If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
The postseason is officially here, and we have a packed 4-game slate on deck as the MLB Wild Card Series kicks off with Game 1 today.
We have picks for Phillies vs. Braves at 2:00 PM ET, White Sox vs. Astros at 5:00 PM ET, Red Sox vs. Yankees at 8:00 PM ET, and Cubs vs. Padres at 10:00 PM ET.
Read below for our 6 MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, September 29.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 2:00 PM | |
  | 5:00 PM | |
  | 8:00 PM | |
| 8:00 PM | |
  | 10:00 PM | |
| 10:00 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sean Paul's Phillies vs Braves Total Pick
By Sean Paul
Jesus Luzardo will take the ball in game one for the Phillies. On paper, that's a good thing since he owns a career-best 2.85 ERA with a 2.83 xERA and 2.78 FIP. However, Luzardo has thrown just one inning since September 7th due to an injury.
What can Philly expect from him? Who knows? That's the beauty of the playoffs. Luzardo's last full outing was a complete-game shutout with nine strikeouts against this same Braves team.
Phillies manager Don Mattingly clarified that Luzardo is the "opener". Given that it's the playoffs, Luzardo could probably pitch between 1 and 4 innings. If it's a shorter stint, expect Andrew Painter to fill multiple innings. He was solid upon returning to the bigs, posting a 3.28 ERA in September.
Very few players have aged as gracefully as Braves hurler Chris Sale. At 36 years old, Sale turned in one of his best seasons, posting a 2.16 ERA with a 2.97 xERA and 2.26 FIP. He's also averaging 96.2 mph on his fastball, the hardest since his rookie year, as a reliever. That's led to an 11 K/9 and a career-best 0.55 HR/9.
The Braves should expect seven innings from Sale, leading to Robert Suarez and Raisel Iglesias in the final two frames.
In all, this feels like a budding pitcher's duel. Sale should shut down the Phillies, who struggle to hit lefties and are limping into the playoffs.
While Luzardo is pitching, he should contain the Braves, but Painter and the Phillies pen will need to add in some clean frames to hit the under.
Related Articles
Pick: Under 6.5 (+102; Play to 6)
| | | | | |
BARTOLO White Sox vs Astros Over/Under Projection
By Action Network Staff
Sean Zerillo's projections show solid value on the total in this White Sox vs. Astros matchup, with a 5.5% edge on the under.
BARTOLO projects 3.79 props/runs-and-bases" target="_blank" rel="noopener">runs for the White Sox and 3.83 runs for the Astros with the total projected to 7.62, well under the 8.5 line offered.
If you want to dive deeper into this game, check out BARTOLO, Zerillo's new PRO baseball tool that gives you access to all the input data he uses to project games every day.
Related Articles
Pick: Under 8.5 (-122)
| | | | | |
Matt Trollo's Red Sox vs Yankees K Prop
By Matt Trollo
Utilizing a couple of different weather sources, including BARTOLO, it looks like the upper 60s with hardly any wind at all blowing out to the right is the consensus forecast here, but we also have a day to go at the time of this writing.
The Yankee Stadium run environment is 2% above average (Statcast rolling three-year), which could be knocked down 1-4% using the same weather sources.
BARTOLO has not updated umpire assignments, but Nate Tomlinson has been officially confirmed and appears to be a neutral umpire.
Altogether, we’re expecting a neutral run environment, though Yankee Stadium plays left-handed home runs up 20% and right-handed home runs 15%. I’m not playing any home run props against these pitchers.
I have Schlittler almost exactly one-quarter of a run ahead of Tolle.
I do disagree with BARTOLO slightly in that I see this Yankee lineup as slightly more dangerous against LHP, as well as being better at home than Boston is on the road and much better over the last month of the season, as much as that carries into the post-season, if at all.
I neglected to mention base running in total, but by BRR (Base Running Runs) the Yankee projected lineup has Boston by a sum of 3 to 1. Chisholm Jr. and Duran are the superior base runners in this game at 5 BRR each, though neither has done a lot of getting on base against LHP.
Defense is the biggest Boston edge and I still have to side with them slightly on bullpens, though, as mentioned, if the Yankees play this right, that edge just about entirely disappears.
I’m very much aligned with the totals in this game, be it full game, first five innings or team.
If I squint very hard, I can see just a bit of daylight between my projection and the current offering on Novig of NYY -127 (56%). It’s not an edge I’d push during the regular season, especially with the lineup uncertainty and it goes away just about completely when utilizing the best numbers from only traditional sportsbooks.
There is one perceived edge I will push, though and both the pitcher and the spot make up for one of the very few post-season spots where I would do this.
Schlittler has struck out LHBs (36.4%) more often than RHBs (26.4%) and projecting him to face 23 batters on average, that would be 13/10 with BARTOLO’s projected lineup.
The first 23 batters in said projected lineup average a 23.8 K% against RHP this season. There are four batters in this projected lineup with a 27.5 K% or higher against RHP this year and only one (Duran) can be considered a questionable lineup projection.
Schlittler struck out 31.4% both at home and on the road, so that makes no difference. However, the park gives him a 3% boost with this particular projected lineup structure with weather conservatively forecast to take only 1% back.
Finally, while Tomlinson has little effect on run scoring, he does offer a 6-7% bump in strikeouts, which ends up being the deciding factor here.
I know playing pitcher K prop overs in the postseason is a dicey proposition, but I believe this is one pitcher and spot that merits it. Considering Boston's 2.5 team run total, the expectation should be for Schlittler to pitch deep into this game.
Novig is currently offering 44% (+128), but DraftKings at +120 is fine too, but I'd probably drop to 0.5u in that case. I do want the positive number here, though. I’m not that crazy.
Related Articles
Pick: Cam Schlittler Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+128)
| | | | | |
Charlie Wright's Red Sox vs Yankees F5 Pick
Payton Tolle has been confirmed as Boston's Game 1 starter, making this a premier pitching matchup.
Tolle has had a tremendous first full season in the majors. He posted a 1.53 ERA in September.
Cam Schlittler is going to win the AL Cy Young. He's allowed 1 ER or fewer in 25 of 33 starts.
Pick: F5 Under 3.5 (-146)
| | | | | |
Jon Anderson's Cubs vs Padres 2 Picks
By Jon Anderson
My lean is to the Padres taking this series. They probably have the slight advantage in starting pitching; they have a much better bullpen, and they're at home. The lineup advantage goes to the Cubs, but not by a ton. I'll take the Padres on the series line.
My projections really like the OVER in this game. Every other game is projected very low-scoring today, but this is the one where we like offense. The Padres bullpen is a problem, but the Cubs will get a couple of looks at Michael King before having to deal with that, and they were not an offense that could be held off the scoreboard during the regular season.
I've got the game going for nine runs with the Padres holding onto a 52% chance to win game one.
Related Articles
Picks: Over 7 Runs (-119) & Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (+117)
| | | | | |
Ryan Minion's Cubs vs Padres Best Bet
By Ryan Minion
The Cubs and Padres will duke it out on Tuesday night at Petco Park in San Diego for Game 1 in a best-of-3 playoff series with a trip to the NLDS at stake.
Michael King will take the mound for the Friars, while the Cubbies will trot out lefty Matthew Boyd.
Given the Cubs’ depleted rotation heading into Game 1 in San Diego, this presents a prime opportunity to back Padres superstar slugger Fernando Tatis Jr. to continue his scorching form at the plate with another impressive showing.
Despite Chicago’s veteran southpaw having recorded a decent 2026 campaign, finishing with a 3.91 ERA, this is a matchup that heavily favors Tatis.
In addition to Tatis’ natural platoon edge as a right-handed hitter, the Friars’ star has historically demolished left-handed pitching — slugging .470 over the course of his career.
Tatis’ platoon advantage has been particularly greater this season as the 27-year-old posting a whopping .583 SLG% versus left-handed pitching in 2026.
Boyd relies heavily on locating his four-seam fastball in the zone, boasting impressive command, which has allowed him to get ahead in counts over the course of his career.
Fernando boasts both exceptional bat-speed and hard-hit metrics against soft-to-medium velocity lefties, and given his ability to do heavy damage, frequently hitting for extra bases versus contact-inducing southpaws.
In 16 career playoff games, Tatis Jr. is batting .317 with 19 hits and six homers to go along with 12 RBIs.
Fernando’s postseason metrics at Petco Park are even more glaring, batting .425 with a 1.969 OPS and having smashed five of his six career playoff homers in San Diego.
Moreover, I feel quite confident investing shares on Tatis Jr. to exceed his 1.5 HRR mark at 54% on Kalshi in what I expect to be another monster postseason statline for “El Niño” in front of a lively “Friar faithful” crowd on Tuesday night.
Pick: Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-144)
| | | | | |
