In the days after Ken Paxton beat John Cornyn in the May 26 Republican primary runoff, Polymarket priced a Democratic win in the Texas Senate race at 38.5 cents. As of this weekend, it's 63 cents.
Texas is close for one reason: some Republicans who would have voted for Cornyn without a second thought are now backing Democratic candidate James Talarico, or leaving the Senate line blank. That group decides the race. Can Democrats actually win in the Texas Senate race?
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Ken Paxton Flailing in Texas Senate Odds
A Fox News poll (Sept. 24–28, 881 likely voters) found 20% of March Cornyn primary voters now back Talarico. That bloc has shrunk since the runoff, as Senate Majority Leader John Thune, the NRSC, and Cornyn himself have backed Paxton. Paxton's own baggage has prevented another Texas Senate blowout, with only 40% of likely voters viewing him favorably, and 58% unfavorably.
These are old-guard establishment Republicans, concentrated in the Dallas–Fort Worth suburbs, and a group Talarico has openly courted, from the endorsement of Dan Cogdell, Paxton's former impeachment lawyer, to the "Republicans for Talarico" group that launched in Dallas on Sept. 10 amid the Republican National Committee's midterm convention.
Talarico Sees Bigger Odds Edge in Pro Model
In the Prediction Pro Midterms model's 40,000-draw race simulation, Texas delivers Senate control more often than any other race, at 7.1% of draws, just ahead of Iowa and Alaska. The governor's market highlights how much of that is Paxton. Polymarket has Democrat Gina Hinojosa at 26.5 cents against Republican incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott, while Talarico trades at 66.5.
That's a 40-point split among the same statewide voter pool, and it's the cleanest read on the board for a candidate effect rather than an environmental one.
The polls say Talarico, narrowly. Fox has him up 51–49, Texas Southern 47–46, AARP 48–44, a lead of two to four points among likely voters. The question is whether to believe the polling. Texas polls have understated Republicans in each of the last three cycles, with Cornyn in 2020, Abbott in 2022, and Cruz in 2024 all winning by more than their final polling averages.
The case for this year being different comes down to turnout. Fox finds 76% of MAGA Republicans certain to vote against 65% of non-MAGA Republicans, while three-quarters of Democrats say the same. The Republicans most likely to stay home are the ones Paxton desperately needs to turn out.
The Prediction Pro Midterms model weighs the polls against that history. It starts from Texas's 2024 lean (R+13.9), adjusts for the national environment (a generic Democrat would lose Texas by about 5 points this year), and fuses 42 public polls, landing at Talarico 57.3%, Paxton 42.7%. To make the race a coin flip, Talarico needs to run about 5 points ahead of a generic Democrat. The market is pricing him at nearly +7. So, while Talarico is the favorite, the market isn't pricing him as the two-to-one favorite it implies.
How to Trade Texas Senate Odds
Call it a lean Talarico, not yet a trade on the 2026 midterms elections. On the model alone, Paxton at 35 cents has about a 7-point edge. Blend in the market price the way the desk does before acting, and it shrinks to under 2, short of the 3-point bar for a stated position. The market is probably a few cents rich on Talarico, just not by enough to bet against it.
Early voting in Texas runs Oct. 19 to Oct. 30. Watch turnout in Collin, Denton and Tarrant counties. If the old-guard Republicans do show up there and the margins look like 2024, the 35 cents on Paxton will look cheap. If they stay home, 66 cents on Talarico will have been the right price all along.
