match the Cougars' output.
Their offense at least created explosive plays at a competitive rate, which could be the edge they need to keep it close against Texas Tech.
After flipping the field position by rattling off a big gain, capitalizing on scoring opportunities is vital if the Beavers want a puncher's chance at upsetting the Red Raiders, desperately needing to mask a defense that's incapable of keeping opponents out of the end zone.
Texas Tech vs Oregon State Pick, Betting Analysis
With talent littered all over, positive regression is looming large over the Red Raiders offense in their Week 2 matchup against Oregon State. They can take advantage of a defense that struggles to hold opponents in front of the sticks.
By consistently cutting the distance to gain in half, quarterback Will Hammond’s probability of converting improves, keeping drives alive while marching into scoring position.
Once behind on the scoreboard, Oregon State will be more aggressive in its efforts to move the ball down the field in a desperate attempt to keep it close. This will lead to an uptick in explosive plays, applying pressure to a Red Raiders defense that has struggled to hold opponents to minimal gains.
With both offenses in a favorable position to move past each other’s 40, expect points to be put up on the board at a consistent rate, clearing the over in the process.
Bet the over to 55 and sprinkle a smaller wager on the Beavers to cover the spread should they steam up to the key number of 28.
Pick: Over 53.5 (Play to 55)
Texas Tech vs Oregon State Betting Trends
