On Kalshi, the question is simple: will Disclosure Day, Steven Spielberg's new science fiction film, finish with a Rotten Tomatoes score of 87% or higher before the market closes on June 15, three days after the film opens nationwide?
As of June 9, the film debuted with a 90% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes. But that number is not locked in. Every new professional review counts, and the score can move up or down in the days ahead.
Early scores can shift significantly as more critics weigh in, especially when the first wave of reviews tends to be the most enthusiastic. Kalshi's current market consensus puts the final score just above 87%. Most traders don't think that number will collapse, but they aren't so sure it will rise above that.
A Director Out of This World
Disclosure Day is a thriller about a conspiracy orchestrated by corporations and government agencies to hide a world-altering truth: aliens exist, and they're already among us. The film stars Emily Blunt (Sicario, The Devil Wears Prada) and Josh O'Connor (Challengers). For Spielberg, who turns 80 this year, it marks a return to the genre he arguably owns.
Spielberg's relationship with science fiction is not casual. Close Encounters of the Third Kind (1977) earned eight Oscar nominations. E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial (1982) broke box office records, received nine nominations, and won four. These aren't just good movies: they're cultural landmarks that redefined what studio filmmaking could be.
But it isn't just sci-fi. Across more than five decades, Spielberg has delivered an almost unreasonable number of films that were both critically beloved and massive commercial hits.
His ten best-reviewed films on Rotten Tomatoes tell the story:
- E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial – 99%
- Schindler’s List – 98%
- Jaws – 97%
- Catch Me If You Can – 96%
- Raiders of the Lost Ark – 94%
- Saving Private Ryan – 94%
- The Fabelmans – 92%
- West Side Story (2021) – 91%
- Bridge of Spies – 91%
- Jurassic Park – 91%
Worth noting: two of those ten films, The Fabelmans and the West Side Story remake, came out this decade. Both underperformed at the box office, but critics loved them. The question for Disclosure Day is whether it follows the same path… or lands somewhere higher.
Even the Greats Have Their Valleys
The argument against is not that Spielberg is past his prime; it's that no career is immune to gravity.
Michael Jordan, the greatest basketball player in history, spent his final two seasons with the Washington Wizards posting pedestrian numbers and missing the playoffs. Tom Brady, who won seven Super Bowls, came out of retirement in 2022 and led the Buccaneers to a losing season before walking away for good. Legacy doesn't expire, but it doesn't guarantee the next chapter either.
Spielberg has had his valleys too. His ten weakest Rotten Tomatoes scores include Hook and 1941, both considered genuine misfires. Only three of his 34 films have scored below 60%, which by any measure is a remarkable hit rate. But the misses are real.
His ten worst-reviewed films on Rotten Tomatoes are:
- Hook – 37%
- 1941 – 39%
- The Lost World: Jurassic Park – 57%
- The Terminal – 61%
- Always – 70%
- Ready Player One – 71%
- The Color Purple – 72%
- War Horse – 74%
- The BFG – 74%
- The Adventures of Tintin – 75%
One more data point: the only sci-fi film from his recent filmography that appears on this weaker list is Ready Player One (2018), which landed at 71%. If Disclosure Day ends up closer to that tier, any awards conversation, including early Oscar buzz around Emily Blunt for best actress, likely fades quickly.
For more context, Metacritic, which uses a weighted average of professional reviews rather than a simple approval percentage, currently has the film at 73/100, well below Spielberg's recent critical successes like The Fabelmans (83) and West Side Story (85). The two systems measure different things, but the gap is worth keeping in mind as the Rotten Tomatoes number continues to settle.
For now, the early signal is strong. Whether it holds is the whole game. Grab your popcorn: this market is just getting started.
