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This has been an interesting change in NFL odds, as the Packers opened at -7.5 before freefalling down to -4.5 in some markets. Unlike their first two games, the Falcons have a familiar face under center this time, which partly explains the line move. However, Green Bay has struggled, even needing overtime to knock off Gang Green on Sunday, making this a matchup of two teams that need to get it right.
The NFC primetime showdown has plenty of angles, so you'll find our three Falcons vs. Packers best bets to help you win.
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Polymarket NFL Odds: Falcons vs. Packers Preview & Best Bets
| Market | Atlanta Falcons | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +4.5 (49%) | -4.5 (52%) |
| Moneyline | 31% | 70% |
| Total | Over 42.5 (52%) | Under 42.5 (49%) |
Kickoff for Falcons vs. Packers is at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, September 24, 2026. Check Polymarket before the game begins for the most up-to-date odds.
Green Bay opened -7.5 on Sunday, moved to -6.5 Monday, hit -6/-5.5 Tuesday, and sat at -4.5 by Thursday morning, largely because Michael Penix Jr. returns from last season's torn ACL to make his first start. Atlanta officially named Penix its Week 3 starter on Monday, ending a two-week stretch in which Cooper Rush struggled badly, and rookie Jack Strand threw an interception on his first career pass. Rush tossed four picks in two weeks, and the Falcons currently rank dead last in the NFL in EPA per play on offense. Two full points of movement on a quarterback swap tells you the market respects the upgrade, and reverse line moves like this one shape our Falcons vs. Packers best bets more than any power rating does.
Take the Falcons spread. Jordan Love completes just 52% of his attempts behind a paper-thin offensive line, and he faces an Atlanta defense playing aggressively under blitz-heavy new coordinator Jeff Ulbrich. Green Bay managed only 199 total yards last week, needed overtime to beat the Jets, and now plays without receiver Jayden Reed (neck). Teams starting 0-2 straight up have gone 30-12 against the spread (71.4%) as Week 3 underdogs since 2015. Penix hands Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts a functional passing game, and Robinson averaged 53.7 receiving yards in Penix's starts last season. A short week, rain-soaked tape, and a sub-44 total all point to a tight, ugly game.
Falcons vs. Packers Best Bets
Jordan Love: Over 31.5 Passing Attempts (50%)
Green Bay trailed for stretches of an overtime slog against the Jets and still leaned on Love enough to justify this number at an even price. Jayden Reed sits out with a neck injury, which pushes more of the route tree onto Christian Watson and the tight ends and typically means shorter, higher-volume dropbacks. Atlanta's new coordinator, Jeff Ulbrich, blitzes heavily, and the quick game beats pressure, so the Packers should answer with tempo and quantity rather than deep shots. Love completes just 52% of his attempts through two weeks, and low completion rates inflate attempt totals because incompletions keep drives alive on third down. A coin-flip price on the more likely outcome makes this the cleanest of my Falcons vs. Packers best bets.
Bijan Robinson: Over 140 Scrimmage Yards (39%)
Robinson opened the season with eight catches for 90 yards before Atlanta's Week 2 blowout loss to Carolina shrank his workload to nothing. Michael Penix Jr. changes that math, since Robinson averaged 53.7 receiving yards in Penix's nine starts last season and functions as the safety valve this offense has lacked for two weeks. Green Bay defends the run well, so the path here runs through the passing game, with screens and checkdowns doing the heavy lifting against a blitz-inviting front. Atlanta owns the worst offense in the league by EPA per play and has yet to reach the red zone, which means every yard of field position runs through its best player. Robinson has at least 168 yards from scrimmage in each of his last four road games, dating back to last season.
Christian Watson: Anytime Touchdown (37%)
Watson ranks seventh in the NFL in total targets with 19 through two games, including 11 against the Jets, and he opened the year with six catches for 148 yards and two scores. Reed's absence concentrates that target share further, leaving Watson as the clear No. 1 on a team that needs someone to finish drives. Atlanta lost cornerback A.J. Terrell to injured reserve with a groin issue, and the secondary behind him let Bryce Young throw for 287 yards and three touchdowns last week. Green Bay stays favored by roughly six points, which implies enough scoring for its top receiver to reach the end zone at least once. At 37%, the price sits below where the target volume and the coverage matchup point.
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