The Ohio State Buckeyes take on the Texas Longhorns in Austin, Texas, on Saturday, Sept. 12. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Texas is favored by -1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -120. Ohio State, meanwhile, enters as a +1.5 underdog on the road and is +100 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 48.5 total points.
Here’s my Ohio State vs. Texas prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 12.
Ohio State vs Texas Prediction
- Ohio State vs. Texas Pick: Texas ML -125 or Better
My Texas vs. Ohio State best bet is on the Longhorns to win this game outright. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Ohio State vs Texas Odds
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
- Ohio State vs Texas Spread: Texas -1.5 (-110), Ohio State +1.5 (-110)
- Ohio State vs Texas Over/Under: 49.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Ohio State vs Texas Moneyline: Ohio State +100, Texas -120
Ohio State vs Texas College Football Preview
Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Preview: Clicking on All Cylinders
Ohio State lived up to expectations in a Week 1 rout of Ball State.
The Buckeyes accumulated nearly 700 yards of offense, averaging 9.3 yards per play. There was hardly a weakness in the offense, with a 69% Success Rate in standard downs, led by the running back duo of Ja'Kobi Jackson and Bo Jackson.
Both Jacksons ended with 83 yards and a touchdown, but quarterback Julian Sayin and the receiving unit were elite.
Fifteen different players received a target from Sayin, none more than Heisman candidate Jeremiah Smith. The future NFL wide receiver caught eight passes for 151 yards and a pair of scores.
Any questions about the hiring of Arthur Smith as offensive coordinator and his commitment to the run game were washed away with the Buckeyes' Week 1 passing attack.
The defense was also outstanding on all fronts, ranking up seven tackles for loss while holding the Cardinals to two yards per carry.
Cornerback Jay Timmons led in coverage with two pass breakups, while EDGE Kenyatta Jackson Jr. was a one-man Havoc crew with seven pressures in 26 pass-rush snaps.
Texas Longhorns Betting Preview: Havoc Machines
Texas annihilated a Texas State roster that was expected to compete for the Pac-12 Championship this season.
The Bobcats offense has long been known for explosives under head coach G.J. Kinne, but the newly-led Longhorn defenders were up for the task as well.
Defensive coordinator Will Muschamp surrendered a single score to Texas State, limiting the Bobs to less than five yards per play.
Texas State did generate the national average in available yards, but possessions that crossed the Longhorns' 40-yard line were fruitless.
Texas proved to be a Havoc machine, picking off Texas State once while scooping two of the Bobcats' three fumbles. Eleven different Longhorn defenders were also credited with a tackle for loss.
Texas finished top-30 in Havoc a season ago, leaving the one area for improvement to be Finishing Drives. The Longhorns allowed just one score in four Texas State drives that crossed Texas' 40-yard line.
On the other side of the ball, quarterback Arch Manning nearly completed a clean sheet with three big-time throws and four touchdowns while distributing the ball to 12 different targets.
Auburn transfer wide receiver Cam Coleman continues to steal the headlines, generating two touchdowns on just three receptions. Ryan Wingo was the workhorse of the day with seven catches and 121 yards.
Texas experienced a large dip in offensive Success Rate last season, but the new running back stable of Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown produced over 100 yards and two touchdowns.
Outside of a Manning interception in the end zone, the Longhorns had no issues putting points on the board in eight other offensive possessions.
Ohio State vs Texas Pick, Betting Analysis
There are no discernible weaknesses on either roster, as both Ohio State and Texas return quarterbacks from last season's showdown.
Both offenses have weapons on the outside that will dominate cornerbacks in the NFL in Smith and Coleman.
PFF grading differs from each Week 1 blowout, as the Buckeyes were better in run blocking and creating a pass rush. However, the Longhorns had much better scores in run defense and tackling to go along with a score of fifth nationally in pass blocking.
Texas dominated on the ground in Columbus a season ago. Smothers and Brown should give the Longhorns better options compared to Quintrevion Wisner and CJ Baxter in 2025.
Smothers has a career yards-after-first-contact number above four yards, producing 50 yards after contact on 10 carries against Texas State last week. Brown, meanwhile, tallied 55 missed tackles forced at Arizona State, something that needs to be in play against the Buckeyes.
Ohio State had a much slower afternoon in getting the running game going, as Bo Jackson exceeded five yards on a carry just once in the first half. Ja'Kobi Jackson also failed to create a rush over five yards in the first half against Ball State.
The numbers look different for Ohio State when taking out the biggest explosive play from each of the Jackson backs. Without the longest explosive rush in the final totals, Ohio State's top two options combined for just 52 yards on 15 carries.
The Longhorns are the pick based on a more elusive ground attack that should create yards after first contact.
Expect Muschamp to continue calling a Havoc-first defense with bracket coverage on Smith.
Along with the Buckeyes facing an elite aerial attack and ground game, Manning comes in as a more proven weapon on designed carries compared to Sayin.
Pick: Texas ML -125 or Better
Ohio State vs Texas Betting Trends
