The New Hampshire Senate race and the New Hampshire Governor race both have clear favorites on Polymarket and Kalshi, but the Pappas vs Sununu polls and the Ayotte vs Warmington polls paint two very different pictures.
Chris Pappas, John E. Sununu, Kelly Ayotte and Cinde Warmington all have live contracts on both exchanges, and each platform also lists a Governor-Senate combo market.
Pappas vs Sununu polls have run from a two-point Sununu edge to an eight-point Pappas lead, while Ayotte vs Warmington polls have stayed in a band of roughly nine to twelve points for the incumbent.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms before voters head to the polls on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Hampshire Senate Race | Polymarket | Chris Pappas | YES (90¢) | $111.11 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| New Hampshire Senate Race | Polymarket | John E. Sununu | YES (12¢) | $833.33 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| New Hampshire Senate Race | Kalshi | Chris Pappas | YES (90¢) | $111.11 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| New Hampshire Senate Race | Kalshi | John E. Sununu | YES (11¢) | $909.09 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| New Hampshire Governor Race | Polymarket | Kelly Ayotte | YES (94¢) | $106.38 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| New Hampshire Governor Race | Polymarket | Cinde Warmington | YES (6¢) | $1,666.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| New Hampshire Governor Race | Kalshi | Kelly Ayotte | YES (94¢) | $106.38 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| New Hampshire Governor Race | Kalshi | Cinde Warmington | YES (6.1¢) | $1,639.34 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current New Hampshire Senate race and New Hampshire Governor race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
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New Hampshire Senate Election and New Hampshire Governor Race Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's New Hampshire contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both the Senate market and the Governor market resolve on the winner of the November 3 general election.
A methodology note: Polymarket's Senate and Governor boards only quote each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price, since a win for one candidate is a loss for the other in each two-way race. The combo board quotes both sides directly.
New Hampshire Senate Race 2026
Polymarket has Democrat Chris Pappas at 90% to win the open seat, and the market page labels the New Hampshire Senate race "Likely D."
Chris Pappas (YES 90¢ / NO 12¢)
Pappas has represented New Hampshire's 1st District in the House since 2019 and is running for the seat Jeanne Shaheen is vacating.
The newest Pappas vs Sununu polls favor him, with AARP showing a 51-44 lead, YouGov at 51-43 and NPA Polling at 50-43 in mid-October.
John E. Sununu (YES 12¢ / NO 90¢)
Sununu held this seat from 2003 to 2009, carries Donald Trump's endorsement and owns one of the best-known last names in New Hampshire politics.
His 12¢ price is more than a token long shot. A late August UNH poll had him up 45-43, a September co/efficient survey showed a 46-46 tie, and the Cook Political Report moved the contest to Toss Up after the primaries.
New Hampshire Governor Race 2026
The Governor board is even more lopsided, with Polymarket tagging the New Hampshire Governor race "Safe R" and pricing the incumbent at better than 15-to-1.
Kelly Ayotte (YES 94¢ / NO 6¢)
Ayotte is seeking her first reelection as governor, and UNH measured her job approval at 49% against 42% disapproval in late August.
Ayotte vs Warmington polls back the price, with UNH showing her ahead 49-39 and the major polling averages putting her up roughly 10 to 12 points.
Cinde Warmington (YES 6¢ / NO 94¢)
Warmington is a former executive councilor who lost the 2024 Democratic primary for governor, and a July UNH poll found 43% of voters still didn't know enough about her to have an opinion.
Her closest reading came in that July survey at 44-39, and Ayotte has since made Warmington's past work lobbying for the opioid industry a centerpiece of the campaign.
New Hampshire Senate Race and New Hampshire Governor Race: Kalshi Odds
Kalshi lists both contests as regulated event contracts with Yes and No tradable on every line, so the board shows the full spread rather than a single implied number.
Both contracts resolve by winning party after the November 3 election, and more than $2.29 million has already traded on the Senate market compared with roughly $231,000 on the Governor board.
New Hampshire Senate Race 2026
Kalshi's Senate board matches Polymarket on Pappas and shaves a cent off Sununu, and its margin forecast reads D +7.6.
Chris Pappas (YES 90¢ / NO 11¢, -1 pts)
Pappas slipped a point to an 89% chance on the board, a modest dip that leaves most of his cushion intact.
The forecast lines up with the stronger Pappas vs Sununu polls, though the co/efficient survey measured his favorability at just 37% against 51% unfavorable.
John E. Sununu (YES 11¢ / NO 90.1¢, +1 pts)
Sununu gained a point, and Republicans have a case to make: the Cook Political Report noted that GOP polling has shown the race tied or with Sununu ahead.
Public surveys have not shown that lately, which is why the market still treats the New Hampshire Senate election as a heavy Democratic lean.
New Hampshire Governor Race 2026
Kalshi's Governor board mirrors Polymarket almost tick for tick, and its margin forecast reads R +9.7.
Kelly Ayotte (YES 94¢ / NO 6.2¢)
The 94¢ price sits right on top of the polling averages, which Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne and 270toWin all have in the 10 to 12 point range.
Forecasters agree, with Cook at Likely Republican and Inside Elections and Silver Bulletin both at Solid Republican.
Cinde Warmington (YES 6.1¢ / NO 94.3¢)
Warmington is a tenth of a cent pricier than on Polymarket, and her path runs through housing costs, property taxes and Ayotte's Medicaid premium plan.
Democrats are also trying to tie Ayotte to Trump, who has lost New Hampshire in three straight presidential elections, but the Ayotte vs Warmington polls haven't shown that message closing the gap.
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New Hampshire Governor-Senate Combo Bets
Both exchanges let traders bet on how the two races land together, pairing a Governor outcome with a Senate outcome in a single contract.
A split ticket with Ayotte winning the Governor race and Pappas winning the Senate race is the clear favorite on both boards, a Republican sweep is next, and the two outcomes involving a Warmington win are long shots.
Polymarket and Kalshi each price all four possible pairings, though Kalshi did not display a No price on its Warmington and Sununu line.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Kelly Ayotte and Chris Pappas win (split ticket) | YES 84¢ | NO 17¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Kelly Ayotte and John E. Sununu win (GOP sweep) | YES 10¢ | NO 91¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Cinde Warmington and Chris Pappas win (Dem sweep) | YES 4¢ | NO 97¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Cinde Warmington and John E. Sununu win (split ticket) | YES 2¢ | NO 99¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Kelly Ayotte and Chris Pappas win (split ticket) | YES 88¢ | NO 16¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Kelly Ayotte and John E. Sununu win (GOP sweep) | YES 11¢ | NO 90¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Cinde Warmington and Chris Pappas win (Dem sweep) | YES 5¢ | NO 96¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Cinde Warmington and John E. Sununu win (split ticket) | YES 2¢ | N/A | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the New Hampshire Senate Election and Governor Race
The two boards agree on every favorite. Pappas sits at YES 90¢ on both exchanges, while Ayotte is at YES 94¢ on both.
The underdogs tell the same story in reverse. Sununu trades at YES 12¢ on Polymarket and YES 11¢ on Kalshi, and Warmington is at YES 6¢ and YES 6.1¢, respectively.
The widest gap is on the combo boards, where an Ayotte and Pappas split ticket is YES 84¢ on Polymarket and YES 88¢ on Kalshi. Part of that is spread, since Kalshi's own chance tracker shows 86% for the same outcome.
The bigger divergence is between the Senate board and the surveys. Pappas vs Sununu polls have ranged from UNH's 45-43 Sununu edge to YouGov's 51-43 Pappas lead, yet neither exchange has Pappas below YES 90¢.
Where the platforms genuinely differ is in contract design: Kalshi quotes both Yes and No on its head-to-head boards, while Polymarket only displays each candidate's Yes price on its Senate and Governor boards.
New Hampshire Senate Election Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The Senate board is where the tension lives. The New Hampshire Senate election sits at 90¢ for Pappas on both exchanges, even though Cook moved the contest to Toss Up after the primaries and some surveys have shown a dead heat.
The most recent data explains the cushion. AARP, YouGov and NPA Polling all had Pappas up seven or eight points in October, and Kalshi's margin forecast reads D +7.6.
The Governor race is the calmer of the two. Ayotte vs Warmington polls have shown the incumbent up roughly nine to twelve points, and most forecasters rate the race Likely or Solid Republican.
The next round of Pappas vs Sununu polls is the likeliest trigger for a repricing before Election Day on November 3. New Hampshire allows same-day voter registration, which leaves some turnout uncertainty that pre-election surveys can miss.
How to Trade the NH Senate Race & NH Governor Race on Polymarket & Kalshi
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
New Hampshire Senate Race and New Hampshire Governor Race: Final Thoughts
This is two favorite-driven boards with very different levels of polling risk: a Governor race where Ayotte is a 94¢ favorite on both exchanges and the surveys agree, and a New Hampshire Senate election where Pappas is a 90¢ favorite despite polls that have ranged from a Sununu lead to a Pappas blowout.
Watch the combo board for the clearest read on how traders see the two races landing together. An Ayotte and Pappas split ticket is the dominant outcome on both Polymarket and Kalshi, and the final round of polling is the most likely thing to change that picture before November 3.
New Hampshire Senate Race and New Hampshire Governor Race FAQs
What are the current New Hampshire Senate race odds?
Chris Pappas is trading at 90¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while John E. Sununu sits at 12¢ on Polymarket and 11¢ on Kalshi.
What are the current New Hampshire Governor race odds?
Kelly Ayotte is priced at 94¢ on both exchanges, while Cinde Warmington is at 6¢ on Polymarket and 6.1¢ on Kalshi.
What do the latest Pappas vs Sununu Polls show?
Recent surveys from AARP, YouGov and NPA Polling have Pappas ahead 51-44, 51-43 and 50-43, while a late August UNH poll had Sununu up 45-43 and a September co/efficient poll showed a 46-46 tie.
What do the latest Ayotte vs Warmington Polls show?
A late August UNH poll had Ayotte ahead 49-39, and a more recent survey reported in early October put her lead at nine points. Polling averages from Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne and 270toWin have her up roughly 10 to 12 points.
How do Pappas vs Sununu Polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
The markets are more confident than the polling spread suggests, with both exchanges keeping Pappas at 90¢ even though some surveys have shown a tie or a narrow Sununu edge.
Are Ayotte vs Warmington Polls tightening before Election Day?
Not consistently. A July UNH poll had the race at 44-39, the August UNH poll widened it to 49-39, and the early October reading was nine points. Neither exchange has moved Warmington much beyond 6¢.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi price the New Hampshire Senate election slightly differently?
The boards are within a cent of each other. Small gaps like Sununu at 12¢ versus 11¢ usually reflect different trader bases and order-book depth rather than a real disagreement about the race.
What do the New Hampshire Governor-Senate combo bets show?
Polymarket prices an Ayotte and Pappas split ticket at 84¢, a GOP sweep at 10¢, a Democratic sweep at 4¢ and a Warmington and Sununu split at 2¢. Kalshi prices the same four outcomes at 88¢, 11¢, 5¢ and 2¢.
When is the New Hampshire Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026, and New Hampshire allows same-day voter registration.
How do I trade the New Hampshire Senate race and New Hampshire Governor race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
